This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Betting: NFL Week 8 Player Props and Touchdown Scorer Picks
Last week: 12-7, +4.70 units
Season: 49-61, -17.61 units
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Travis Etienne over 69.5 rushing yards, -105 (DraftKings)
As mentioned in this column the last few weeks, Etienne has been spiking recently as he finally drew even with backfield mate James Robinson in terms of rushing attempts. He now has the backfield to himself, with the Jaguars sending Robinson to the Jets following the Breece Hall injury last week. With Etienne averaging 7.97 yards per carry over his last three games (helped by long runs of 30, 48, and 49 yards), and with him now being the focal point of the Jaguars offense, he seems likely to garner enough carries to exceed this yardage total vs. the middling Broncos run defense.
Riley Patterson over 1.5 field goals, +110 (DraftKings)
The Broncos rank 29th vs. kickers, due largely to the fact their defense is quite stout overall, keeping teams out of the end zone and forcing them into field goal situations. Just over the last three games, they allowed three field goals to the Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein, four field goals to the Chargers kicker Dustin Hopkins, and four field goals to the Colts kicker Chase McLaughlin. Good price on the Jaguars kicker connecting twice.
Kenny Pickett over 14.5 rushing yards, -110 (DraftKings)
Pickett has proven himself to be quite mobile, and has covered this total in 3-of-4 games this years, despite him only playing about half of two of games (he came in for Trubisky in one game, left with a concussion in the other). Despite limited carries, he's had long runs of 10+ yards in each of his last three games, and seems likely to take off running a few times here, considering the Steelers will likely find themselves behind in this game and forced to throw more. The Eagles are also good at pressuring the QB (17 sacks in six games), which should help to force him out of the pocket.
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George Pickens over 39.5 receiving yards, -113 (FanDuel)
Pickens has easily covered this number (by 20+ yards) in three of his last four starts, which coincides with the promotion of Pickett. While both receivers are pretty active, he appears to be Pickett's preferred target, and he seems a good bet to reach 40 yards in a game where Pittsburgh will likely spend a good bit of the game in catch-up mode.
A.J. Brown over 68.5 receiving yards, -115 (DraftKings)
Brown is just a couple of yards from having covered this total in 5-of-6 games, with the only game where he wasn't close coming vs. the Cardinals, who are terrible vs. TE's, causing Dallas Goedert to be the featured receiver in that game. He now faces the Steelers, who rank 29th in pass defense at 275.4 yards per game. Good spot for the Eagles WR1 vs. a seemingly overmatched opponent.
Tony Pollard over 77.5 rushing yards, -115 (DraftKings)
Pollard has been biding his time in the Cowboys backfield behind Ezekiel Elliot for years, and now will finally get a chance to shine, with Elliot listed as doubtful for this game. It also looks like a great matchup for Pollard, with the Bears ranking 30th vs. the run at 149.7 rushing yards allowed per game. It might also be noted that this is the last year of Pollard's contract, so they may want to get a good look at him in the featured role in order to help determine their plans for next year. Pollard has always been long on talent, short on opportunity, and I would expect him to show up in a big way this week.
Raheem Mostert over 69.5 rushing yards, -113 (FanDuel)
Mostert has put up some decent rushing numbers recently since establishing himself as the lead back in the Miami backfield, and this represents a great matchup for him, with Detroit ranking 31st in rushing defense at 162.8 yards per game. Also worth noting, the Lions have allowed every opposing RB except Antonio Gibson to exceed this total. I expect the speedy Mostert to find plenty of running room his week, with his longest rush prop (over/under 15.5 yards) perhaps being worth a look as well.
Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown, +150 (FanDuel)
Amon-Ra hasn't been right for a while, missing time and/or being limited with an ankle injury over the last several weeks before finally seeming to be fully healthy last week, only to leave the game early due to concussion protocols (despite reportedly being cleared with no concussion on the sidelines). If nothing else, that figured to let him rest up a little more heading into this week's game, where he should be highly active in what projects to be a shootout at home vs. Miami. With the Dolphins having allowed 11 receiving touchdowns over their seven games this year, and with the total for this game sitting at a healthy 51.5 points, it seems reasonable to expect a St. Brown touchdown this week following his apparent return to full health (he logged a full practice on Friday, as did the returning RB D'Andre Swift). Good price on Amon-Ra finding the end zone. Just for comparison's sake, he's listed forty cents cheaper (+110) at DraftKings.
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Justin Jefferson over 90.5 receiving yards, -113 (FanDuel)
Jefferson has flown over this total in three of his four home games this year (184, 147, and 154 yards), with the only miss being a very fluky game vs. the Lions where he only had 14 yards. He now faces Arizona, who ranks 25th in passing yards allowed at 258.6 per game. Good spot for one of the league's best receivers.
Juwan Johnson anytime touchdown, +340 (DraftKings)
I was on the Juwan Johnson yardage and receptions props last week vs. Arizona, due to their trouble vs. TE's. Similar situation this week vs. the Raiders, who rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to TE's. Johnson definitely produced in that game last week, catching all five of his targets from QB Andy Dalton (who starts again this week), including a couple of touchdowns. His status seems further cemented by the fact that both Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out for this game. Decent chance that Johnson can find the end zone again (given Raiders' trouble vs. TE's), while Dalton may go looking for Johnson again following their success last week. Worth a play at the big price.
Wan'Dale Robinson over 43.5 receiving yards, -113 (FanDuel)
Mostly due to attrition, but also due to his recent return to health, Wan'Dale Robinson has become the top receiver for the Giants right now. He figures to see even more work this week, following the loss of Daniel Bellinger with an eye injury. This is not a very high bar to clear (in terms of yardage) for the workload that he figures to receive.
Parris Campbell over 33.5 receiving yards, -113 (FanDuel)
Always well-regarded but never healthy, Parris Campbell is finally starting to produce, surprisingly leading the Colts with 23 targets over the last two weeks. While the offense is now being handed over to new QB Sam Ehlinger, you'd still have to think Campbell is a major threat to reach 34 receiving yards given his recent volume.
Parris Campbell anytime touchdown, +420 (FanDuel)
In addition to catching 17 passes for 127 yards over the last two weeks, Campbell also recorded a pair of touchdown catches over those last two games. While is still possible this might be an aberration (especially with the change at QB), this is an awfully big number for the player who appears (at the moment) to be the Colts top receiving threat. Especially so vs. the Commanders, who have allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns in the league this year (14).
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