This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We're back at it for our Week 12 Underdog Pick'em selections. By now, we've settled into a nice rhythm so we'll just take a minute to highlight the primary tools I used to reach my picks and reference throughout the article:
Fantasy points allowed vs. Position
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Higher
Marvin Mims – higher than 8.5 receiving yards
The Broncos have found ways to get Mims involved across their last six games. In that span, he's seen multiple targets in every contest. That's not exactly a high threshold, but it makes significant improvement from the first several weeks of the campaign when he had just five targets through five contests. One reception likely gets the job done, and Mims should have the chance to surpass that mark.
Brock Bowers – higher than 11.75 fantasy points
There haven't been many positives to point to for the Raiders offense, but they have clearly hit on Bowers as a key to the unit both for this year and for many years to come. Since Week 5 and the official departure of Davante Adams, Bowers has commanded double-digit targets in four of six games. Volume alone is one path for him to reach this mark, but he has multiple paths. He has been a big-play threat consistently during the season with eight catches of at least 20 yards. Given Bowers' size, it's also no surprise that he's been a threat in the end zone, with nine targets inside the 20. That kind of usage leads to fantasy points.
Brian Robinson – higher than 72.5 rushing yards
At first glance, this is a prop that could be hard to get behind as Robinson has topped 72.5 rushing yards in a game only twice this season. However, there's a strong case for this to be the third. The Cowboys have allowed the 10th-highest yards per carry to opposing running backs this season, so Robinson should be in for a relatively efficient game. We should also see positive game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 10.5 points at most sportsbooks. That will mean a lot of work for Robinson, leaving us with an intersection of projected volume and efficiency.
Ameer Abdullah – higher than 51.5 receiving + rushing yards/higher than 9.5 rushing attempts
Abdullah looks to be the last man standing in the Raiders' backfield, with both Alexander Mattison (ankle) and Zamir White (quadriceps) listed as doubtful. Dylan Laube has gotten some steam, but he's been a healthy scratch most of the season and fumbled his only NFL carry to this point. Relying on Abdullah isn't the best roster evaluation decision, but the Raiders aren't exactly known for their proficient ability to optimize their on-field product. That should lead to a significant workload for Abdullah, and hopefully some yardage.
Luke Schoonmaker- higher than 28.5 receiving yards
This one is pretty straightforward. Jake Ferguson (concussion) missed most of Monday's defeat against the Texans and has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Commanders. That leaves Schoonmaker as the primary tight end, and we got a glimpse of what that will look like when he commanded 10 targets against the Texans. Dallas almost certainly won't have an efficient passing game, but this number is just set too low.
Lower
Matthew Stafford – lower than 248.5 passing yards
The Rams' offense has been humming since the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but the Eagles' secondary is playing like it's the best in the league. For the season, Philadelphia has allowed 6.07 yards per attempt, the lowest number in the league by three-tenths of a yard. Across the last four weeks, that number has dropped to 5.12. Put another way, the Eagles haven't allowed a quarterback to surpass this yardage total since Week 4.
Chuba Hubbard – lower than 74.5 rushing + receiving yards
Jonathon Brooks (knee) is finally set to make his NFL debut. We don't know what his workload will look like, but it will almost certainly cut into a portion of Hubbard's opportunity. While Hubbard has performed admirably as the lead back, this also wouldn't be the week to project a big weekend from him. The Chiefs have allowed the lowest yards per carry mark in the league for the season (3.11) and have allowed the fifth-fewest total receiving yards to opposing backs for the season. That closes several paths for him to hit this projection.
Christian McCaffrey – lower than 113.5 rushing + receiving yards
McCaffrey has approached this number in each of his first two games of the season, and projecting improved performance would be reasonable in most scenarios. However, the entire 49ers offense is going to take a hit with Brock Purdy sidelined, meaning McCaffrey could account for plenty of the team's yardage from scrimmage and he'd still fall short of this number. There is clear risk here given McCaffrey's explosiveness and a matchup against an unintimidating Packers' defense, but my overall expectation is that the 49ers' offense struggles without Purdy.
