This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks: NFL Player Props, Best Bets, and Touchdown Scorers for Week 3 at FanDuel Sportsbook
My " Week 2" bets went 2-1 last week needing a big comeback and overtime for the Raiders/Cardinals to go over 51.5 points. My favorite player prop bet - Allen Robinson over receiving yards hit, although I thought it was going over easily rather than by just a few yards. Jeff Wilson went over his rushing yardage total but Saquon Barkley was unable to do the same. My only anytime touchdown winner, Tyreek Hill hit pay dirt not only once but two times for the Miami Dolphins. Let's see what looks good this week.
NFL Week 3 Bets
Indianapolis Colts +5.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This is one of those bets that smells funny and it'll make me look either really smart or dumb. The Colts were the favorite to win the division and now Vegas think they'll likely be staring 0-2-1 in the face after Sunday. This line almost begs people to take the Chiefs considering the Colts' record coupled with the Chiefs winning by 23 against the Cardinals and three against the Chargers although that game could have easily been a 10-point win. I can see Jonathan Taylor having a big home game here and if the Colts can control the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, there's a path for them to win outright (+200) which I like also.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills OVER 52.5 Points
Micah Hyde, Dane Jackson, Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips have already been ruled out for the Buffalo Bills. That's a lot of players to be missing on defense and Miami has scored 62 points in their first two games. I think this ends up being a 31-28 win for the Bills but this game has the potential to be even higher scoring than that. It wouldn't surprise me to see this over hit during the third quarter.
Denver Broncos +1.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I don't think the Broncos have shown us what they're capable of on offense and I like the fact that they're home underdogs. Let's not go and pretend that Jimmy Garoppolo is the second-coming of Steve Young and I think he struggles in his first road start this season. It'll help if Jerry Jeudy suits up for this and I also like the prop of an anytime interception by Garoppolo (-122). Obviously I'm not subscribing to the Syllogism of San Francisco beating Seattle, Seattle being Denver, therefore...
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NFL Player Props for Week 3
Elijah Moore OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards
Here is my favorite prop of the week. To me, Moore is still the best wide receiver the Jets have even with the impressive start by Garrett Wilson. That start by Wilson will command more attention from Cincinnati's defense which has been less than stellar to start the season. Moore hasn't gone over this mark in either of his first two games so it seems a bit odd it's this high suggesting the sportsbook also thinks Moore is due. Watching game film, he's been wide open at times and Flacco just hasn't targeted him on those plays. Moore's 12 targets through two games seems low, I would think there's some positive "progression" to more targets in his near future. A same-game parlay for Moore of 100+ receiving yards (alternate receiving line) and an anytime touchdown pays out +1263 for what it's worth (hmm).
Kyle Pitts OVER 4.5 Receptions (+106)
Here's another player who has gotten off to a disappointing start with two identical 2-19 games. The sportsbook has his receiving yardage at 52.5 so I'd guess, like me, they're expecting him to get more than last week's three targets in this game. Seattle's defense isn't anywhere as good as they've been in the past and star defender Jamal Adams is out for the season after undergoing knee surgery.
Carson Wentz UNDER 242.5 Passing Yards
Wentz has been slinging the rock extremely well out of the gate with performances of 313 and 337 passing yards to start the season. However, he'll face the toughest defense he's gone up against in the Eagles who just limited Kirk Cousins to 221 passing yards and Jared Goff to 215 passing yards in Week 1. Look for Wentz to come crashing back to earth and his anytime interception prop (YES) at -188 looks attractive as well (he has picks in each of his first two games).
Anytime Touchdown Props
Tyler Higbee, LAR +160
Higbee often gets lost in the shuffle considering the other weapons the Rams have in their offense. The Arizona Cardinals have been dead last against opposing tight ends in terms of allowing fantasy points through the first two games and have allowed touchdowns to Travis Kelce and Darren Waller in each of those games. Higbee should be able to find room to work over the middle with Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson commanding attention on the outside.
Rashaad Penny +165
Penny has been a bit unlucky as he had 14 touches in Week 1's win against the Broncos but then game script last week in San Francisco led to only six carries. Atlanta has been tough against the run to start the season but they have to play on the road and go all the way to Seattle. While the presence of rookie Kenneth Walker doesn't help, Penny is the slightly bigger back and should be expected to handle the goal line work. Look for Penny to find the end zone for the first time this season Sunday.
Alec Pierce +440
Ok, here's my long shot of the week. Pierce is returning after missing a game (concussion) and is set to resume his role as the third wide receiver for the Colts. In my min,d he's as likely to score as Parris Campbell (+360) but has slightly more favorable odds. The Chiefs will be focused on Jonathan Taylor in the red zone and Michael Pittman will command attention from the Chiefs secondary. Pierce has excellent size (6-3, 211) to make for a big target and the Colts are expected to score around 23 points in this game. I also like Matt Ryan to throw more than 1.5 touchdowns (+116) in this one.
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