This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Monday Night Football NFL Picks and Player Props
My beloved Bills take on the Jets tonight and I will not lie, I'm a bit nervous. I've never seen any official data on it but I think there's something dangerous about a team playing their first game after firing their coach. Maybe the team rallies around the new coach or maybe the new coaching staff implements corrections that makes the team more effective. Either way, I tried to put my heart aside and make these selections with my head.
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Player Anytime TDs
Allen Lazard +310 FanDuel
II'm not in love with this category tonight so I will go with a few long shots. These are low-risk, high-reward players that will not crush us if they don't come through in a game with an over/under of 40.5. Lazard has touchdowns in three out of five games this season and this is one of those lines that should go down throughout the day. Obviously he has a good history with Aaron Rodgers. It wouldn't surprise if Rodgers calls his number inside of the five-yard line with the new regime giving Rodgers more freedom with play-calling. This line is as low as +240 on other sites.
Keon Coleman +300 DraftKings, Mack Hollins +750 DraftKings
I would feel better about taking these two if the Bills rule Khalil Shakir out. I'd probably pivot to the Coleman and Shakir (+340 DraftKings) duo if the latter is active. You also could get crazy and take all three and if one of them scores you'll make a profit. The Bills are slight favorite in this game so expecting three touchdowns out of the Bills seems reasonable.
Player Props
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Braelon Allen Over 47.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -115 BetMGM
Here's my favorite prop of the night. First, the Bills rank 31st in the league against opposing running backs so this is a favorable matchup. Since Week 1, Allen has averaged just under eight carries and two catches per game. Odd as it sounds, I like the fact that he did not hit his over in either of his last two games, which has likely helped keep this number down a bit. Those two games were against good defenses - Denver (46 yards,14th against running backs) and Minnesota (28 yards, second against running backs) which explains why the numbers stayed low.
Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions -130 BetMGM, BetRivers
The Jets have home field advantage, and an elite defense, ranking number one against the quarterback position. While Allen has yet to throw a pick this season, he's had 4-5 close calls including a pass that went straight through the defensive backs' hands last week. Allen also had lousy luck with the Jets last season throwing three picks in the season opener against them and then another pick in the rematch later in the season. Allen is also banged up coming into this matchup which doesn't help his prospects. On a side note, Hailey Steinfeld and he adopted a puppy here in Buffalo Saturday.
