Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher", and sometimes "lower" picks, on Chalkboard.
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Higher
RB Ashton Jeanty 
vs. NYG - higher than 70.5 rush yards; 102.5 rush + rec yards
Jeanty is coming off the best game of his career after taking 25 touches for 188 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in Houston. That it came against the Texans, arguably the league's best defense, makes it all the more encouraging. Sunday's matchup at home against the Giants, whom enemy RBs have feasted on, is much softer. Jeanty should see 20+ touches in a favorable game script and could draw a few more targets in the passing game with Brock Bowers sidelined.
QB Trevor Lawrence 
at IND - higher than 236.5 pass yards; 1.5 TDs
WR Jakobi Meyers at IND - higher than 4.5 receptions; 58.5 rec yards
Meyers has drawn at least seven targets in three consecutive games. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags are rolling. He has thrown 12 touchdowns without an interception over the last four games while averaging north of 260 passing yards in that span.
The Colts are missing their top two CBs in Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward. The game will be played indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium where we just saw the 49ers do whatever they wanted in a 48-point rout on Monday night. It's a great spot.
WR Josh Downs 
vs. JAX - higher than 36.5 rec yards
TE Tyler Warren vs. JAX - higher than 44.5 rec yards
QB Philip Rivers vs. JAX - higher than 205.5 pass yards
Jacksonville's defense is a stereotypical pass funnel. They rank among the best against the run and consequently face the league's highest opponent neutral passing rate (63 percent). Expect that to continue after we saw the Colts throw at a 76 percent clip as they played catchup against the 49ers on Monday night.
Downs and Warren were targeted nine times each and should see requisite volume again on Sunday. It's been inspirational watching 44-year old Rivers keep Indy's hopes alive and he should continue to improve.
TE Trey McBride 
at CIN - higher than 6.5 receptions; 70.5 rec yards
It's been well-documented that Cincinnati's defense has been historically bad at stopping tight ends. They rank dead last in receptions and yards allowed to the position. On the other hand, McBride has been unstoppable, the best TE in the game. He's had at least eight receptions in five of the last seven games and unlike last week, Arizona will have to score points to keep up with the high-flying Bengals offense.
QB Joe Burrow 
vs. ARI - higher than 272.5 pass yards; 2.5 TDs
WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. ARI - higher than 89.5 rec yards; 0.5 TDs
Any lingering doubts about Burrow should be put to rest after the Bengals scored six touchdowns against the Dolphins last week. He threw for 309 yards and four TDs, his second four-touchdown game in the last three. This is a similar spot against a Cardinals defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone. Chase has 19 catches on 27 targets over the last two games and 100+ receiving yards in three of the last four since Burrow returned from injury.
RB Kenneth Gainwell 
at CLE - higher on receptions or yards
WR Adam Thielen at CLE - higher on receptions or yards
TE Pat Freiermuth at CLE - higher on receptions or yards
RB Jaylen Warren at CLE - higher than 0.5 TDs
I highlighted Gainwell here last week and he responded with five catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. He's drawn seven targets in three straight games and has 33 receptions over his last six. Expect the volume to continue with DK Metcalf suspended and Myles Garrett pressuring Aaron Rodgers. I think we'll also see Thielen and Freiermuth benefit from Metcalf's absence. Both of them caught four passes last week and it's clear that Rodgers trusts them.
On the Cleveland side, Quinshon Judkins is out and the Browns offense is going to really struggle at times with Shedeur Sanders under center, but no David Njoku, and perhaps Harold Fannin Jr. sits, too. It should present plenty of opportunity and favorable field position for the Steelers offense. The RBs could benefit most, specifically Warren, who's coming off a massive 143-yard, two-score effort against the Lions.
