NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 18

NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 18

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 18 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features 13 games. The entire league will be in action on the final week of the regular season, but the main slate excludes Saturday's Browns-Ravens and Bengals-Steelers matchups, as well as Sunday Night Football (Vikings-Lions). Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 18 prior to starting playoff DFS coverage, but the biggest is the NFL $100K Sunday Week 18, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $100,000 to the top 1,144 finishers, including $20,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 5,850 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay. 

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $100k Sunday Week 18 lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 18 options focus primarily on players with something to play for or those that could benefit from teammates/opponents resting in the regular-season finale. These players include an affordable QB and RB thrust into starting roles, as well as a pair of productive rookies who have been even better down the stretch.

QUARTERBACK

Joshua Dobbs, SF at ARI ($20): Dobbs has plenty to play for personally, even with the 49ers as a team eliminated from playoff contention. The mobile QB will make his first start of the season with Brock Purdy (elbow) sidelined, but Dobbs started 12 games between the Cardinals and Vikings in 2023, so he's a prospective option for QB-needy teams in this upcoming free-agent class. Dobbs scored a rushing TD after entering in relief last week, and he produced 13 TDs with his arm plus six with his legs last season. Even if San Francisco holds out some veteran offensive players, the team has a number of talented rookie skill players such as RB Isaac Guerendo and WR Ricky Pearsall that can help Dobbs lead an effective offense against a Cardinals defense that's one of six units to allow at least five rushing TDs to QBs this season.

Honorable Mentions:

Baker Mayfield, TB vs. NO ($37); Bo Nix, DEN vs. KC ($30); Joe Flacco, IND vs. JAC ($20)

Against the Grainers:

Drew Lock, NYG at PHI ($24); Geno Smith, SEA at LAR ($24); Tyler Huntley, MIA at NYJ ($22)

RUNNING BACK

Bucky Irving, TB vs. NO ($33): The Buccaneers have a win-and-in scenario at home against the Saints, so look for Tampa Bay to get ahead early and then pound the rock against a New Orleans defense that has allowed a league-high 17 rushing TDs to RBs. Irving has emerged as the team's clear No. 1 RB over Rachaad White ($24) down the stretch, with 43 touches for 282 scrimmage yards and a TD over the last two games compared to White's 17 touches for 94 yards over that span. The 125th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft leads this entire impressive rookie class with 1,430 scrimmage yards, and Irving has produced at least 92 scrimmage yards in five of the past six games. Prior to Tampa Bay's Week 11 bye, the only game in which Irving exceeded 90 scrimmage yards was Week 6, when he had 105 total yards of offense and a TD against the Saints.

Kenneth Gainwell, PHI vs. NYG ($10): Saquon Barkley won't get a chance to chase Eric Dickerson's NFL rushing record with Philadelphia's starters resting in preparation for the playoffs, but Gainwell will get a chance to put on his best Barkley impression against a Giants defense that has surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards (18,45) to RBs this season. Gainwell's opportunities have understandably been limited behind the star starter, but the fourth-year pro has demonstrated respectable efficiency with 4.3 yards per carry and 5.9 yards per target. This will likely be Gainwell's last chance to show what he can do with an expanded workload before he becomes an unrestricted free agent this offseason, as the only other RB on the active roster is rookie Will Shipley, who hasn't played since Week 16 due to a concussion.

Honorable Mentions:

Bijan Robinson, ATL vs. CAR ($39); Zach Charbonnet, SEA at LAR ($27); Isaac Guerendo, SF at ARI ($24)

Against the Grainers:

Tyrone Tracy, NYG at PHI ($26); Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN vs. KC ($14); Emanuel Wilson, GB vs. CHI ($10)

WIDE RECEIVER

Brian Thomas, JAC at IND ($35): Thomas has been unstoppable the last three weeks, catching 26 of 37 targets for 328 yards and four TDs. His excellent rookie campaign has been a silver lining in an otherwise disappointing season for the Jaguars, and Thomas is showing no signs of slowing down ahead of an AFC South clash against the Colts that's bereft of playoff implications. If nothing else, Thomas would love to try to one-up fellow rookie first-round pick Malik Nabers, who put up 171 receiving yards and two TDs against this Indianapolis secondary last week, when the Colts still had something to play for.

Adam Thielen, CAR at ATL ($28): Atlanta is the team with something on the line in this game, as the Falcons would win the NFC South with a victory and a Buccaneers loss, but Thielen's in good position to produce as the Panthers try to play spoiler. With Chuba Hubbard on IR, Thielen is the only reliable offensive player on the roster for Carolina, and the veteran wideout thrived in that role with 110 receiving yards and two TDs in last week's 48-14 loss to Tampa Bay. Even if the Panthers experience another blowout loss, Thielen will likely carry over the momentum from an excellent month of December, in which he caught 32 of 40 targets for 405 yards and four TDs across five games. Atlanta's 21 receiving TDs allowed to WRs are the most in the NFL.

Calvin Ridley, TEN vs. HOU ($26): Only the Falcons have given up more receiving TDs to wideouts than Houston's 20, and the Texans will likely be even more vulnerable in the secondary since they are locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC and will likely rest starters. Ridley has had an inconsistent first year in Tennessee, but he had his second-highest receiving yardage total of the season (93) in the first meeting with Houston, and the Titans will likely funnel the ball to him early and often since Ridley needs only 59 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the third time in his career. He has found success at various points in the season with both Mason Rudolph and Will Levis, which is good since the Titans intend to feature both QBs against Houston.

Honorable Mentions:

Mike Evans, TB vs. NO ($37); Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. KC ($30); Michael Pittman, IND vs. JAC ($22)

Against the Grainers:

Malik Nabers, NYG at PHI ($33); Tyreek Hill, MIA at NYJ ($28); Ricky Pearsall, SF at ARI ($10)

TIGHT END

Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. CAR ($13): Pitts has failed to endear himself to skeptical fantasy managers with yet another disappointing season, but the talented TE showed some promising chemistry with rookie QB Michael Penix last week. They connected for a game-tying TD on fourth down late in the fourth quarter of Atlanta's overtime loss to Washington, and Pitts posted his highest yardage total since Week 10 (44 yards) to go with his first TD since Week 8. Pitts had 70 yards in the first meeting with the Panthers, and the reward outweighs the risk with the affordable TE in this matchup considering Carolina has allowed a league-high 11 TDs to TEs and Atlanta needs a win to have any chance at the postseason.

Honorable Mentions:

Brock Bowers, LV vs. LAC ($24); Jonnu Smith, MIA at NYJ ($22); Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. WAS ($11)

Against the Grainers: 

Zach Ertz, WAS at DAL ($18); Chig Okonkwo, TEN vs. HOU ($15); Brenton Strange, JAC at IND ($10)

DEFENSE

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. NO ($15): The Buccaneers have the perfect blend of situation and matchup. Needing a win to get into the playoffs, Tampa Bay's defense will be playing with maximum effort all game against a Saints offense that's been decimated by injuries at QB, RB and WR. It doesn't look like Derek Carr (hand) or Alvin Kamara (groin) will make it back for New Orleans, which has scored 10 points or fewer in four of the previous five games started by rookie QB Spencer Rattler, who has two touchdown passes compared to eight turnovers in those five starts.

Honorable Mentions:

Denver Broncos vs. KC ($20); Miami Dolphins at NYJ ($16); Washington Commanders at DAL ($13)

Against the Grainers: 

New York Giants at PHI ($10); New England Patriots vs. BUF ($10); Las Vegas Raiders vs. LAC ($10)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Odds, Expert Picks & Props
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Odds, Expert Picks & Props
Gameday Injuries: Week 18
Gameday Injuries: Week 18
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles NFL Betting Odds, Expert Picks & Props
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles NFL Betting Odds, Expert Picks & Props
Wide Receivers vs. Cornerbacks: Week 18 Matchups
Wide Receivers vs. Cornerbacks: Week 18 Matchups
NFL Picks: Week 18 Underdog Pick'Em Selections
NFL Picks: Week 18 Underdog Pick'Em Selections
NFL Expert Picks: Week 18 Saturday Night Football Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Expert Picks: Week 18 Saturday Night Football Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers