This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Week 7 NFL Picks and Player Props
I turned in a mixed bag of results last week, winning the "Anytime Touchdown" category with Bijan Robinson (-140) and Xavier Legette (+280), but losing both of my player props. Let's see if I can get back on the winning side of both this week.
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Player Anytime Touchdowns
Kyren Williams, LAR -200 DraftKings
I like to take a chalky pick in this area every week and this week I will go with Williams. I was tempted to go back to Bijan Robinson at only -135 on FanDuel vs. -195 on other sites. Williams, like Derrick Henry, has scored in every game this season and has a few factors working for him this weekend. He plays at home, is rested coming off his Bye week and the Rams enter as seven-point favorites over the Raiders in a game with an over/under of 43.5. I'd sprinkle a little on Williams having 2+ touchdowns which can be found on BetRivers at +285
Travis Kelce, KC +155 FanDuel
This line is -105 on other sites so I would jump on it sooner than later. While everyone looks for the wide receivers to pick up the slack now with Rashee Rice done for the season, it could end up that Kelce benefits the most. He had nine and 10 targets over his last two games indicating that Patrick Mahomes is trying to get him the ball, and he had three red zone targets last game. While Kelce hasn't scored a touchdown yet, he had 36 over the previous four seasons suggesting he's due.
Raheem Mostert, MIA +290 FanDuel
Here is my favorite wager of the week. I understand that the Dolphins don't have Tua Tagovailoa under center and that the Colts defense could crowd the line of scrimmage. However, Mostert is definitely the goal line back for Miami and he comes off of a 21 touchdown season in 2023. I guess this line stays depressed due to the fact that he doesn't have a score this season. But due to his bye week and injuries, he's missed four and a half weeks of football. He handled 21 touches against the Patriots in Week 5 and then got a whole week to rest after that. Mostert should be close to or at 100 percent. Indianapolis is a good matchup as they rank 22nd in the league against opposing running backs. This line is as low as +125 on other sites and I can't see it staying as high as +290 the whole weekend.
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Player Props
Jordan Addison, MIN Over 47.5 Receiving Yards -113 FanDuel
This is my favorite player prop bet of the week. The Lions were already a bad pass defense ranking 30th in the league against opposing wide receivers and now they just lost their best pass rusher in Aidan Hutchinson. Justin Jefferson has the biggest over/under for receiving yards on every site for those reasons, and in this instances I like to take the next option at a highly discounted yardage total. The VIkings come in well rested off their bye, and play at home. I'd also sprinkle a little on the 100-yard mark for Addison at plus odds (100+ receiving yards is +700 on DraftKings and maybe parlay that with an anytime touchdown?).
Davante Adams, NYJ Under 53.5 Receiving Yards -113 FanDuel
Just when I got used to Adams' playing for the Raiders he goes and gets dealt to New York. I get the feeling everyone will want to bet on all the positives with Adams which is why I'm going in the opposite direction. First, this line is five yards lower on other sites if you feel inclined to take the over here. While they say Adams is in line for a full workload, I'm not sure I totally believe that. The Steelers are at home and their defense is legit, ranking sixth against opposing quarterbacks and 10th against opposing wide receivers. A huge factor here is the return of Alex Highsmith who will rush Aaron Rodgers opposite T.J. Watt and probably not allow Rodgers time to go downfield with the ball. This should also allow the Pittsburgh defense to drop seven back to cover Adams who hasn't played since Week 3.
David Njoku, CLE Over 42.5 Receiving Yards -112 (BetRivers)
With Amari Cooper moving on to greener pastures, it only makes sense that his targets get dispersed throughout the other receivers in Cleveland. There's a strong case Njoku is at least the number two guy for the Browns and he could emerge as the 1B along with Jerry Jeudy. His over/under for receptions in this game is 4.5 and each of the last four seasons his yards per catch mark was 10.8 yards or higher. This is another prop I think could easily hit a higher number at plus odds (70+ yards,+330 DraftKings for example) so I'd check out those lines as well. I went with Njoku over Jeudy as the Bengals rank 13th against opposing wide receivers, but 23rd against opposing tight ends.
