This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
*Picks in Bold
Philadelphia Eagles 
(-3.5) (-110) at New York Giants 
I'm not scared to advise a road favorite in this year's NFL and you shouldn't be afraid to take one. In fact, in this case, home-field might be a negative for the Giants, who are a sad operation at this point and play much better on the road. The Eagles are a sexy play right now, backed by a couple of major betting groups that have crushed them in recent weeks, even before they changed their offensive philosophy and became a rushing juggernaut. Jalen Hurts is being used the right way for his skillset and RB1 Miles Sanders is back in the fold with fresh legs. Philly averages 5.0 YPA, 3rd best in the NFL, while the G-Men give up 4.4 YPA, which is in the bottom third of the league. Philly is 4-2 ATS on the road this year while the Giants are 2-3 ATS at home. It is going to take the league a while to get used to the Eagles' new-look offense and the Giants are not the team that is going to do it, particularly after a rough week in Tampa against the pass-happy Bucs.
Carolina Panthers 
(-2) (-110) at Miami Dolphins
Let's talk about another road favorite, shall we? Miami can't stop a nosebleed and Carolina, similar to Philly, is transforming their look to a heavy dose of Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton on the ground. The Panthers are now a team that will rely on a combination of ground-and-pound and solid defense to bully teams into submission. Bullies pick on the weak and there aren't too many units softer than the Dolphins' run defense. Sure, it might look improved on the surface over the last three weeks, but two of those games were against Houston and the Jets and the very odd performance by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on Thursday night. I don't buy their improvement at all. I hold a nice ticket on Carolina to win the NFC South that I placed in the preseason, so I have been high on this team all year. With their weapons getting healthy, I see the Panthers getting a comfortable win before their bye and the stretch run.
Washington Football Team 
(-1) (-106) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Simply put, the Seahawks are a broken team. It is time to dissolve the Pete Carroll-Russell Wilson partnership and move this team in a new direction because the current one based on awful o-lines and suspect defenses is old and stale. Now, Carroll has said he wants to get back to running the ball more with said awful o-line and a cast of misfits at RB. On the other side, don't look now, but Washington looks like an energized and transformed squad coming out of their bye with impressive wins over Tampa and Carolina. The offense is more efficient as they have put Taylor Heineke in positions to succeed and the defense, even with the Chase Young injury, has improved. Seattle is dead last in TOP/Drive on offense AND defense. That's a rough combination…..it is tough to score when you never have the ball. Prime Time Russ is generally not a guy to bet against, but he is clearly not yet healthy and I will continue to play against Seattle until he proves otherwise.
Other Bets
2-Team Teaser: Tennessee Titans (+10.5) and Minnesota Vikings (+7.5), Parlay (+128)
New England is a team that I have been high on all year. I hold a few futures tickets that feature the Patriots, but now, it seems the market has caught up to the hype. Last week's combined results of these two teams have exaggerated this spread to the point where it is out of control. Tennessee and QB Ryan Tannehill were embarrassed by the lowly Texans last week, and the Titans would love to get a win ahead of next week's bye. The Patriots do have the ability to blow teams out but generally look to rely on their stout defense and rushing attack to pound teams into submission. In the other game, Minnesota is coming off a HUGE win over rival Green Bay and now travels to the West Coast to take on a very physical 49ers team. Normally, that is a recipe to stay away from, but San Fran has not been a strong home team in the Kyle Shanahan era. This is also a tough travel spot for SF, sling-shotting a trip to Jacksonville between two home games. I see the energized Vikings staying close with the sluggish Niners.
Jonathan Taylor over 80.5 rushing yards (-114)
This is a big number to hurdle, but Tampa's defense is not as good as the hype it gets. It just isn't. And now, they are tasked to slow down the man who has been an unstoppable force behind one of the best and most physical offensive lines in football and do it without (likely) start DT Vita Vea, their best run defender. Indy makes no excuses for who they are: they will run it with JT until a defense proves they can stop it. Frank Reich has architected this offense to perfectly suit their ultimate weapon. I'll be shocked if Taylor isn't over 100 yards, much less 80.5.
Miles Sanders over 63.5 rushing yards (-114)
As mentioned above, Sanders is now healthy with fresh legs and came away from last week's game feeling good after 16 carries and 94 yards against an excellent run defense in New Orleans. Reports are that he's hungry for an even bigger load, but I'm not sure he's going to need more than 12-15 carries to get over this number against a bad Giants rush defense. Anything over that is Thanksgiving gravy.
A very happy Thanksgiving to all of our great readers! Thank you, and good luck this week!
