This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
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A marquee NFC North clash that could turn into THE game of the Week 7 slate unfolds at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Lions, who sit just one game behind the 5-0 Vikings in the NFC North, come in off a 47-9 walloping of the Dallas Cowboys at AT & T Stadium.
Minnesota has both home field and rest advantages, but Detroit had the luxury of resting its starters for most of the fourth quarter in Week 6. With the stage set for what sets up as a wire-to-wire battle, let's examine top bets and a game prediction for the divisional showdown.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Betting Odds for Week 7
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Lions +108 (FanDuel)/ Vikings -122 (DraftKings)
Point spread: Lions +1.5 (ESPN BET)/ Vikings -1.5 (-109 BetRivers)
Totals: Under 50.5 points (DraftKings)/ Over 50.5 points (BetRivers)
The spread for this game has remained unsurprisingly narrow for some time now. Despite some movement over the last week-plus, as of Friday afternoon it ultimately sits right where it was before Week 6. Minnesota sported a -1.5-point projected advantage in the middle of last week, and although that briefly shrunk to -1 in the immediate aftermath of the Lions' rout of Dallas, it ultimately expanded to as much -2.5 on multiple occasions during this past week. The late-week movement has gone toward Detroit, however, as the number has come back to -1.5 over the last two days.
Meanwhile, the total has stayed on a pretty stable upward trajectory. It sat at an already elevated 48.5 before Week 6 action, but the fact the Lions scored nearly as many points on their own against the Cowboys naturally pushed the betting public into wagering that figure up. It was quickly at 51 points by Monday, and although there was a two-point course correction later that day, it began climbing again and has settled between 50.5 and 51 points as the weekend approaches.
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Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Betting Picks This Week
The Lions and Vikings appear set to duke it out for the NFC North crown all the way through Week 18, so this first matchup of the season between the division rivals carries plenty of intrigue. As already alluded to in the introduction, both teams come in with fairly good health and above-average rest, although Minnesota does have the edge in the latter.
Dan Campbell's head coaching tenure in Detroit precedes Kevin O'Connell's in Minnesota by one season, and both men are presently considered among the top at their position in the league. When it comes to head-to-head matchups, Campbell has a 3-1 advantage, with each game very competitive. The Vikings' one victory came in the first encounter, with Minnesota recording a 28-24 home win at what was then an improving but still inconsistent Detroit team. The Lions put together a strong finish that season that portended the sizable leap the team would take the following season. One of their accomplishments down the stretch was a 34-23 home victory over the Vikes. In 2023, the teams didn't have their first game until Christmas Eve and played again two weeks later, with the Lions recording 30-24 and 30-20 victories on the road and at home, respectively.
However, it bears mentioning those two most recent contests featured Nick Mullens at quarterback for the Vikings, with Kirk Cousins long been lost for the season at that point due to an Achilles tear. Nevertheless, O'Connell's offense proved capable of consistently getting the best of Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn's unit despite fielding a backup QB, as Mullens threw for 411 yards with a pair of touchdowns, albeit with four INTs.. Sam Darnold is now at the controls for the Vikings, and although he wouldn't have been considered much of an upgrade over Mullens just a little over a month ago, the 2018 third overall pick has experienced a major career resurgence.
Darnold has generated an 11:4 TD:INT ratio while leading the Vikings to a 5-0 mark, and he's had a bye week to build further chemistry with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Speaking of the Vikings' elite receiver duo, both enter the game healthy and have quickly looked in sync with their new quarterback. Jefferson also has a long history of success against Glenn's defenses, having recorded at least 124 receiving yards in six of his last seven games versus Detroit, including over 180 yards in three of those contests. The Lions could also miss one of the weapons they signed in the offseason to help defend Jefferson, as starting cornerback Carlton Davis is questionable to play due to a quadriceps injury.
The Vikings' upgraded their defense significantly this season and now appear fully immersed in Brian Flores' highly aggressive scheme. Minnesota has surrendered only 4.8 yards per play and has snagged a league-high 11 interceptions despite playing just five games. The Vikes also average four sacks per contest and could therefore disrupt Jared Goff, who works much better without pressure.
The final point that could tip this to a Vikings win in my mind is the season-ending leg injury Aidan Hutchinson suffered in the Lions' win over the Cowboys. Already one of the most dominant defensive linemen in the league in just his third season, Hutchinson missing the game is naturally a boon for Darnold's prospects and those of his weapons. The Vikings' depth also makes a potential absence by Aaron Jones (hamstring) a manageable issue, as Ty Chandler and recent returnee Cam Akers appear capable of handling ground-game duties if called upon.
Lions at Vikings Best Bets:
- Vikings moneyline (-122 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Justin Jefferson Over 91.5 receiving yards (-120 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
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Lions @ Vikings Prediction
Vikings 26, Lions 23
As already explained, this game should live up to its well-deserved hype. There's too much talent on either side for it to fall short of expectations. The loss of Hutchinson makes Minnesota's offensive aspirations a bit more achievable, but I still envision this game coming down to its final moments. Ultimately, a more rested Vikings squad that's also at home will have just a bit more in the tank, and a big game on the part of the Darnold-Jefferson duo will likely to spearhead the narrow victory.
