This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Once the top-20 picks are off the board in typical drafts, fantasy managers looking for a wide receivers might find themselves deciding between Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans and Tee Higgins. In this ADP battle, we'll analyze the case for each.
Tyreek Hill
There's no question Hill is one of the most dynamic players in the league. The big question is how much the dropoff from moving from the Chiefs to the Dolphins will be. In the last two years, he averaged 1,257 yards, 12 TDs and 147 targets. He had a 25.3 percent target share with Patrick Mahomes throwing 658 passes. And although the Dolphins are bringing in a new offensive scheme, Tua Tagovailoa threw just 388 passes last year (in 13 games). It's difficult to imagine that Miami will turn into a pass-heavy offense this year. Also, Hill would often have big plays when Mahomes extended the play, which allowed Hill time to get behind the defense. It's unlikely that will happen much with Tagovailoa. It's likely that Hill sees the most targets on his new team. But it's unlikely he comes anywhere near the target totals he's seen in the past. If his yardage dips by 10 percent from his days in KC, and if Miami can't reasonably get him to double-digit TDs, Hill will be more of a WR2 than a borderline WR1.
Mike Evans
During the early parts of the offseason, it was sounding as if Chris Godwin was going to take quite a bit of time to round into form from his 2021 knee injury. That concept had fantasy managers anticipating a significant boost in targets for Evans. The last two years, Evans averaged 112 targets — a number that is good but far from elite. Evans' fantasy value has been very TD dependent the last two years, as he's scored 13 and 14 times. And although he's posted at least 1,000 yards in each of his eight seasons in the league, he hasn't surpassed 1,035 the last two years. With Godwin appearing likely to return close to full health early in the season, it's reasonable to think Evans will retain a similar target share to what he's had recently. Also, the addition of Julio Jones could be problematic. Even if he plays a limited snap share, Jones likely would be on the field in the red zone. For the first time in his career, Jones won't have to worry about defenses focusing on taking him away. If that leads to even five TDs, those could come at Evans' expense. Also, it might be tough for Evans to see as many downfield passes as usual with the Bucs expected to have issues with their interior offensive line. Evans' ADP never really declined when the reports on Godwin improved. So at his current ADP, fantasy managers are betting on him having a huge season. That said, it doesn't look like things will be drastically different than last year for him.
Tee Higgins
Higgins had an early season shoulder injury last year. Not only did he miss two games, but he was not very effective in his first two games back. Otherwise, he showed he was a superstar the rest of the way. Including the playoffs, he posted at least 96 yards in eight of his last 13 games. He also scored six times in his last 10 games. When looking at his regular-season numbers, they weren't earth shattering, as he posted 1,091 yards and six TDs. Not only does the 33rd overall selection in the 2020 draft have great physical stature at 6-foot-4, 219, but he's shown the ability to win in all areas of the field. As good as he is, having Ja'Marr Chase on the team is a positive, as defenses will likely spend more resources trying to slow down Chase instead of Higgins. Another factor in Higgins' favor is that the Bengals' offensive philosophy became much more pass heavy after Week 12. In the first 11 games of the season, Joe Burrow threw more than 34 passes just three times. However, in the last nine games (including the playoffs), he averaged 35 passes per game. In what figures to be a pass-heavy offense, being a co-alpha who often doesn't get the alpha-WR treatment should allow Higgins to have a breakthrough season.
The Bottom Line
Hill likely has the largest range of outcomes. There's a scenario where he gets force fed all year but another in which Miami's a low-volume passing attack. If swinging for the biggest potential upside, Hill looks like the pick. Evans has been TD dependent. If he doesn't hit the lofty TD totals of the last two years, he could be a disappointment. Higgins likely will have an excellent scoring floor and we've yet to see his true ceiling. When I'm on the clock, I'm drafting Higgins every time.
