Best NFL Wild Card Weekend PrizePicks Plays - Monday
It stings to miss out on our top play from Sunday's games, but Jalen Hurts and the Eagles just couldn't get much going. At least we were able to recover with Josh Allen and Travis Etienne leading us into the green.
We move on to Monday's game, which I expect to look very similar to last night's slog-fight between the Patriots and Chargers. If that's the case, we will need to get a little creative.
Best PrizePicks Picks current as of 9:15 AM ET Monday.
Ka'imi Fairbairn 9 Fantasy Score (MORE)
I'm hardly a fan of taking an away kicker at Heinz Field, but I'm making an exception. Kickoff temperatures should be around 35 degrees with little to no wind -- but that's not even my favorite part of this play.
All weekend, aside from the Patriots, we saw teams get overly aggressive in enemy territory and pass up easy points on fourth down. I don't think head coach DeMeco Ryans will go that route. With points presumably at a premium, I expect Houston to play much more conservatively.
This Steelers defense is good enough to bend but not break. I could easily see drives stall once Houston crosses midfield, leading to multiple field-goal attempts. Supporting the case further are the record-tying 44 field goals Fairbairn made this season at a 91 percent clip, and also the fact the Texans ranked 30th in red-zone touchdown rate. All signs point to volume and opportunity here.
C.J. Stroud 228.5 Passing Yards (LESS)
This is a play I will wait to make closer to kickoff, as we could see the number rise. This number aligns perfectly with our expected game script: a slow, grind-it-out contest in which both teams lean on the run.
Even though Houston hasn't run the ball particularly well this season, and Pittsburgh's run defense improved down the stretch, I think the Texans can do just enough on the ground to keep Stroud's pass attempts in check.
In the few instances in which Stroud has cleared this number, he was either at home or facing bottom-tier defenses like the Cardinals and Titans. A cold-weather playoff game on the road is a different animal -- especially with a fully-rested T.J. Watt screaming off the edge.
Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (MORE)
Alright, now that you've had your laugh, hear me out because I'm serious.
Yes, Houston's front seven is terrifying. But this is a win-or-go-home game, and potentially Rodgers' last game in the NFL. I'm not expecting him to turn into a dual-threat quarterback, but he showed a couple times in recent weeks that the escapability is still there. He's still spry, and those play-action rollouts do a great job of creating space and selling deception.
Look, we're only hunting for one yard. Over the last three games, with Pittsburgh fully locked into playoff mode, Rodgers took off for smart, timely gains of at least six yards against the Lions, Browns and Ravens.
He knows how to scramble intelligently, avoiding big hits while still doing what is necessary for the team. It only takes one.
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