This article is part of our Injury Analysis series.
Three days ago I told some friends that Pittsburgh was the fraudulent team in the AFC North and would be the only one to miss the playoffs. Not long after, Browns QB Deshaun Watson was announced to be out for year with a shoulder fracture, leaving rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the team's starting quarterback. One day later, in a game I attended, Bengals QB Joe Burrow (wrist) and Ravens TE Mark Andrews (leg) suffered season-ending injuries.
Burrow became the sixth starting QB to succumb to that fate this year, while Andrews is the first TE among regular fantasy starters to go down for the year (unless Darren Waller never returns from his hamstring injury for the last-place Giants). The Steelers suddenly are in a much better position to make the playoffs, facing Thompson-Robinson in his second career start this week and then Cincinnati QB Jake Browning over Thanksgiving weekend in what will be his second NFL start. Pittsburgh then gets the Cardinals (home), Patriots (home), Colts (away) and Bengals again (home) before heading to Seattle and Baltimore to close out the year.
Turns out I should've kept my mouth shut. The Steelers might not even need to beat the Ravens in Week 18 to win the division, if they win each of their three AFC North games before then. A big 'if' to be fair, but one that's quickly gone from being extremely unlikely to possible. Meanwhile, millions of fantasy teams took big hits, and not just those with the
Three days ago I told some friends that Pittsburgh was the fraudulent team in the AFC North and would be the only one to miss the playoffs. Not long after, Browns QB Deshaun Watson was announced to be out for year with a shoulder fracture, leaving rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the team's starting quarterback. One day later, in a game I attended, Bengals QB Joe Burrow (wrist) and Ravens TE Mark Andrews (leg) suffered season-ending injuries.
Burrow became the sixth starting QB to succumb to that fate this year, while Andrews is the first TE among regular fantasy starters to go down for the year (unless Darren Waller never returns from his hamstring injury for the last-place Giants). The Steelers suddenly are in a much better position to make the playoffs, facing Thompson-Robinson in his second career start this week and then Cincinnati QB Jake Browning over Thanksgiving weekend in what will be his second NFL start. Pittsburgh then gets the Cardinals (home), Patriots (home), Colts (away) and Bengals again (home) before heading to Seattle and Baltimore to close out the year.
Turns out I should've kept my mouth shut. The Steelers might not even need to beat the Ravens in Week 18 to win the division, if they win each of their three AFC North games before then. A big 'if' to be fair, but one that's quickly gone from being extremely unlikely to possible. Meanwhile, millions of fantasy teams took big hits, and not just those with the three guys that got injured.
Fallout includes Amari Cooper, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins (hamstring) and David Njoku, and to a lesser extent Lamar Jackson. Potential fantasy beneficiaries, besides the two replacement QBs, are pretty much limited to Ravens TE Isaiah Likely and WR Zay Flowers. Even that doesn't look too promising, except for maybe Flowers, as the Ravens have rotated their other receivers behind the rookie and haven't seen nearly as many flashes from Likely (8-89-0 in 12 games) as they did last year.
Likely's snap share is down from 40.4 percent last year to 31.5 percent this season, with his target rate per route sinking from 24.6 percent to 13.3 percent. The route sample from last year (244) is much larger than this year's (90), and a large dip in target rate definitely makes sense given that the Ravens have much better WRs and Likely has played only two games without Andrews (Weeks 1, 11). The second-year TE should definitely be added in deeper formats, but he won't necessarily see enough targets to be a fantasy starter, while Flowers already more or less does (6.55 per game).
Let's hope the rest of Week 11 isn't so brutal for injuries. There's certainly no shortage of players listed as questionable this weekend, but most of the skill-position guys are more fringe for fantasy and/or appear on track to play.
Below you'll find four different categories, with our lists including key offensive linemen and defensive players whose presences/absences might impact fantasy decisions. The bottom section — truly questionable — is sorted by kickoff times and can be used as a checklist/cheatsheet for Sunday morning and afternoon when inactives come out. First, let's see who's definitely in and who's definitely out...
Good to Go 💯
- QB Justin Fields (thumb)
- RB Aaron Jones (hamstring) & WR Christian Watson (shoulder)
- WR Jerry Jeudy (hip)
- WRs Nico Collins (calf) & Robert Woods (foot)
- WRs Donovan Peoples-Jones (ribs) & Kalif Raymond (ankle)
- WR Jalin Hyatt (concussion)
- TE Colby Parkinson (biceps)
- S Micah Hyde (neck) + CB Christian Benford (hamstring)
Ruled Out/Doubtful 🚑
- QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder)
- RB Dameon Pierce (ankle)
- RB Emari Demercado (toe)
- RB Antonio Gibson (D - toe)
- WR Treylon Burks (concussion)
- WR Jamal Agnew (shoulder)
- WR Marquise Goodwin (concussion)
- TE Dallas Goedert (forearm)
- TE Gerald Everett (chest)
- TE Hayden Hurst (concussion)
Key Defensive Players + Offensive Linemen
- S Juan Thornhill (calf)
- S Minkah Fitzpatrick (hamstring) + S Keanu Neal (ribs) + DT Montravius Adams (ankle)
- Gs Robert Hunt (hamstring) & Robert Jones (knee)
- G Jonah Jackson (wrist) + DT Isaiah Buggs (illness)
- LT Andre Dillard (concussion) + CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (thumb)
- CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring)
- S Jimmie Ward (hamstring) + LB Henry To'oTo'o (concussion
- CB CJ Henderson (concussion)
- CB Adoree' Jackson (concussion) + OT Evan Neal (ankle)
- DE James Smith-Williams (hamstring)
- S Ryan Neal (thumb)
- G Aaron Banks (toe)
- CB Akayleb Evans (calf)
Listed as Questionable - Should Play 👍
- WR Garrett Wilson (elbow)
- TE Durham Smythe (ankle) + FB Alec Ingold (foot)
Truly Questionable / Game-Time Decisions 🤔
Early Games
- TE Pat Freiermuth (hamstring)
- RB De'Von Achane (knee)
- WR Braxton Berrios (hamstring)
- RB D'Onta Foreman (ankle)
- WR Zay Jones (knee)
- WRs Keenan Allen (shoulder) & Jalen Guyton (groin)
- WR Michael Wilson (shoulder)
- WR Noah Brown (knee)
There's a lot to unpack here, starting with Freiermuth and Achane likely coming off injured reserve after missing the minimum four games. Other guys on the list above are less certain, though all besides Brown managed at least a pair of limited practices this week.
Allen is the biggest fantasy name and progressed to full practice participation Friday. Berrios, Foreman and Jones all remained limited Friday, with Guyton and Wilson being end-of-week additions to the injury report and also listed as limited. In Wilson's case, it seems to be the same shoulder injury that kept him out Week 9 (but not Week 10). In Guyton's case, he's apparently dealing with a groin injury just two games after returning from a 13-month absence due to an ACL tear.
Brown didn't practice at all this week, and the Texans are better equipped to get by without the red-hot receiver now that Nico Collins (calf) has been cleared to come back from a one-week absence.
Late-Afternoon Games
- WR Tyler Lockett (hamstring)
Lockett didn't practice at all this week but reportedly ran some Friday. I initially thought the Seahawks could opt for caution because they face the Niners four days later, but I'm not sure they can afford to, given that Sunday's game is also a divisional matchup and their upcoming stretch of schedule is brutal. In other words, Lockett will play if he's able to, which he managed the past four weeks with the same injury. Of course, he also practiced at least once each previous week.
Primetime Games
- RB Alexander Mattison (concussion) - SNF
- WR Richie James (knee) - MNF
Mattison being in primetime could be an annoyance for anyone that added Ty Chandler with the intention of starting him (not to mention those counting on Mattison himself). But usually with concussions we know by the day before, or at least the morning of, and coach Kevin O'Connell certainly hinted that'll be the case when he talked to the media Friday afternoon.
Key Defensive Players + O-Linemen
- T Kolton Miller (shoulder) + G Dylan Parham (calf)
- LBs Tremaine Edmunds (knee) + Jack Sanborn (ankle)
- G Daniel Brunskill (ankle)
- RT Anton Harrison (back) + DE Roy Robertson-Harris (ankle)
- CB Jaire Alexander (shoulder) + OLB Rashan Gary (shoulder) + ILB Quay Walker (groin)
- T D.J. Humphries (ankle) + G Trystan Colon (calf)
- DE Will Anderson (knee)
- S Xavier Woods (thigh)
- S Jamal Adams (knee) + CB Tre Brown (foot)
- CB Cobie Durant (shoulder)