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As we navigate through the season, we are starting to see Top 5 candidates in every category crystallize a bit, but at this point, no one has come through with any of the top prizes! That won't stop us from trying, however
Before diving into Week 13, let's take a look at last week's winners in every category.
WEEK 12 RESULTS
QB Passing Yards - Baker Mayfield
Only 1.7% of the field went in this direction. Sam Darnold came in a close second, and he was one of our endorsements.
QB Completed Passes - Carson Wentz
How many people picked Wentz here? Exactly nobody. He's the ultimate Pick8-breaker of the week.
RB Rushing Yards - Derrick Henry
We nailed it this week! Henry was one of our guys to target.
RB Receiving Yards - Christian McCaffrey
I should have stayed on McCaffrey like I did last week. Our pick was Fournette, who came just seven yards short of taking this category.
WR Receiving Yards - Chris Godwin
Godwin's 184 yards smoked the field. Our closest pick was Michael Thomas, who finished 8th highest in the category.
WR Receptions - Zach Ertz
A whopping 12 receptions from Ertz! Another tight end takes it. Another notch in our belts from Week 12.
FG Made - Dustin Hopkins
Nobody picked Hopkins either, but we were close! Koo came in second.
Defense Points Allowed - Bills and Jets
Both teams held their opponents to a field goal.
Week 13 Targets
Before we jump into the targets, we need to think about a huge variable that should come into play: weather. Here is a list of games that will face some unfavorable playing conditions. Generally, the more unfavorable the conditions are, the more likely we'll see a dip for QBs and WRs, and a spike for RBs and defenses.
49ers at Ravens - Rain, 65% chance, 43 degrees
Redskins at Panthers - Cloudy, 33% chance of rain
Packers at Giants - Rain, 55% chance, 40 degrees
QB Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. OAK
Mahomes returns from a bye week with a very favorable opponent. The Raiders rank 30th against opposing quarterbacks and got shellacked in the rain last weekend.
Sam Darnold, NYJ at CIN
Darnold was very close to winning this category last week, and the velocity of his passes should keep Cincy on their heels all day. The only knock on Darnold is that he tends to avoid the big play and makes his living with a lot of short passes.
QB Passes Completed
Nick Foles, JAX vs. TB
Foles came in a close second in this category last week, and the Bucs trail only the Cardinals as the team that yields the most completions in the league. The combination of those factors makes Foles a logical choice.
Baker Mayfield, CLE @ PIT
The Steelers are particularly tough against the run, so I anticipate Mayfield will take to the air, and attempt to beat his 24 completed passes from last week
RB Rushing Yards
Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. WAS
The Redskins rank 24th against the run, which is actually a little better than you'd expect. You have to expect McCaffrey will put up a good number here - maybe not the best, but his history in this category makes him a safe bet.
Jonathan Williams, IND vs. JAX
The Titans have a stout defense, but they rank a surprising 20th against the rush. While Jacoby Brissett did a lot with his feet, Williams still came in fourth last week after winning the category in Week 11.
RB Receiving Yards
Alvin Kamara, NO at ATL
Kamara was third in this category last week, and when you consider how weak Atlanta is against the pass, he should emerge as another great option once again.
WR Receiving Yards
Davante Adams, GB at NYG
The weather will likely stink in this game, but it's time for some heroism from the usually prolific Rodgers/Adams tandem. We've seen flashes since Adams returned, but he hasn't quite broken out yet. Against a weak Giants secondary, this could be the week.
Michael Thomas, NO at ATL
It makes sense to put the league's best receiver (at the moment) up against the league's third-worst pass defense.
WR Receptions
Allen Robinson, CHI at DET
Everyone loves to make a statement on Thanksgiving Day, and Robinson is Mitch Trubisky's favorite target. The Lions rank 21st in the league against opposing receivers, and Robinson is coming off one of his best games of the year.
Zach Ertz, PHI at MIA
I think Ertz is ideally placed yet again against the Dolphins, as Wentz desperately needs a security blanket, even against the Dolphins.
FG Made
This category is always a toss-up, but Red Zone TD Conversion Rate is a good guide for FG made - the lower percentage, the better.
Younghoe Koo is on a roll, so it would foolish to not consider him this week. I'll also throw out Wil Lutz into the fray again, as it could be a week that Saints have some trouble in the red zone.
Defense Points Allowed
Remember that we are strictly looking for points allowed, so we are trying to identify blowouts and goose-eggs.
I'm going to go with the Jets against the Bengals, and the Cardinals against the Rams.
