This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week 1-8; -11.42 RW bucks(GROSS)
Overall 26-38; -27.02 RW bucks(AWFUL)
I have been wagering on sports for over 30 years and this is the worst stretch I can recall since 1992 in which I started betting college basketball and found out really quick it was not for me (3-14 start).
I am now facing a major three-week slump, so instead of saying "things will turn around" etc. I took a look at what was not working and I am making some changes. We always remember the losses 10x more than we do the winning streaks.
First, I will no longer be doing player props as my record has been abysmal and the variance is just too high when only doing a few of them. From what I have seen, the guys doing at least 10 props a week and more in the 20-25 range are the ones beating the books.
Second, I will look to focus on a group of games and nail the side and total.
Also, I will add in some parlays as means to hopefully catch up on the negative units. They are small unit plays with a nice payout and I do like 3 teamers.
I'm down 27 units halfway through the NFL season, I am not going to chase and try and win it all back in one week. That is the worst thing you can do. I am switching up the strategy and hopefully get back on the winning side over the next few weeks.
Atlanta Falcons 
vs. New Orleans Saints 
The last 8 games in this series have seen the under go 7-1. I am careful on team-specific historical trends in the NFL because of the huge roster and coaching turnovers, but these are division rivals and we have offenses not at 100%. The Saints are without starting quarterback Jameis Winston and the Falcons are without starting wide receiver Calvin Ridley.
The average score in the last eight games has averaged 43.9 points and that includes the 43-37 shootout in 2018. The implied oddsmaker outcome is 23.8-17.8. I don't see either team hitting those and it will be more in the 17-13 or 20-17 type of outcome.
BET – Under 41.5 (-110) for 2.2 RW bucks
BET – Falcons +6 (-110) for 1.1 RW bucks
Buffalo Bills 
vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 
The recent trend on games with a road favorite of 14 points or higher is towards the under (2-5 in the last 7). You don't get road favorites of 14 plus very often, so the sample is small.
This along with the Jaguars terrible offense has me leaning heavily on the under. The total in Jaguars games has gone under in 5 out of the last 6. The Jaguars are averaging 15.3 points per game and the Bills are allowing 15.5.
I look at what the Bills did to two of the weakest teams in the NFL by shutting out the Texans and Dolphins. I also look at what the elite teams in the NFL are doing to the weakest teams and the margins of victory have been very high, but also the weaker teams are not scoring at all.
BET – Jaguars under 16.5 points (-106) for 2.12 RW bucks
BET – Under 48.5 (-110) for 1.1 RW bucks
Cincinnati Bengals 
vs. Cleveland Browns 
This line would have definitely been more than a field goal if the Bengals had not lost to the Jets last week as double-digit road favorites. Love the spot here for the Bengals as small home favorites in a divisional matchup coming off a bad loss.
The Browns are free-falling as Baker Mayfield is not 100% and now the whole Odell Beckham Jr. drama will be over on Monday.
The Browns are 1-3 in their last 4 games scoring just 10, 17, and 14 points.
History in this series has games trending towards the OVER, but with the Browns offensive issues and the Bengals much-improved defense, I think 23 points for the Browns are just way too much.
BET – Bengals -2.5 (-105) for 1.05 RW bucks
BET – Browns under 23 points (-104) for 1.04 RW bucks
New England Patriots 
vs. Carolina Panthers 
Word came out about the status of Christian McCaffrey and Sam Darnold late Saturday. McCaffrey was activated from IR and Darnold passed the concussion protocols. That is critical for the Panthers as they are attractive home dogs for me at +3.5 at the time I am writing this. I also now like the over, which has fallen to 41.5 points. The total has gone over in four of New England's last five games.
I do not like the spot for the Patriots who are coming off a huge road win against the Chargers and now go on the road for a non-conference road game.
There are some trends in play for this game as the Panthers are 5-2-1 to the over and ATS in their last 8 games as home dogs. Home dogs between 3.5 and 5.5 points are 12-6 ATS in the last 18 games.
BET – Panthers +3.5 (-115) for 1.15 RW bucks
BET – Over 41.5 (-110) for 1.1 RW bucks
Houston Texans 
vs. Miami Dolphins 
I have both teams about equal in power ratings and I don't think Miami has any home-field advantage. With news of Tyrod Taylor back for the Texans, I would have this game at Miami -1 or -1.5 at most.
Getting 5.5 points is a gift here as the Texans are very live to win the game outright. The Dolphins were lucky to win their only game of the season Week 1 against the Patriots, so they very easily could be 0-8.
The game-time temperature is forecast between 70-75 degrees and the angle in play for me is on the over as I can see the defenses (which are not very good to begin with) being gassed in the second half. The over is 6-2 in the last 8 Dolphins home games in November.
When you have two bad offenses, but also two bad defenses, the over is where I love to turn because you get a depressed total.
BET – Texans +5.5 (-105) for 1.05 RW bucks
BET – Over 46.5 (-110) for 1.1 RW bucks
3 TEAM PARLAYS
I have had success with 3 team parlays over the years, so I will be adding a couple to my article as a means to hopefully get back on the plus side.
Cowboys -9.5 (-114)
Chargers -1.5 (-110)
Rams -7 (-115)
I am laying the big wood on the Cowboys and Rams here as I think both are in great spots to cover easily. The Chargers should bounce back as small road favorites off a loss against an Eagles team that is not very good.
BET – 1 RW buck to win 5.7 RW bucks
Falcons ML +220
Texans ML +205
Panthers ML +154
These were already recommended above with the spread, but I like the huge payout on the moneyline. There is a good chance if I hit the games on the spread, they will win the games outright as all three are under touchdown underdogs.
BET – 1 RW buck to win 23.79 RW bucks
*Editor's Note: Check out our Parlay Calculator to build out your own parlays and see the odds and implied probability.
