This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Futures Bets: 2024 Steelers Win Totals
Betting team wins, and other full-season NFL futures, requires patience. If placing a bet in the preseason, the payout usually won't occur until January. That said, there are edges to be gained in the betting market. The more knowledge we have about each team's talent on each side of the football provides an edge.
In addition, projecting potential intangibles can add value. Examples of intangibles are teams that add a new coach/coordinator, or teams that made multiple moves to the less glamorous positions on the field. For those who followed this article series I wrote last season, we projected nine teams, winning six for a 66.7 percent win rate. Overall, the series was a moneymaker. This year, we'll look to continue that win percentage.
In this article, we'll look at the Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins at +140 odds. These odds, as well as all other NFL win totals odds, can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Steelers Outlook: Offense
Much of the offseason discussion about the Steelers offense centers around offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. While in Tennessee and during some of his time in Atlanta, Smith's offenses were very successful. Part of the reason was the usage of multiple tight ends and running backs on the field. Last year, the league's defenses got better at stopping zone runs with light boxes. Smith didn't seem to make an adjustment. As a result, the Atlanta rushing attack struggled.
Now in Pittsburgh, we should continue to see heavy personnel. The Steelers have three useful tight ends along with a pair of solid running backs (Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren). At quarterback, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields may not be world beaters, but both can fit into an offensive scheme that requires mobility and a strong arm. Also, the offensive line is in transition. Pittsburgh drafted linemen in the first, second and fourth round of this year's draft. Aside from not knowing if the rookies will hit or bust, the line may take time to jell.
If the offense is centered around one pass catcher, George Pickens is perfect for running the slants and deep routes the offense requires. Ultimately, if coach Smith does not make adjustments in his run scheme, the offense could sputter like it did in Atlanta. However, if the coach can make a few tweaks to his system, this offense could be league-average because the roster aligns with Smith's vision.
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Steelers Outlook: Defense
Last year's defense gave up more than 24 points on two occasions. There were seven times the Steelers held opponents to 17 points or fewer. The player the defense cannot afford to be without is T.J. Watt. As an elite pass rusher, Watt makes the other pass rushers on the team more effective. Watt's presence also helps an average set of cornerbacks to cover for less time or be aggressive in jumping routes. It's unlikely the Steelers have a dominant defense. However, when they play average (or worse) offenses, the defense gives the team a major edge. On very few occasions can we expect them to give up big points.
Steelers Schedule
It never helps to be in the AFC North. Having six games against the Ravens, Bengals and Browns will likely lead to, at best, a 3-3 record. Otherwise, facing the AFC West (aside from the matchup against the Chiefs) is favorable. Also, the NFC East teams may not be overwhelming. Overall, Pittsburgh has a challenging schedule. That said, this team has a similar schedule in most years. Due to coaching consistency and enough high-end talent, they have always come through with a winning record.
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Best Bet for 2024 Steelers Win Total
I'm going with the Pittsburgh Steelers over 8.5 wins at +140 odds. These odds can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook. Even though it's lazy analysis, coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. That said, he has had some very weak rosters, especially in the past couple of years.
It appeared those teams had little chance to go over .500, yet they did. Simply put, there is a culture in place that the team consistently buys into. The Steelers are a mentally tough team that often wins games against seemingly better teams. Aside from the intangibles, the offensive roster appears to be an excellent fit for Arthur Smith. As a result, this team could see a slight improvement from the past couple of seasons.
