Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Chiefs vs. Chargers

We're treated to the highest total game of Week 11 on Monday night, with FanDuel Sportsbook at 52.5 for the Chiefs "at" the Chargers in Mexico City, with the Chiefs 4.5-point favorites. The Chargers' offense still has good skill players, though it hasn't led to a plethora of points, failing to score more than 24 points in eight of 10 games, though they've reached exactly 24 twice. Meanwhile, the Chiefs haven't had problems scoring, certainly not with Patrick Mahomes healthy, but given their defensive problems, points are expected to be scored on both sides.

QUARTERBACKS

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ($12,000 DK, $16,500 FD) is by far the most expensive player on both sites, sitting $1,400 more than the second-highest and $3,000 more than the third-highest on DraftKings, and he's $1,000 and $2,500 more than the same spots on FanDuel. His salary is so high on DraftKings that he takes up 36 percent of the total salary cap if you use him as captain. The benefit of Mahomes is that you never really have to worry whether or not he's a good play on his own; of course he is. The real issue is whether he's worth the price, and Monday night's makes it very tough to roster him with his receivers, making lineups without Mahomes but multiple pass catchers an alternative to burning so much salary in one spot. Then again, there will be people who still jam him into the 1.5x multiplier and hope their value plays (i.e. cheap guys) do enough.

On the other hand, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers ($8,800 DK, $13,500 FD) isn't even the most expensive player on his own team on FanDuel, though he is on DraftKings by $200. He is coming off one of his worst games of the season, completing 17 of 31 passes for 207 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions against the Raiders, the second time in the past three games he's failed to reach 210 passing yards. A bigger commitment to the running game has contributed to his decrease in production, as he threw 31 or fewer passes in each of the past three games, something he did just once in the first seven. On the plus side, he's facing a Chiefs defense that's allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three straight games, moving them to the 10th-most fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks on FanDuel and 12th-most on DraftKings, so matchup-wise he's a potential target. However, the Chiefs have really struggled containing opposing running backs, so Rivers' ownership isn't likely to be overly high, and he's probably not going to be a really high captain/MVP pick, making him more attractive to those who prefer to play more contrarian.

RUNNING BACKS

Attacking the Chiefs' run defense will likely be a popular strategy Monday, as they've allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs this season on DraftKings and the second-most on FanDuel. Melvin Gordon ($8,600 DK, $14,000 FD) is likely to be the first place to look when trying to go against the Chiefs' defensive weakness, as he continues to see his usage increase each week we get further from his four-game contract holdout. He's now rushed at least 20 times in back-to-back games, highlighted by last week's 22-carry, 108-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Raiders, giving him four rushing touchdowns in the past three games. His heavy use out of the backfield likely won't be ignored, especially for those looking for a cheaper (though not cheap) captain from the Chargers. However, fellow running back Austin Ekeler ($6,600 DK, $9,500 FD) shouldn't be ignored, especially on DraftKings because of the full point per reception. Ekeler isn't getting nearly as many carries with Gordon back, but he's still scored a receiving touchdown in three of his last four games, catching 15 of 17 targets for 189 yards over that span, one that also saw him rush 26 times for 99 yards. A lot of that receiving work came in Week 7 against the Titans when he caught seven of eight targets for 118 yards and a touchdown, so we probably shouldn't overlook that he's had only eight targets in the past three games. Nevertheless, he still plays a big role for the Chargers and should get some ownership, though he's unlikely to be a popular captain/MVP play. Third-stringer Justin Jackson ($2,800 DK, $6,500 FD) is doubtful to play because of a calf injury, so while that could mean more opportunities for Troymaine Pope ($400 DK, $5,500 FD), he's really unlikely to see enough of the field to justify consideration.

The Chiefs' defense is bad against the run, but that doesn't mean the Chargers have been good, as they've allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs on DraftKings and FanDuel this season, which will surely put some eyes toward Damien Williams ($7,400 DK, $11,500). Williams is officially questionable after missing practice Friday because of a personal matter, but he made the trip to Mexico and is expected to play. He was given a workload boost last week after the surprise inactive for LeSean McCoy ($5,200 DK, $8,000 FD), rushing 19 times for 77 yards while catching all five targets for 32 receiving yards, though that level is likely to decrease a bit Monday because McCoy is expected back. Otherwise, Darrel Williams ($4,200 DK, $5,500 FD) could turn into the highest-owned player if Damien and McCoy sit, though that's highly unlikely. Damien Williams could still be a popular choice because he's still the lead back, but he simply isn't likely to have bell-cow opportunities, with last week's 19-carry game his first with more than 13 this season, and only his third time over nine.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill ($10,600 DK, $15,500 FD) is the second-most expensive player on both sites, which can't be surprising given he's had at least 140 yards and a touchdown in each of the past two games, including last week's huge game when he caught 11 of 19 targets for 157 yards. Despite playing just six games, Hill leads the team with five receiving touchdowns, 763 air yards and a 14.4 aDOT, and the only reason to fade him is because he's expensive and you want access to Mahomes and his cheaper potential pass catchers. 

Speaking of those pass catchers, tight end Travis Kelce ($9,000 DK, $12,00 FD) is the third-most expensive player on DraftKings (fifth on FanDuel), and he comes in as the Chiefs' leader in targets (81), receptions (56) and receiving yards (741). His 8.8 aDOT pretty much explains what kind of receiver he is, as he's a popular target of Mahomes but unlikely to break off long plays. Then again, he's always a threat near the end zone, as his 14 red-zone targets are more than twice the next-highest on the team, with 10 of those coming from inside the 10-yard line. Their prices make them tough to play together, but Kelce and Hill could theoretically be paths to fading Mahomes. Then again, there are other receivers who can have big impacts, albeit with limited touches.

Surprisingly, Sammy Watkins ($6,000 DK, $9,500 FD) is second on the team in targets (65) and receptions (40), though he still hasn't reached 65 receiving yards in a game since Week 1 when he caught nine of 11 targets for 198 yards and three touchdowns. In fact, he hasn't even gotten into the end zone since then, though eight, 10 and nine targets in the past three games, respectively, have to keep him in the conversation. Then again, his 8.8 aDOT (yes, the same as Kelce), isn't nearly as fun as what we get with Demarcus Robinson ($4,400 DK, $7,000 FD) or Mecole Hardman ($4,800 DK, $10,000 FD). Their prices are obviously similar on DraftKings, but Hardman gets a big bump on FanDuel because he scored a touchdown in three of his last four games. However, those scores came on just five catches (six targets), and he had just 146 receiving yards. Meanwhile, Robinson has been a more popular target, getting 14 passes thrown his way over the past four games, though he has just 10 catches for 98 yards. The reason they're a little more fun than Watkins is that Robinson's 13.7 aDOT is the second-highest on the team, and his 603 air yards are third, while Hardman's 10.8 is still better than Watkins and Kelce, and we've seen him use his great speed to turn short passes into longer touchdowns. Given the overall frustration with Watkins since his opening-week explosion, he could be an under-the-radar captain/MVP pick, though he's not providing any salary savings versus Robinson and Hardman.

The Chargers aren't nearly as deep when it comes to realistic pass catchers, and while he hasn't even hit 70 receiving yards since Week 3, Keenan Allen ($8,400 DK, $10,500 FD) leads the Chargers and is second league-wide with 1,128 air yards, while he's fifth in targets (95) and receptions (62); unfortunately, he's 16th in receiving yards (725) and 20 players have more receiving touchdowns (three). Nevertheless, with the expectation that the Chargers may need to throw in order to keep pace with the Chiefs' high-powered offense, Allen seems likely to reach double-digit targets for the fourth time in the past five games.

Unlike the Chiefs, there are really only two other players worth real consideration: wide receiver Mike Williams ($5,800 DK, $8,500 FD) and tight end Hunter Henry ($8,200 DK, $11,000 FD). Williams continues to be a huge touchdown regression candidate, as only Robert Woods (71), Leonard Fournette (58) and Davante Adams (57) have been targeted more this season than Williams (56) among players without a receiving touchdown. Williams' 840 air yards are also the second-most on the Chargers, and his 15.0 aDOT is the highest among players with at least 15 targets. His considerable salary difference from Allen could have GPP players really interested in the upside, especially since the Chiefs have been very good statistically against wide receivers, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game on DraftKings and FanDuel. Given that Williams relies more on big plays, it just takes a quick second to rack up plenty of fantasy points, as opposed to Allen who relies more on volume.

Meanwhile, Henry continues to be decently targeted, with nine, eight, six, 10 and seven in each of his past five games, respectively, accumulating 29 catches for 358 yards and three touchdowns in that span. His 10.0 aDOT is pretty solid for a tight end, though not that great, but with such a small target tree for the Chargers, the volume should be there Monday against a Chiefs defense that's allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends on DraftKings and 10th-most on FanDuel.

Amazingly, the Chargers don't have a single other active wide receiver or tight end who has even gotten 10 targets this season, so while you could be looking for some long-shots from the Chargers for the sake of low ownership and lineup differentiation, relying on Andre Patton ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) may be asking for too much, even though he had four targets last week, including two long attempts. Unfortunately, Patton was unable to catch any of his targets, giving him five straight games without a catch, but his snaps are high and he's likely to stay there because Geremy Davis is doubtful to play because of a hamstring injury.

KICKERS

A pretty high total will likely have people focusing on skill position players to fill their lineups, but don't forget that kickers can have impacts in high-scoring games too. Harrison Butker ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) has been pretty active of late, scoring at least 12.0 fantasy points in three of his last four games, including hitting eight of nine field goals in the past two games combined. There are plenty of upside plays in the game, but they are significantly riskier than Butker, who can't be ignored in cash games if you don't want to rely on third-string running backs or no. 3 wide receivers. 

Meanwhile, Michael Badgley ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) hasn't been nearly as good at Butker, but the Chargers' offense also hasn't been scoring a ton of touchdowns, which helped him get five opportunities in Week 9. Unfortunately, that turned into one attempt in Week 10, as he shows the volatility among kickers who don't play for elite offenses. Butker is fine if you have the expectation that the Chiefs' defense will give up yards but not touchdowns, though he's a rather boring option for cash games and GPPs.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Neither defense is expensive on DraftKings because neither has been good this season and plenty of points are expected to be scored. The Chiefs ($3,600 DK) are more expensive but come in with just 10.0 fantasy points in the last three games combined, and they've hit double digits just three times all season. The Chargers ($2,600) have been successful in getting a few sacks each game, but they barely force turnovers and aren't likely to against Mahomes, who has been picked off once on 291 pass attempts this season. The kickers in this game have higher floors, but they also barely have the potential for extremely unpredictable touchdowns. If anything, captaining a defense Monday night would be solidly contrarian.