This article is part of our NFL Observations series.
A couple weeks ago, I wrote five bold takes about the 2024 fantasy season. Well, I'm back this week with five more. Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments below. These predictions might be bold, but they aren't ridiculous.
Alvin Kamara will Lose the Starting RB Job
Kamara was an excellent fantasy player last season. In 13 games, the running back posted 1,160 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 75 passes. So why am I throwing shade on this great player? Last year, Kendre Miller missed nine games and Jamaal Williams looked washed up. As a result, Kamara handled 19.6 touches per game. The problem is the Saints' coaching staff saw a player in steep decline. Kamara was in the 15th percentile in broken-tackle rate. He was also below the 28th percentile in both yards after contact and yards after the catch. Now 29, another season of decline should be expected. In limited action, Miller, last year's third-round pick, showed played very well. The Saints' backfield should begin as a timeshare, but don't be surprised if Miller takes the lead in the second half of the year.
Marquise Brown will be a Top-15 Wide Receiver
Brown hasn't been durable the last two seasons, missing eight of the last 34 games. However, he only missed two games the first three seasons of his career, and last year's heel ailment isn't the type of injury that should cause concern this year. Even though Brown has been targeted at least
A couple weeks ago, I wrote five bold takes about the 2024 fantasy season. Well, I'm back this week with five more. Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments below. These predictions might be bold, but they aren't ridiculous.
Alvin Kamara will Lose the Starting RB Job
Kamara was an excellent fantasy player last season. In 13 games, the running back posted 1,160 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 75 passes. So why am I throwing shade on this great player? Last year, Kendre Miller missed nine games and Jamaal Williams looked washed up. As a result, Kamara handled 19.6 touches per game. The problem is the Saints' coaching staff saw a player in steep decline. Kamara was in the 15th percentile in broken-tackle rate. He was also below the 28th percentile in both yards after contact and yards after the catch. Now 29, another season of decline should be expected. In limited action, Miller, last year's third-round pick, showed played very well. The Saints' backfield should begin as a timeshare, but don't be surprised if Miller takes the lead in the second half of the year.
Marquise Brown will be a Top-15 Wide Receiver
Brown hasn't been durable the last two seasons, missing eight of the last 34 games. However, he only missed two games the first three seasons of his career, and last year's heel ailment isn't the type of injury that should cause concern this year. Even though Brown has been targeted at least 100 times in four consecutive seasons, he only has a single 1,000-yard campaign. In 2022, he played six games when both he and Kyler Murray were healthy. In those games he averaged seven catches, 81 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Those are top-10 wide receiver numbers. Brown has always been able to use his speed to get freed up when plays go off script. Now in Kansas City, that skill will work perfectly with Patrick Mahomes, who is the king of extending plays and finding receivers downfield. Brown is a complete receiver who can win in a variety of ways. He is the type of weapon Mahomes can maximize to full capacity.
Mark Andrews will be a Top-2 Tight End
Andrews' disappointing 2023 season needs to be put in context. After missing Week 1, he averaged 40 yards in his first two games back as he worked his way back into game shape. In the following six games, Andrews posted 63 or more yards five times while scoring five touchdowns. Finally, in Week 11, Andrews suffered a broken leg after seven snaps. Prorating the seven games in which he was at full health to a full season would give him 83 catches, 1,071 yards and 12 touchdowns. Andrews is still the difference maker we've seen since 2019. Yes, he missed nine games the last two seasons, but last year's broken leg wasn't a typical injury. On a per-game basis, Andrews has averaged about 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns for five years. Still just 28, Andrews should return to elite tight end status this season.
Jaylen Waddle will Post 1,400 Receiving Yards
Waddle didn't live up to his draft status last year. Many will look favorably at his 72-1,014-4 line, but that's not exactly what was expected from a top-20 pick. However, not only did Waddle miss three games last year, he rarely seemed healthy. Tyreek Hill will dominate targets, but if Waddle gets the 117 targets he had in 2022, he'll be fine. In that season, Waddle produced 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns. The beauty of Waddle's game is that he gets open quickly. Then, the receiver can be lethal after the catch. For a player who was mostly healthy in 2021 and 2022, it's not a reach to expect Waddle to return to that level of availability. Look for the wideout to improve on the numbers he put up two years ago and have a career year.
Kyler Murray will be a Top-4 Quarterback
Murray missed three games his first three seasons. The last two seasons, he missed 15 games. But that was because of an ACL injury in December 2022. When Murray returned in Week 10 last year, he was often without his top-two receivers (Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson). With tight end Trey McBride often the top pass catcher, Murray put up 19.5 to 26 fantasy points in seven of eight games. Now a full year removed from the knee injury, Murray should return to being the player who rushed for 39 yards per game in his first three seasons. In terms of weapons, the Cardinals drafted standout wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Wilson should be a solid No. 2 after a strong finish to last year and McBride should be an incredible third option. With Arizona projected to have a weaker defense, Murray will need to be aggressive on offense. He'll have his first strong fantasy season since 2021.
