Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 6 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Ravens - At 1-4 the Bucs are not a doormat team, despite their poor showing on Thursday night against the Falcons in Week 3. Rather, they started the season with poor QB play from Josh McCown, before realizing their mistake and moving on to (back to?) Mike Glennon. The upgrade that he provides is somewhat marginal, as he's 20th in YPA (6.86) and 27th in completion percentage (58.2) this season. He might not even be that good though, as he put those stats up against the Falcons, Steelers, and Saints, two of which (ATL & NO) are among the bottom five defenses in the league. The Ravens don't have a special pass rush, as they're averaging just one sack per game, but they've been decent in pass coverage and last week picked off Andrew Luck twice. Their run defense has been their strength, holding teams to just 3.4 yards per carry, sixth best in the league. RB Doug Martin is averaging a pathetic 2.5 YPC, yet somehow continues to remain the starter and get touches. It remains a mystery as to why Bobby Rainey doesn't see more touches, as he's clearly the more productive back. Part of the problem may be that the Bucs don't even have their primary offensive coordinator right now, as Jeff Tedford is on indefinite leave due to heart problems, leaving the coordinator duties to QB coach Marcus Arroyo, who has no NFL experience. Getting back to the players, the Bucs should be getting WR Mike Evans back, after he missed time with a groin injury. At the TE position, rookie Austin Seferian-Jenkins is learning to hone his craft at the NFL level and has been a non-factor in the three games he's played in. The only real way I see the Bucs getting on track offensively is if Jackson goes off and/or the Bucs special teams make some big plays. Vegas has this over/under set at 43 with the Ravens favored by three, which puts this at about a 23-20 game. Facing the Bucs on the road, the Ravens defense/special teams have an ownership of 16.3 percent at ESPN and 33 percent at Yahoo.

Colts - In the NFL, you score points by throwing the ball and no team attempts fewer passes than the Houston Texans. Not coincidentally, they average 1.8 offensive touchdowns per-game, fourth fewest in the league. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 7.71 YPA, which is tied for 10th best in the league, yet the team has shown little faith in him to lead the offense, which is somewhat understandable, as he has more interceptions (six) than passing touchdowns (five) on the season. In general, the offense relies on their three biggest and maybe only playmakers in RB Arian Foster and WRs Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. When Foster is healthy, as he appears to be right now, few can carry a running game like him. The Colts are below average against the run, giving up 4.6 YPC, but again, running the ball is what the Colts should want the Texans to do, as it limits their ability to move the ball down the field for chunk yardage. Johnson has neither scored a TD this season, nor gone over 100 yards receiving in a game, both of which speak to his poor QB play and perhaps his eroding skills, as this is his 12th season in the league. Hopkins, his fellow WR, presents more issues as he's younger, quicker, and is a bigger threat down the field. I'd feel better about this pick if the Colts were at home, as three of the four blow-out Thursday night games have gone to the home team, but I still feel pretty good, as it's tough to see the Texans scoring enough points to keep up with the Colts, should they find themselves in an early deficit. Vegas has this over/under set at 46 with the Colts favored by three, which puts this at about a 24-21 game. Facing the Texans at home, the Colts defense/special teams have an ownership of 10.1 percent at ESPN and 39 percent at Yahoo.

Giants - Last season the Eagles were one of the best offenses in the league, averaging 6.2 yards per play. This season though, they're averaging just 5.3 YPP, in part because they've had to deal with multiple injuries to their offensive line. Not surprisingly, Pro Football Focus rates their pass blocking the sixth worst in the league. QB Nick Foles hasn't helped matters ranking 26th in completion percentage (59.1) and 22nd in YPA (6.80). He doesn't lack for weapons to throw to and yet the offense still has not gotten on track this season. RB LeSean McCoy is only averaging 2.9 YPC, a season after leading the league in rushing yards. The Giants have been average against the run, as teams have opted to throw the ball against their suspect secondary that gives up 7.6 YPA. WRs Jeremy Maclin and Jordan Matthews could certainly take advantage, though it would be somewhat of an upset for TE Zach Ertz to have a big game, as the Giants have allowed just 16 catches for 223 yards and no touchdowns to TEs this season. One area where the Giants defense really does excel is on third downs, as they've allowed the third lowest conversion percentage (32.8) this season. In the red zone they've been efficient too, allowing the sixth fewest percentage of touchdowns (46.7) to be converted. The fear here is that this game becomes a shootout and both defenses are left watching as the bullets fly. Still, the Eagles have a pretty banged up offensive line, which should leave them vulnerable to sacks and ill-advised throws from Foles. Vegas has this over/under set at 50 with the Eagles favored by three, which puts this at about a 27-24 game. Facing the Eagles on the road, the Giants defense/special teams have an ownership of 4.2 percent at ESPN and 10 percent at Yahoo.

Dolphins - Coming off a bye, I expect the Dolphins to be rested and ready to take on the Packers at home. Before the bye they had three very productive games for fantasy owners with a stinker sandwiched in there. In terms of yards per play, they're the best, allowing just 4.7 YPP, which is largely because they're the best pass defense, holding teams to just 5.7 YPA. They also rank fifth in sacks per game at 2.8, making them one of the better units at pressuring QBs as well. The only thing that concerns me about those stats is they've faced some pretty below average offenses in the Patriots, Bills, Chiefs, and Raiders. Still, coming off the bye should help them, especially in their linebacking corps, where they've dealt with multiple injuries. The Packers are a hot offense right now, coming off their Thursday night throttling of the Vikings. They've dealt with their share of offensive line woes and finally looked to have RB Eddie Lacy back on track last week. I suspect he will find more tough sledding against the Dolphins though, as they've given up just 3.8 YPC, which is eighth best in the league. The biggest concern is of course QB Aaron Rodgers, who is among the best QBs in the game and doesn't lack for pass options with WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. The Packers have no TE of consequence and rookie Davante Adams is still picking up the third WR role, but Rodgers still finds a way to make plays. I would get into his stats more, but they're what you expect from a perennial MVP candidate. The real reason to back the Dolphins here is they're at home, rested, and have shown themselves so far to be one of the best defenses in the league. If they can get to Rodgers a few times and slow up Lacy, the Dolphins have a decent shot of keeping the score respectable and helping owners. Vegas has this over/under set at 49 with the Packers favored by three, which puts this at about a 26-23 game. Facing the Packers at home, the Dolphins defense/special teams have an ownership of 14.3 percent at ESPN and 19 percent at Yahoo.

Packers - The Packers are coming off a few extra days of rest, after they crushed the Vikings on Thursday night last week. The Dolphins themselves are rested, coming off their bye week, as mentioned above. Before their bye, the team openly questioned if Ryan Tannehill should be their QB moving forward. Against the Raiders he and the rest of the offense predictably had great performances. Before that though, Tannehill really struggled and his numbers on the season reflect that with a YPA (5.82) that ranks 32nd in the league and a completion percentage (60.0) that ranks 25th. It's understandable that the Dolphins are unsure if Tannehill is the man for the job, as he has not progressed as a QB, at least not statistically from his rookie season. In 2013 his worst QB rating came in the fourth quarter (64.3), a trend that has continued into 2014 (53.2). WR Mike Wallace is having an improved 2014 season, after struggling his first season with the team. After him though, it's tough to find a dependable option, as WR Brian Hartline is averaging 40 yards per game, while TE Charles Clay and WR Jarvis Landry are both seeing less than 28 yards per game. To their credit, the Packers have allowed just 6.0 YPA, which ranks fifth best this season. They're also averaging 2.4 sacks per game, which ranks ninth. RB Knowshon Moreno is back from his elbow injury and will play in this game, though it's unknown at this time just how much of the load he'll get, as he works with Lamar Miller. The Dolphins also get C/G Mike Pouncey back this week as well, so expect their run game to not miss a beat. The Packers defensive fantasy stats are somewhat inflated on the season, after that blowout win against the Vikings, but they did well to hold the Lions and Bears to a combined 36 points in Weeks 3 and 4, both of which were games on the road. The hope here is that the Dolphins offense remains lethargic, averaging just 5.1 YPP (sixth worst in the league) and the Packers are able to take advantage of a still uninspiring Tannehill. Vegas has this over/under set at 49 with the Packers favored by three, which puts this at about a 26-23 game. Facing the Dolphins on the road, the Packers defense/special teams have an ownership of 8.1 percent at ESPN and 24 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next four weeks and the remainder of the season:

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Cowboys (vs Texans) - 17 points allowed, 1 incerception

Giants (vs Falcons) - 20 points allowed, 1 sack, 1 interception

Titans (vs Browns) - 27 points allowed, 1 sack, 1 interception

Browns (at Titans) - 28 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 safety, 1 blocked kick

Jets (at Chargers) - 31 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 interception