This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
The Vikings-Eagles Monday night matchup is the second game to kick off but has the potential to have more offensive firepower compared to the Bills-Titans game. It also projects to be a closer matchup, with Vegas suggesting the teams are largely a wash on paper. The result is the Eagles being a 2.5-point home favorite. Also unlike the Bills-Titans game, we can project roster rates to be far more even between the teams. There will still be plenty of leverage points, many of which will be discussed in this article.
As a quick overview of a Showdown slate, there are captain slots on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The setup is a bit different based on site, as there is no price increase to select a player as captain versus regular flex option on FanDuel, while there is on DraftKings. That makes things more straightforward on FanDuel, as you're primarily looking to simply maximize your points while also factoring in projected roster rates – which varies in importance based of the contest being entered. On DraftKings, the Captain selection will have a more direct impact on the way a lineup is built, and that build will also change more drastically based on cash vs. tournament contests. The rest of the roster can be filled by any position without specific designation.
Quarterback
Both quarterbacks in this game should be viable, but let's start with the more interesting option. Jalen Hurts ($11,600 DK, $16,500 FD) cut through the Lions' defense with little trouble and fully displayed both his passing and rushing upside in Week 1. Minnesota's defense doesn't project to be one to run away from, but it also projects to be significantly better than the Lions unit. In cash contests, Hurts is close to a lock, but there's a reasonable path to fading him in tournaments. The fade comes into play if you believe he will remain locked into A.J. Brown as his favorite target and Minnesota will be able to limit Hurts on the ground. If both of those are true, it makes sense to play Brown and fade Hurts.
Kirk Cousins ($9,800 DK, $15,000 FD) comes at a significant discount as compared to Hurts, particularly on DraftKings. There are some reasons why. First, Cousins doesn't offer any significant rushing upside. Next, the Eagles have a lot of talent on the defensive side of their roster. While not my preferred method of analysis, it's worth addressing the narrative of Cousins' struggles in prime-time games. Specific to Monday Night Football, Cousins averages only 6.9 yards per attempt and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. In prime-time games, Cousins has been just fine by averaging 7.5 yards per attempt and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. That won't be a significant part of my analysis. Cousins is likely to be the less popular of the options and is a nice start to a contrarian build.
Running Back
The Minnesota backfield is pretty simple to break down. Dalvin Cook ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD) accounted for more than 70 percent of Minnesota's carries in Week 1. We all know how explosive Cook can be, so the decision regarding whether to roster him will come down to a few things. The first is addressing the mismatch between the Vikings' offensive line and the Eagles' defensive line, which projects to fall significantly in favor of the defense. This will be a common narrative before the game, which makes Cook a great way to get exposure to the Vikings offense in a potentially contrarian way. If Cook projects to popular, I will be significantly less interested. Alexander Mattison ($4,200 DK, $8,000 FD) saw eight carries in Week 1. Unsurprisingly, he was efficient with the opportunity, but he's priced steeply for a near-certain backup role.
The Eagles' backfield is more complicated. Hurts will take potential production off the table for any back. This concept was on display in Week 1, when he took off on the ground 17 times. Miles Sanders ($8,000 DK, $12,000 FD) operated as the lead back in nearly every situation by earning 13 total carries against the Lions. He saw four of those carries inside the red zone and also ran the most routes of any Philly back. Fantasy managers might be scared off by the seemingly three-headed monster in the Philly backfield, but the numbers don't suggest it's a true share of the backfield. At the same time, it's unrealistic to project Sanders for a workhorse workload. Kenneth Gainwell ($5,000 DK, $8,000 FD) would be my next favorite back, primarily due to his ability as a pass catcher. Boston Scott ($2,800 DK, $7,500 FD) looks to be relegated to a breather-back role. Don't be fooled by his Week 1 touchdown, as he had only four carries total and one inside the red zone. He also did not run a route.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
We'll break the mold of going team-by-team in this section, simply because it makes sense to compare players likely to fill similar roles. The alphas of Minnesota and Philadelphia are Justin Jefferson ($13,000 DK, $16,000 FD) and A.J. Brown ($10,400 DK, $13,000 FD), respectively. There's a noticeable price difference across both sites, favoring Brown. Based on their Week 1 use, both will dominate targets on their respective team. That brings us back to potential volume. Minnesota appears more likely to take more to the air based on both projected game script and offensive scheme. Due to price, Brown should be expected to draw a higher roster rate. He's a fine play, but my preference from a projection standpoint is Jefferson. He won't be contrarian, but the extreme price tag could deflate roster rate a bit.
DeVonta Smith ($5,200 DK, $10,000 FD) and Adam Thielen ($7,200 DK, $11,000 FD) are the secondary pass catchers from each team. Smith led the Eagles with 42 routes run in Week 1, so I wouldn't expect him to put up a zero-catch performance again this season. In fact, I expect the Eagles to try to get him involved early and run plays scheming him open during the scripted plays early in the game. Thielen posted a better stat line, though still an uninspiring one, in Week 1, but his peripheral numbers suggest his usage was similar to that of Smith. With target competition high for both, expect the better point-per-dollar play to be Smith.
The story is different at tight end. Irv Smith ($4,400 DK, $7,000 FD) not only produced nothing in Week 1, but Johnny Mundt ran more routes than him at the position. After the game, Smith explained that his workload was managed due to a lack of practice time during training camp, but even if that's true, there's little on paper to point to say Smith is a strong play. Dallas Goedert ($5,800 DK, $9,000 FD) is significantly more expensive, but there's no doubt he is Philadelphia's top tight end. He edged out DeVonta Smith in targets per route run in Week 1, but by insignificant enough of a margin to say we don't have a clear idea of who the preferred option might be from the Eagles/Hurts perspective. His price points are inverted from a site perspective relative to DeVonta Smith , as I'd rather play Smith on DK and Goedert on FD.
Quez Watkins ($3,200 DK, $7,000 FD) is the primary slot receiver in Philadelphia. He wasn't targeted in Week 1, but he has shown the ability as a deep threat in his career. Of his 50 total receptions, 14 have gone for more than 20 yards and four have gone for more than 40. He's a more attractive play on FanDuel because his volume will be limited — playing him is just hoping for a home-run ball connecting down the field. K.J. Osborn ($4,600 DK, $8,500 FD) most regularly occupied the slot for Minnesota in Week 1. His role was that of a more traditional slot receiver, meaning he worked higher volume routes but with less explosive potential as opposed to Watkins. Within the Vikings, it's interesting to note that Osborn had a higher target rate per route run than Thielen. I would have little hesitation in playing Osborn over Thielen given their respective prices.
In terms of punt plays, the aforementioned Johnny Mundt ($2,000 DK, $5,500 FD) could be in play based on usage in Week 1. That feels a lot like chasing last week's production, and limited production at that. Zach Pascal ($1,400 DK, $6,000 FD) is at least worth noting on the Philly side, but he ran six routes in Week 1.
Kickers
There's no weather forecasted detrimental to the kicking game. Greg Joseph ($4,000 DK, $9,500 FD) is the more expensive option on DK. Given that his home venue is a dome, it's of interest that he has converted 91 percent of his field-goal attempts at home and only 80 percent on the road. In part, that observation could be unfair because he's had to make trips to extremely cold environments such as Green Bay and Chicago regularly. This early in the season, I wouldn't have an issue with playing him on the road if that fits your build. Jake Elliott ($3,800 DK, $9,500 FD) is comparably priced and has typically been a very accurate kicker within 50 yards. Given that the game is Philly on the team with higher implied point total, I'd give him a slight preference for those interested in rostering a kicker.
Defenses
The game total suggests there will be a lot of points. The viability of rostering either the Philadelphia ($3,400 DK, $8,500 FD) or Minnesota ($3,600 DK, $9,000 FD) defense comes down to projected game script. Philadelphia has the better personnel, and for those who believe Minnesota will be chasing points, the Eagles defense starts to make sense. The hope would be that Kirk Cousins has to take to the air more often, leading to more opportunities for sacks, interceptions or other offensive miscues. Rostering the Vikings defense is betting on Jalen Hurts' strong Week 1 performance being more a reflection of Detroit's shortcomings on defense rather than growth from Hurts. I'm less enthused about the Minnesota defense from the perspective that the Philly offense is more likely to be centered around the ground game, leading to less opportunity for defensive points.
