Paul Blackburn

Fingernail and blister issues delayed Blackburn's debut until May 29, but he still ended up passing the century mark in innings for the second straight season. Oakland's lone representative in the 2022 All-Star Game, Blackburn failed to replicate those results in 2023. His WHIP shot up from 1.26 to 1.54 as opponents hit 25 points higher against the right-hander. Blackburn lifted his strikeout rate over 20 percent for the first time in his career, but the jump in strikeouts came with a jump in walks, making it a wash. He's going to be pitching again for one of the worst teams in baseball, and the skills haven't been good enough to compensate throughout most of his career. Now entering his age-30 season, Blackburn could potentially benefit from some tweaks to his pitch mix, though that's merely theoretical. He has to be considered a health and performance risk on draft day.

Blackburn appeared to be finally turning a corner in his career until fate literally gave him a middle finger. Blackburn was 6-2 with a 2.26 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP through his first 13 starts of 2022 until he began experiencing some middle finger discomfort. He attempted to pitch through it making 8 more starts, but went 1-4 with a 7.94 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP in those final outings before shutting it down for the season and requiring surgery to repair the tear of his flexor tendon sheath in his right middle finger. Blackburn isn't blessed with much velocity or spin, but throws six different pitch types to keep hitters off balance and guessing which of the sextet is coming next. Oakland will give him all the volume he can handle as he is in the first season of arbitration and turns 30 during the season. The volume is what could get him to double-digit wins as the run support is unlikely to do so. He is worthy of a late round selection to see if the repertoire adjustments he made in 2022 can stick and help him pick up where he left off in mid-June.

A strained right forearm kept Blackburn out until June, and he made just six starts for Oakland before elbow tendinitis shut him down in early July. His ERA came in nearly four runs higher than in his 10-start rookie campaign, sitting at an ugly 7.16, but the underlying numbers told a different story. His strikeout rate nearly doubled, though it still sat at an unimpressive 16.0%, and he walked just 5.0% of opposing batters. His control and groundball profile led to a very respectable 3.59 FIP, with an extremely low 47.1% strand rate appearing to be the primary culprit for his inflated ERA. Blackburn's sample size was too small to conclusively say that he's really improved, however, and he enters the 2018 season with injury questions and a low ceiling due to his lack of whiffs. He'll be battling for a back-end rotation spot at best on a team that's shown a willingness to use bullpen days rather than trust shaky starters.

An extreme groundball pitcher in Oakland is almost always going to be worth a second look in deep settings. The problem with Blackburn is that he lacks the swing-and-miss stuff to be a real difference maker. As a 24-year-old last season, Blackburn posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 58.2 innings despite just a 9.2 strikeout percentage (3.4 K/9). He did a good job of limiting the free passes (2.5 K/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (56.3 percent groundball rate), but even so, the estimators point to Blackburn being at least a run worse than his surface numbers would suggest (4.38 FIP, 4.76 xFIP, 5.15 SIERA). Blackburn missed the end of the season with a bone bruise in his wrist and hasn't thrown more than 142 combined innings in any season. Making matters worse, he's not guaranteed a starting job out of camp, even on a team like the A's.

After working his way up to the Cubs' Double-A affiliate, Blackburn was traded to the Mariners as part of the package for Mike Montgomery. The big knock on Blackburn is his inability to miss bats, as he registered just a 6.2 K/9 in 2016 (which is identical to his career mark). However, he's made up for the lack of swing and miss to a large extent by posting consistently low walk rates and keeping the ball on the ground. At the end of the 2016 season, the Mariners traded Blackburn to the A's for Danny Valencia and subsequently added him to their 40-man roster, protecting him from the Rule 5 draft. Although the Bay Area native has only seen Double-A action so far, his control may be earn him a call up to the big leagues if the A's notorious starting pitching struggles continue.