Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 14 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Vikings - It's always a good idea to pick on the Jets and their inept offense and this week is no different. The Vikings will first and foremost need to stop the Jets running game, which is averaging 4.8 YPC, second best in the league. The Vikings defense gives up on average 4.4 YPC, which ranks 23rd. That might seem like a big mismatch, but running the ball will only take you so far in the NFL, when you don't have a QB that can help you convert third downs, as we all saw on MNF, when the Jets ran for 277 yards on 5.7 YPC, yet only managed 5.1 YPP because Geno Smith is terrible. And that's the other part to picking the Vikings, picking on Smith and the Jets passing game, which averages 5.1 YPA, which is last in the league. The Vikings rank 12th in YPA (6.7), but they just need to be average, to contain the Jets passing game. It helps that the Vikings average the fourth most sacks per game (2.9) and that the Jets give up the second most sacks per game (3.2). Given that mismatch, I would expect the Vikings to get at least a couple sacks, if not more, if the Jets decide to pass the ball more than they'd like. As far as offensive weapons go for the Jets, Chris Johnson has been playing much better of late, with 5.7 YPC or more in three of his last four games. On the season his 4.6 YPC is pretty good, though he's only gotten 109 carries. Outside of him, tough to say who really scares you, when WRs Eric Decker and Percy Harvin are at the mercy of whichever inept QB is under center on a given week. Each can present matchup problems in their own way, but not when Smith or Michael Vick are throwing them the ball. Lastly, the Jets haven't won a road game this season and rank second to last in offensive yards per play (4.4) on the road. I can't see them getting up for this game, especially after playing on MNF and hanging tough with a division foe. Vegas has this over/under set at 40.5 with the Vikings favored by 6, which puts this at about a 23-17 game. Facing the Jets at home, the Vikings defense/special teams has an ownership of 34.8 percent at ESPN and 49 percent at Yahoo.

Jaguars - Is this the real Ryan Fitzpatrick? As a Texans fan, I sure hope so. His track history says otherwise, as before this past Sunday he hadn't thrown for more than two TDs in a game and hadn't topped 300 yards once. The real difference maker in the Texans offense isn't Fitzpatrick on most weeks, rather it's RB Arian Foster, who was back from his groin injury and performing at a high level, as he averaged 4.2 YPC and caught five passes for 26 yards and TD against the Titans. He didn't suffer any setbacks in the game and should be good to go against the Jags, who rank 19th in YPC (4.3). They'll need to do better than that against Foster, who can gash even the best run defense, as he's the catalyst for the Texans offense, which runs the ball 50.45 percent of the time, second most in the league. Back to Fitzpatrick and the Texans passing game, it was hard to miss DeAndre Hopkins this past Sunday, as he torched the Titans for 238 yards and two TDs. The Jags are ranked 24th in YPA (7.2), so don't be surprised if the Texans test their secondary early in the game with throws to Hopkins, who seems to be the favorite target of Fitzpatrick. As for Andre Johnson, he'll see close to double-digit targets, but still is yet to top 100 yards this season and up until last week, had only one TD on the season. One area where the Jags excel is in their pass rush, as they rank third in sacks per game (3.1). Considering how often the Texans run the ball, it'll be tough to generate more sacks than that. The Texans have been consistent in their inconsistency this season, with back-to-back wins once, back in week two, when they beat the Redskins and then Raiders. Since then, they've followed up all of their wins with at least one loss. If you're wondering about the last time these two division foes met, it was last season in Week 14, when the Jags beat the Texans for a season sweep of them and their first home win of the season. Vegas has this over/under set at 42 with the Texans favored by 5, which puts this at about a 24-19 game. Facing the Texans at home, the Jags defense/special teams has an ownership of 0.9 percent at ESPN and 2 percent at Yahoo.

Browns - It theory it doesn't make much sense to pick on the Colts, as they average a league leading 6.2 yards per play, but their weakness on offense (running the ball) is the weakness of the Browns defense and their strength (passing the ball) is the Browns' strength, so we could be in for something of a stalemate, when the Colts have the ball. QB Andrew Luck ranks fourth in YPA (8.17), but also has the fifth most interceptions (11) on the season. It should be interesting to see him go up against a Browns defense that ranks tied for sixth in YPA (6.2) and is first in interceptions per game (1.4). Unfortunately, the Browns are without FS Tashaun Gipson, who lead the league in interceptions (six), before he was lost for the season with a knee injury. Still, CBs Joe Haden and Sheldon Brown are no joke and T.J. Ward is as good as they come at safety, so don't expect the secondary to all of a sudden crumble. I expect WR T.Y. Hilton to still get his, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Reggie Wayne struggle or not be a factor at all. As for TE Dwayne Allen, he returned to practice Wednesday and seems to be over his ankle injury that held him out for a couple weeks. The Browns have only allowed three TDs to TEs this season and two of them went to Jimmy Graham, so don't expect a big game out of Allen, even if he is heavily targeted. As for the ground game, the Colts will hope that Daniel Herron and Trent Richardson can do just enough to keep the Browns honest. The Browns rank 23rd in YPC (4.4), while the Colts rank 16th in YPC (4.1) and while that matchup would seem to favor the Colts, they no longer have Ahmad Bradshaw. Rather, they've had to turn to Herron, who did well against the Redskins with 88 yards on eight carries, one of which went for 49 yards. The problem is that they still give carries to Richardson, who averages 3.3 YPC and can seemingly do no right. I'm sure it seems crazy to test the Colts offense, but this is a very good Browns secondary and the Browns are at home, while the Colts haven't played a road game in over a month. Vegas has this over/under set at 49.5 with the Colts favored by 3.5, which puts this at about a 27-23 game. Facing the Colts at home, the Browns defense/special teams has an ownership of 18.9 percent at ESPN and 32 percent at Yahoo.

Bucs - Going on the road, as an almost 10 points underdog, the Bucs don't seem like a good option to stream this week, but maybe a better question is, should the Lions be favored by 10 points over anyone? The over/under of 41.5 tells you what you need to know, as this is expected to be a low scoring game in general and that makes sense, when you consider that the Lions rank 23rd in YPP (5.2) and the Bucs are right there with them at 18th (5.3). And while the Lions have one of the best defenses in the league this season, the Bucs are at least average, ranking 15th in YPP allowed (5.5). They've shown some real improvement over the last three games, giving up just 4.4 YPP, which is the best in the league over that span. That's right, over the last three weeks, the Bucs have had the best defense in the league on a YPP basis. How are they doing it? With their secondary, which intercepted three Andy Dalton passes last week, held Jay Cutler to just 4.8 YPA a week before, and picked RG3 twice the week before that. And while it wouldn't surprise me to see QB Matthew Stafford throw at least one pick, he's very likely to get sacked a couple of times, seeing as how he is third in the league with 35 sacks this season. He's also 26th in the league in completion percentage (60.4), which should surprise no one, given his poor mechanics and often unorthodox throwing angles. Matching up with WR Calvin Johnson is tough for anyone and the Bucs will be no different. They did a pretty good job against A.J. Green last week, holding him to four catches on eight targets for 57 yard. The previous week they held Brandon Marshall to three catches on five targets for 32 yards and Alshon Jeffery to three catches on four targets for 22 yards. Golden Tate presents his own set of issues as well, but isn't nearly the physical nightmare that Megatron is. As for the Lions run game, what Lions run game? They're average the second fewest yards per carry (3.3) in the league and don't figure to improve in this game, as the Bucs rank tied for seventh fewest YPC (3.9). Joique Bell is a nice straight forward runner, but does very little in the open field and as such has a YPC Of 3.5, which is pretty poor. Reggie Bush is expected back for this game, after dealing with an ankle injury for the last three weeks. What he gives the team is anyone's guess, but it's tough to see him doing much more in the passing game than what we've seen from Theo Riddick in his absence. I'm not excited to tout the Bucs here, but as mentioned earlier, it's a low over/under, the Bucs are a hot defense, and the Lions can't really run the ball. Vegas has this over/under set at 41.5 with the Lions favored by 9.5, which puts this at about a 26-16 game. Facing the Lions on the road, the Bucs defense/special teams has an ownership of 3.9 percent at ESPN and 9 percent at Yahoo.

Jets - As unproductive as the Jets are on offense, raking second to last in offensive YPP (4.7), the Vikings aren't much better, raking fourth to last in YPP (4.9). And much like the Jets, the Vikings problems start with QB play, as rookie Teddy Bridgewater has been slow to adjust to playing in the NFL. He has an 8:7 TD:INT ratio over nine games and in seven of those he threw one or no TDs. He's fairly mobile, but his longest run is only 16 yards, so don't get him confused as the next great dual threat. He ranks 25th in completion percentage (61.1), something that I don't expect to get all that better as the season winds down, as his weapons are unimpressive to say the least. Thankfully for him, TE Kyle Rudolph is back, though he has yet to make an impact in his two games since his return. As WRs go, the Vikings may have the worst corps in the league, as Greg Jennings, Jarius Wright, Cordarelle Patterson, and Charles Johnson don't move the needle or present matchup problems to opposing defenses. The Jets rank tied for 16th in YPA (7.1) and have overcome some of the injuries they've sustained in their secondary earlier this season. I could see Bridgewater making a few plays, but I don't expect him to take over the game. As for the Vikings run game, Jerick McKinnon is still not back to practice yet, as of Wednesday, this after missing Sunday's game with a back injury. If he cannot go or is limited, we'll likely see Matt Asiata and Ben Tate, the former of which is a more plodding back and won't do much in the open field to make defenders miss. The Jets are excellent against the run, holding teams to the third fewest YPC (3.5) this season, so even if McKinnon were to play, it's doubtful the Vikings would find much success on the ground. Overall this game should be a low scoring one, as neither team has shown they can pass the ball effectively. Vegas has this over/under set at 40.5 with the Vikings favored by 6, which puts this at about a 23-17 game. Facing the Vikings on the road, the Jets defense/special teams has an ownership of 2.7 percent at ESPN and 3 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next three weeks, and the remainder of the season (this week included):

Finally, heres how the picks from the previous week faired:

Browns (@ Bills) - 20 points allowed, 1 sack, 2 interceptions, 1 blocked kick

Rams (vs Raiders) - 0 points allowed, 6 sacks, 3 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 TD

Ravens (vs Chargers) - 34 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery

Vikings (vs Panthers) - 13 points allowed, 4 sacks, 1 interception, 2 blocked kicks, 2 TD

Bears (@ Lions) - 34 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery