Saturday Night Football DFS Breakdown

A quick review of Saturday's four teams makes it seem pretty clear that fantasy players will be targeting the Packers as much as they can, as they are sizable favorites against the Panthers in the game with the highest total, which gives them the highest implied team total, and the Panthers have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (or, as listed, the 21st fewest), the seventh-most to running backs, the 13th-most to wide receivers and eighth-most to tight ends. On the flip side, the Packers defense has been very good against the pass, which could mean many fantasy players avoid the Carolina pass catchers.

The other game is surprisingly close for a matchup between one team that's 10-3 and another that's 5-8, but Denver being at home certainly plays a part in the spread. The Bills are likely to be where those who want to fade the Packers go, though combining the two is possible to a certain degree.

QUARTERBACKS

Aaron Rodgers ($7,800 DK, $9,200 FD) and Josh Allen ($7,200 DK, $8,400 FD) have been excellent this season, as the former leads in the NFL with 39 passing touchdowns while the latter is sixth with 28, though he also has six rushing scores to Rodgers' two. They are both favored and expected to score plenty of points, and fantasy players will surely be looking to roster one of the two, with Rodgers likely to be more popular because he's not much more expensive even though Allen technically has a better matchup in terms of fantasy points allowed by the opposing defense.

Given they're underdogs, Teddy Bridgewater ($5,200 DK, $7,300 FD) and Drew Lock ($5,000 DK, $6,800 FD) figure to be left for those who want to play more contrarian, more so Bridgewater due to how well the Packers have played against the pass this season. Lock has had a number of very good games when the Broncos fall behind because he can just start slinging it, and he now faces a Bills defense that allowed more than 300 passing yards in three of their last five games, as well as five passing touchdowns in the past two. Meanwhile, the Packers allowed one 300-yard passer all season, which just pushes more people toward Lock if they don't pay up.

RUNNING BACKS

We have very different running back situations on this slate, as the Bills and Broncos use a fairly even split among two running backs, the Packers use two but prefer one and the Panthers have a near bell cow.

Given his dominance of the backfield opportunities for the Panthers, Mike Davis ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD) has a path to being the running back who finishes Saturday's slate with the most touches even though Carolina is more than a touchdown underdog in Green Bay. Davis and Christian McCaffrey are the only players to get double-digit rushing attempts for the Panthers this season, and the latter is officially listed as doubtful because of a thigh injury. The expected game script doesn't work in Davis' favor, but no team on the slate has allowed more fantasy points to running backs this season than the Packers, and given how well they play against the pass, Davis could be a very important part of the offense. Though speaking of the passing game, Davis is active there too, getting at least five targets in five of the past six games.

The other side of Davis' game makes us consider Aaron Jones ($7,300 DK, $8,200 FD), who is an excellent option when he's the dominant ball carrier, but he's been losing a decent number of touches to Jamaal Williams ($4,800 DK, $5,200 FD). It's not that Williams is getting enough touches to make himself a good play, but he does get enough to warrant hesitation on spending so much on Jones. The matchup is exactly what you look for in a fantasy running back, as the Packers are big favorites and expected to score a lot of points, but Williams' activity has to chip away at Jones' floor and ceiling. Then again, with pricing fairly loose, Jones is still likely to be very popular because many fantasy players will have the salary and not want to buy into the Buffalo and Denver backfields.

Zack Moss ($4,500 DK, $5,700 FD) and Devin Singletary ($4,100 DK, $5,300 FD) split the running back opportunities for the Bills, while Melvin Gordon ($5,200 DK, $6,000 FD) and Phillip Lindsay ($4,000 DK, $5,100 FD) do so for the Broncos. A quick breakdown of their week-to-week touches (carries plus receptions) shows just how messy the situations are:

Gordon and Singletary get more volume than Lindsay and Moss, respectively, and it's led to more fantasy points, but they aren't great options simply because of the split workloads. And as mentioned, pricing is fairly loose, so we're likely to see plenty of Jones/Davis lineups even though it seems like an easy combination to break up for leverage purposes.

WIDE RECEIVERS

My initial projections have Davante Adams ($9,400 DK, $9,500 FD) on roughly 178 percent of teams in cash games and 172 percent in GPPs, so if you're looking for the biggest fade of the slate, here it is. He has been absurdly dominant, scoring at least one touchdown in eight straight weeks, scoring 12 times in the span, while racking up more than 100 receiving yards in five games. He is Rodgers' favorite weapon by far and gets plenty of work near the goal line, as evidenced as recently as last week when he had three targets inside the five-yard line. Additionally, he's facing the team that's allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers among the four teams on the slate. Like I said, everyone is going to have him. 

The other Packers wide receivers don't figure to be popular, though the argument is there for Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,200 DK, $5,500 FD) and Allen Lazard ($4,100 DK, $5,600 FD) simply because Rodgers is such a solid play. Both guys are fine, though unlikely to even be popular in cash games on such a small slate. Newly acquired Tavon Austin ($3,000 DK, $4,600 FD) was used a bit in his debut last week, but he doesn't present as a great option Saturday because there are more established receivers in his price range.

The Packers have been very good against wide receivers this season, but it's tough to look at DJ Moore ($5,200 DK, $7,000 FD) and not think he's under-priced. With 15 catches on 27 targets for 284 yards and a touchdown in his last three games, Moore could be a fairly popular option, especially with the expectation that Bridgewater may have to throw more in order to keep up with the Packers offense. It's worth noting that Moore did not play last week against Denver due to an ankle issue and being on the reserve/COVID list, but he has no injury designation heading into the weekend.

Moore's price likely means Robby Anderson ($6,200 DK, $6,700 FD) won't be that popular because why would you take the guy who usually gets fewer targets when he costs more? Not to take anything away from Anderson, who had 94 and 84 yards in the past two games, respectively, but the salary difference will make an impact unless you're building a team that fades Adams. No. 3 wideout Curtis Samuel ($4,800 DK, $6,200 FD) is officially questionable to play because of a hamstring injury, an issue that apparently popped up Friday, which is never good news. Samuel has the benefit of getting additional rushing attempts in addition to his targets, so there shouldn't be many volume concerns, but the hamstring issue isn't helpful.

Buffalo's passing attack is dominated by Stefon Diggs ($7,900 DK, $8,200 FD), who led the league through 13 weeks with 100 receptions, while only one player had more targets and two had more receiving yards. Diggs seems like the perfect pivot for those who want to fade Adams, though playing both is a possibility if you're willing to gamble on one of the running backs from the split backfields in Denver or Buffalo. No. 2 wide receiver Cole Beasley ($4,700 DK, $5,800 FD) could be popular, more so on DraftKings because of the full point per reception, as he has at least 10 targets in three of the last four games, and he's considerably cheaper than Diggs. Of course, a combination of Allen, Diggs and Beasley is certainly justified even against a Broncos defense that has been solid against wide receivers.

One potential cheap option is Gabriel Davis ($4,000 DK, $5,400 FD), who comes in with a touchdown in each of his last three games, helped by John Brown's injury absence. With Brown already ruled out for Saturday's game, Davis will continue to be an option, certainly more so than Isaiah McKenzie ($3,000 DK, $4,700).

The Broncos' passing game is very cheap, which makes stacking them with Lock fairly easy for those who employ the "first or last" GPP strategy. Tim Patrick ($4,300 DK, $5,700 FD) is the most expensive of the group on both sites, though it seems more likely that Jerry Jeudy ($3,900 DK, $5,300 FD) and KJ Hamler ($3,500 DK, $5,100 FD) will be more popular. Hamler is coming off a big game last week against Carolina when he scored two touchdowns, though they were his only catches on three targets, finishing with 86 yards. Then again, Patrick has three touchdowns on nine targets in his last two games and Jeudy, who had four targets in each of the past two games, hasn't scored since Week 9.

Hamler and Jeudy are cheap enough that they could be used as one-offs for those looking at cheaper wide receiver options, particularly because they aren't far down the depth chart like the similarly priced pass catchers on the other teams.

TIGHT ENDS

Robert Tonyan ($4,500 DK, $6,500 FD) is the most expensive tight end on both sites, which isn't surprising given he comes in with a touchdown in four straight games, bringing him to nine  this season, which is tied for the most in the NFL with Travis Kelce among tight ends. Tonyan's regular receiving volume isn't that high (he's gotten five targets in each of those four games), so he makes for a fairly tough play if he doesn't get in the end zone. Of course, the Packers have the highest implied total, so scoring another touchdown wouldn't be a completely unexpected outcome.

However, tight end seems like a position many fantasy players will go to save salary, which pushes them off Tonyan and toward either Noah Fant ($3,800 DK, $5,600 FD or Dawson Knox ($2,800 DK, $4,800 FD). Fant hasn't had an explosive game since Week 1 when he had 81 yards and a touchdown against the Titans, though he did have at least five targets in three of the last five games. Meanwhile, Knox had seven targets just last week, and with four catches in each of the past two games, he seems like the obvious pay-down option, particularly for those who are using Allen as their quarterback.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

A two-game slate obviously doesn't give us many options, and the variance of the DST position makes it tough to really prioritize any of the options. That being said, the Bills ($3,000) seem likely to stick out against Lock, who has thrown the second-most interceptions this season despite only playing 10 games. Meanwhile, the Bills defense has been much better of late, with multiple interceptions in each of the past two games and at least three sacks in the three games before that. A cheap price makes them fairly easy to afford, which could make them the most popular.