Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Saints vs. Raiders

We get our first regular-season NFL game in Las Vegas on Monday night as the Raiders (+5.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook) host the Saints in a game with a 48.5-point total. The Raiders come in off a 34-30 win at Carolina, a game that included a huge performance from second-year running back Josh Jacobs, who rushed for 93 yards and three touchdowns while also catching four of six targets for 46 receiving yards. Meanwhile, the Saints beat the Buccaneers 34-23 in New Orleans thanks, in part, to running back Alvin Kamara, who scored two touchdowns despite racking up only 67 yards from scrimmage. Both players will be very popular in Monday night's matchup, one that has a $500K top prize on DraftKings ($10 per entry) and $200K on FanDuel ($9 per entry).

It's impossible to dive into this slate without recognizing that one of the best players in the NFL, Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas, will not play because of a high-ankle sprain. His absence cannot be under-stated, and it will likely change how the Saints try to move the ball. It should open up opportunities for others, but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll benefit the wide receivers who move up the depth chart.

RUNNING BACKS

We're going to start with running backs because the two starters in this game will play major roles for their respective teams. Alvin Kamara ($11,400 DK, $14,000 FD) is the most expensive player on DraftKings and the third-most expensive player on FanDuel, and while he could lead the Saints in carries, he's expected to see an increase in targets because of Thomas' absence. He was the second-most targeted player for New Orleans last season, and his 81 receptions were more than all but Thomas. Meanwhile, he actually led the team in targets and co-led them in receptions in Week 1, so while he may not be the most effective runner out of the backfield, he almost always makes it up in the passing game. Given Drew Brees' relative lack of arm strength these days, shorter passes to players like Kamara will be how the Saints move the ball, so there's every indication that Kamara will be busy Monday night.

In terms of props, which shouldn't necessarily be used as projections but are still helpful indicators, Kamara's receiving yards over/under is 37.5 while his rushing total is 52.5. Those aren't eye-popping figures, especially for the most expensive player on DraftKings, but we also shouldn't ignore that his -155 odds to score a touchdown is the best in the game. Given how much he is expected to be involved, Kamara should be a popular captain/MVP play, even with his high price on DraftKings ($17,100 with the multiplier), but if you read the game as the Saints scoring points and Kamara being heavily involved, he makes a ton of sense.

Kamara isn't the only one getting touches out of the Saints' backfield, which could make some a bit nervous about his total usage. Latavius Murray ($3,400 DK, $7,500 FD) actually led the team in carries (15) and rushing yards (48) against Tampa Bay, and he'll surely get some looks in this one. Given Kamara's usage as a receiver, it's not out of the question to roster both, but you're almost doing it for Kamara's receiving floor and any carries out of the backfield are extra.

Meanwhile, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs ($9,600 DK, $13,500 FD) comes at a bit of a discount because he's an underdog, and it's worth considering that the Saints allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs on DraftKings and FanDuel last season and held the Buccaneers to 86 rushing yards last week, allowing one rushing touchdown to Tom Brady. The Raiders had a decent run:pass ratio last week, with quarterback Derek Carr throwing 30 passes versus 31 team rushing attempts, including 25 by Jacobs, and the expectation is that it'll be similar Monday as long as they can keep the game close. In fact, the easiest way to keep the game close is to keep the Saints' offense off the field, which likely means milking the clock by giving Jacobs the ball over and over again. For who those think the Raiders will be able to effectively use Jacobs to keep Brees and Co. on the sideline then Jacobs makes for an easy captain/MVP. And any usage worry for Kamara doesn't really apply to Jacobs, as Devontae Booker ($1,800 DK, $6,500 FD), who rushed four times for 29 yards and caught three targets for 23 receiving yards, isn't likely to get enough opportunities to make him a viable option in his own right or to make Jacobs a weaker one.

QUARTERBACKS

Losing a top receiver is obviously a big deal for Drew Brees ($10,600 DK, $16,000 FD), the most expensive player on FanDuel by $2,000 because of Thomas' absence. As noted earlier, Kamara was the second-most targeted player for the Saints last season, but his 97 were 88 fewer than Thomas, who had 28 more targets than any other player in the league, which led him to an NFL-record 149 receptions, 33 more than the second-most. Given Thomas' absence, it wouldn't be surprising to see Brees' popularity decrease even though we presumably have more salary to work with because we don't have to pay for Thomas. Brees was quite pedestrian in Week 1, completing 18-of-30 passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns, his second straight game with fewer than 210 passing yards, including the wild-card game last season against Minnesota. Then again, he had at least 250 yards and three touchdowns in the five games before that. Ultimately, it all comes down to whether he can do it without Thomas, and that hesitation could make fantasy players look elsewhere.

One place they could turn is Taysom Hill ($2,200 DK, $7,000 FD), who is a quarterback on DraftKings but a tight end on FanDuel. The positional eligibility doesn't matter at all because the passing, rushing and receiving stats are worth the same regardless of position, though he's also more likely to run or catch the ball than throw it. He showed his versatility in Week 1 when he completed a 38-yard pass on his only attempt while also rushing three times for 13 yards and adding one catch for 14 receiving yards. One of his rushing attempts was inside the 10-yard line, though Hill isn't really a goal-line option when Murray and Kamara are available. Hill's viability isn't about volume, but it's clear the Saints like to run a few plays for him each game, and if he can get loose on one, he could really pay off for his relatively low salary.

Meanwhile, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr ($9,200 DK, $13,000 FD) continues to mostly be a game manager, rarely showing enough upside to warrant serious captain/MVP consideration. Carr threw multiple touchdowns just once in the final eight games last season, and he completed 22 of 30 passes for 239 yards and one touchdown last week at Carolina. He doesn't really have any rushing floor, so while he makes for a decent flex option, you have to wonder whether it's worth the roster spot when you can target Jacobs and maybe one or two Raiders pass catchers.

PASS CATCHERS

It's not like Carr doesn't have good receivers, it's just that he doesn't really get enough opportunities to air it out and let them all shine. Tight end Darren Waller ($7,400 DK, $11,500 FD) led the team in targets (117), receptions (90) and receiving yards (1,145) last season, and he was at it again in Week 1, leading them in targets (eight) and receptions (six), while his 45 yards were the third-most on the team. Waller has some excellent games last season, including five with more than 100 yards, though he only scored three touchdowns, including two in Week 7 at Green Bay when he had 126 yards by catching seven of eight targets. There's definitely upside to be had, so Waller will absolutely garner some captain/MVP consideration as arguably the Raiders' best pass catcher.

The next name many will look to is Henry Ruggs III ($6,800 DK, $9,500 FD) if he's able to play after coming into the game questionable because of a knee injury. Ruggs was a limited practice participant Saturday, but the expectation is that he'll give it a go. While he caught just three of five targets last week, his 55 receiving yards were a team-high, and he certainly has the speed to break off a big play or two. If Ruggs is unable to go, fantasy players could move to Bryan Edwards ($4,800 DK, $7,000 FD) even though he had a very disappointing debut, catching only one pass (his only target) for nine yards last week, though only two rookie wideouts played more offensive snaps. Edwards has the unknown upside that many people like to target as opposed to someone like Nelson Agholor ($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD), who caught only one pass last week too, though his went for a touchdown. We also have to contend with targets to Hunter Renfrow ($5,800 DK, $7,500 FD), who is more of a possession receiver and unlikely to have a high aDOT, and of course, there's backup tight end Jason Witten ($1,000 DK, $5,500 FD), who can always annoyingly show up in the end zone but most likely won't. There were also some preseason expectations for Zay Jones ($600 DK, $5,000 FD), but he played only nine offensive snaps last week. Given the lack of enthusiasm, you can see why many will just play Jacobs and/or Waller and/or Ruggs and move on.

Given Thomas' absence for the Saints, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders ($8,800 DK, $10,000 FD) will surely be more popular than he would have been, though tight end Jared Cook ($8,000 DK, $10,500 FD) could end up being the one on more rosters, at least on DraftKings, because he's a bit cheaper and coming off a Week 1 when he caught five of seven targets for a team-high 80 yards while Sanders caught three of five targets for 15 yards and a touchdown. Neither player has big-play upside, so you're mostly rostering them for volume, of which Cook seems to have that advantage.

No. 3 wide receiver Tre'Quan Smith ($6,400 DK, $8,000 FD) will likely move into the starting lineup in Thomas' place, but he actually had a lower aDOT than Cook (9.0 vs. 10.5) last season. The issue is that Smith just has no track record of being a reliable fantasy option, which means he'll likely be mostly unused by cash-game players. Other guys who presumably could see a sliver of opportunity include Deonte Harris ($2,400 DK, $6,000 FD) and Josh Hill ($800 DK, $5,500 FD), a duo that combined for one catch for 17 yards last week thanks to Harris. Fantasy players who make a plethora of lineups shouldn't exclude these guys, but they really shouldn't be big considerations for people who make few or one lineup.

KICKERS

With a relatively high total, rostering kickers in GPPs doesn't seem ideal, especially with both Wil Lutz ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD) and Daniel Carlson ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) more expensive than Murray, who actually plays consistently and could get even more touches if the Saints use Kamara more as a receiver. That being said, they still have decent floors, so you can't fault anyone for considering them in cash games.

DEFENSES

Carr and Brees combined for 12 interceptions on 891 pass attempts last season, and they were sacked a total of 41 times, so it's tough to get excited about either defense based on turnovers. The Saints ($5,200 DK) are considerably more expensive than the Raiders ($2,800 DK) because they are favorites, and the former's price is high enough that you kind of need a touchdown to really make them worthwhile. Meanwhile, the Raiders are priced in a spot where it might be worth a shot at a special teams score if you don't want to rely on the trickery of Sean Payton to get Taysom Hill into the end zone.