Exploiting the Matchups: Raven About Ajayi


Quarterback

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Cam Newton, CAR at TB

Despite a roller coaster season from Newton that must have his owners' heads spinning, it is safe to start him this week. He has thrown for only 450 yards the last two games despite 86 attempts (5.2 YPA) while tossing just one score to five interceptions. The silver lining to his sporadic play is two-fold, however. One: his ceiling is as huge as his sculpted frame – over 300 yards passing, four total scores and 44 rushing yards less than a month ago. Two: his rushing production is spiking because of a stagnant ground game – 121 yards and a score in his last two down games. Getting to this Sunday, he should take off again facing a Bucs defense that's surrendered 300-yard days to the likes of Mike Glennon and Case Keenum and just saw similar dual threat quarterback Tyrod Taylor gash them for 268 yards and a score through the air even though his leading receiver – journeyman Deonte Thompson – only signed with the Bills the Tuesday before.

Andy Dalton, CIN vs. IND

With no Leonard Fournette drawing extra men into the box and with a banged up Marqise Lee (knee), the Colts' shoddy defense still allowed Blake Bortles to shred them for 330 yards and a score on only 26 attempts (12.7 YPA). If their defense, which lost rookie ball-magnet Malik Hooker in the process to a torn ACL, can let the scattershot Bortles do that, what will Dalton be able to do with A.J. Green? Sure, Dalton struggled in the second half against Pittsburgh, but the Steelers are the top ranked pass defense for a reason. And Dalton still threw two scores before halftime. Look for Joe Mixon to provide some balance to a Cincy offense that should thrive in this contest, making Dalton, who has nine passing scores in his last four outings, a quality option.

Josh McCown, NYJ vs. ATL

The Atlanta pass defense finds itself in the top half of the league in terms of yards allowed per game (215.5), but its touchdown:interception ratio of 9:2 is tied for the fourth worst rate. Moreover, the Falcons have allowed the likes of Mike Glennon, Jay Cutler and a receiver-less Tyrod Taylor to each find the end zone en route to productive days. McCown is coming off his best fantasy day of the season with four total scores and rides a three-game streak with multiple TDs into a pivotal game for Gang Green to keep pace in the AFC East.

Matt Ryan, ATL at NYJ

Six games, seven touchdowns for Ryan. The Falcons offense has been stuck in neutral all year and even the yards-and-points-bleeding Patriots couldn't get them in gear last week. While that should be concerning, it should not be blown out of proportion. New England also limited Jameis Winston and his glut of weapons a few weeks ago. They are a rising defense and were aided by foggy conditions in a game that likely caused deeper mental stress than usual for Atlanta. But if the Dolphins can throw for four touchdowns on the Jets' young defense with two quarterbacks getting multiple scores, the reigning league MVP can get on track against them.

Running Back

Jay Ajayi, MIA at BAL

Ajayi owners likely have yet to bench him, but chances are they've thought about it. Behind a shaky Dolphins offensive line and with little threat of a passing attack, Ajayi has struggled mightily on the ground more often than not, with three games of 51 or fewer rushing yards and more than 77 scrimmage yards only twice. Moreover, Ajayi has more lost fumbles (one) than touchdowns (zero). But his owners can confidently forget about all of that for at least one week. Ajayi will get to attack a last-ranked Ravens run defense that just let Latavius Murray look like Adrian Peterson was donning purple again. Baltimore has given up at least 150 rushing yards to opposing backfields in four of their last five games, and with Matt Moore replacing an injured Jay Culter (ribs) to give the passing game a boost, Ajayi should face some lighter fronts and keep that trend going.

Joe Mixon, CIN vs. IND

The Colts are the only defense in the league to have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns, and that is despite having faced especially weak backfields like Arizona (sans David Johnson and Adrian Peterson), Cleveland and Seattle (sans Chris Carson). They've been particularly battered the last two weeks as they've allowed a touchdown to each of the top two rushers they've faced while giving up at least 169 yards to both backfields with a 100-yard rusher in each game. Mixon, who outrushed Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill against the Steelers on the same number of carries (6.9 YPC for Mixon to 2.1 for Bernard/Hill), voiced his frustration about his touches and should get fed as a result. Expect a return to the pre-bye usage that saw Mixon tally 50 carries in three games.

Matt Forte, NYJ vs. ATL

Although Forte has yet to receive double digit carries in a single game, he's managed at least 80 scrimmage yards in his last three full games (he left a Week 3 meeting with Miami due to a toe injury). The wily vet has managed to be productive by doing exactly what he has for nine seasons – move the chains as a receiver. In those three outings he tallied a combined 16 catches for 138 yards. It just so happens that the Falcons have struggled to defend tailbacks in coverage, allowing 51.8 receiving and 0.5 receiving scores per game to opposing backfields. While this is also good for Bilal Powell, that won't prevent Forte from getting his steady yards.

Ameer Abdullah, DET vs. PIT

Only four defenses have allowed more than the 4.7 YPC the Steelers have given up on the ground, and had the Bengals continued to run it, they too would have taken advantage of that fact. Despite getting just 10 touches in Sunday's game, Joe Mixon tallied 68 scrimmage yards while averaging 6.9 YPC. And Mixon is not alone in gashing the Steelers. Jordan Howard, Leonard Fournette and even Alex Collins notched over 6.0 YPC while topping 80 yards on the ground. Abdullah has yet to rush for 100 yards in a single game and has struggled at times with efficiency, but he has totaled at least 86 yards in half of his appearances and figures to be featured early and often as the best weapon Detroit has to try controlling the clock and protecting Matthew Stafford from a Pittsburgh defense that is tied for second in the league in sacks.

Wendell Smallwood, PHI vs. SF

It's always frustrating to see a backfield give touches to three different running backs, let alone four like the Eagles did on Monday night. But that Smallwood was returning from a pesky knee injury was likely a factor in that choice, as was the multi-score lead Philly often held in the second half. Smallwood may only be needed in a limited capacity again with the woeful Niners in town, but it's important to note that Smallwood not only started versus the Redskins, but he also looked like Philadelphia's most explosive runner. Even if he sits a lot in the second half this week, it'll likely be because he contributed to a big lead. After all, the 49ers have allowed the most receptions (46), receiving yards (526) and receiving touchdowns (four) to running backs.

Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson, TB vs. CAR

Starting Panthers cornerbacks James Bradberry and Daryl Worley are both over six feet tall and 200 pounds, but while they have size, neither will ever be accused of being a burner. In part because of that, the duo has struggled at times to corral speedy wideouts. Jackson was among the blazers they struggled with in 2016 when he posted 111 yards versus Carolina as a Redskin. That speed has been on display in recent weeks too, as Jackson has posted at least 73 yards or a touchdown in four of his last five games, with two scores and a 100-yard outing in that stretch. He may be flying under the radar a bit so far, but come Sunday he'll be flying past Panthers defenders.

Brandon LaFell, CIN vs. IND

It would take a pretty significant leap of faith to start a player who has yet to top 32 yards in a single game despite logging multiple targets and at least one catch in each. So how can one find hope in LaFell? That's simple. The Colts have surrendered a league-high 1,415 receiving yards to wideouts and in particular have struggled defending secondary targets. In fact, Indy has allowed a receiver that did not enter the year as his team's No. 1 to post a season high in every meeting. Even Kenny Britt – who became Cleveland's de facto top wideout in Week 3 because of an injury to Corey Coleman – posted 54 yards and a score versus this leaky secondary. The likes of Marquise Goodwin, Allen Hurns and J.J. Nelson have all topped 100 yards on the Colts, with Cooper Kupp, Eric Decker and Tyler Lockett all reaching at least 67. LaFell has 15 targets over his last two games and after his first score of the year versus Pittsburgh, he's trending up. Indy says he'll keep trending.

Mohamed Sanu, ATL at NYJ

Before tweaking his hamstring against Buffalo in Week 4, Sanu averaged 7.0 targets per game as Julio Jones' second fiddle in the first three weeks, registering at least 47 yards or a score in each outing. Returning from the injury following a one-week absence, he tallied a season-high 10 targets against New England. With that kind of consistent volume, Sanu has to be considered a flex option versus a Jets defense that's one of just three to have allowed over 1,000 scrimmage yards and nine or more touchdowns to wide receivers.

Marquise Goodwin, SF at PHI

The Eagles will lead early, control the game and ultimately win easily. In the process, however, Philly will give up garbage yards, particularly to receivers as their biggest weakness as a team is at cornerback. Prior to Week 7 they had allowed the second most yards in the league to wideouts. That changed after a meeting with a Redskins offense that often forgets it has wide receivers, but the fact remains, the Eagles struggle to defend them. Goodwin has an awfully low floor – 26 or fewer yards in four of seven outings – but he can also produce chunk yardage when given enough opportunities. He has three grabs of at least 48 yards so far and has generated at least 80 yards in two of his last three games with 24 total targets over that stretch.

Tight End

O.J. Howard, TB vs. CAR

The Buccaneers may have finally realized what they have in their first-round pick after targeting him more than four times for the first time this season. The banner day that Howard produced as a result – six grabs on six targets for 98 yards and two scores – will certainly earn him more work against a Panthers defense that's one of just seven to have allowed four or more touchdowns to tight ends. And Carolina has done that in essentially six games, considering last week the Bears attempted an astonishing seven passes, two of which, by the way, were completed to a tight end.

Kyle Rudolph, MIN at CLE (in London)

Sometimes it's best to just simplify the formula when choosing a starter at an unpredictable position. Rudolph doesn't have a game with more than 50 yards and has produced only two touchdowns, but the Browns will fix that. Two of Minnesota's top three wideouts, Stefon Diggs (groin/ankle) and Michael Floyd (hamstring), will be out or physically limited, so not only will Rudolph – who has caught at least five balls in three straight – be needed more, but he also gets to feast on a Cleveland back seven that's given up at least 60 yards or a touchdown to a tight end in all but one game.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, DET vs. PIT

There's simply too much working against Stafford in this one. After facing a pathetic slate of opposing passers through five games that made their standing as the top pass defense in football look like a mirage, the Steelers cemented that legit status in the last two games by limiting Alex Smith and Andy Dalton. In the former's case, Smith has torched most other opponents en route to ranking behind only Tom Brady in passing yards. With the latter, it's especially impressive given how the Steelers blanketed A.J. Green and shut down the superstar wideout. Stafford is inconsistent enough as it is, but facing this defense with Golden Tate (shoulder) hurting, he can't be trusted even with the quarterback landscape in total disarray.

Alex Smith, KC vs. DEN

This is nothing more than a low-floor, low-ceiling alert. After all, Smith is playing at an MVP level and the Broncos, for as much as they've limited passing yards (sixth fewest per game at 186.7), have allowed every quarterback they've faced to toss at least one touchdown – that includes EJ Manuel and a receiver-less Eli Manning. It's hard to feel overly confident, given that Smith has only produced multiple touchdowns and topped 200 yards passing in the same game once in his last six meetings with Denver. Yes, pieces have changed in that timeframe for both Smith's offense and Denver's D, but the main reasons the Broncos have been a stifling unit – Von Miller, Aqib Talib and Chris Harris – are still there and still as sharp as ever.

Deshaun Watson, HOU at SEA

It's obvious, yes, but that does not make it any less noteworthy. Working in Watson's favor: a Bill O'Brien offense tailored to his strengths of play-action and rhythm passing, two game-breaking wideouts, a bye week to rest/prepare and the return of his left tackle, Duane Brown, who ended a prolonged holdout. Working against him: Seattle. The venue and its deafening "12th man." Richard Sherman and "The Legion of Boom." And for fantasy purposes, a shaky Seattle offense that won't make this a shootout. As good as Watson has been – and he's been freaking awesome – there's just too low of a floor in easily his biggest test since coming off the bench to face "Sacksonville" in Week 1.

Running Back

Carlos Hyde, SF at PHI

The No. 1 ranked run defense, the Eagles have seen the fewest carries against them and allowed the fewest rushing yards to opposing tailbacks. In fact, their league low 67.0 yards rushing per game doesn't even illustrate how stingy they've been to running backs specifically, as quarterbacks and receivers have accounted for 175 yards of that sum. This stacked Philly front seven has given up a measly 42.0 rushing yards per game to tailbacks at a clip of only 3.1 YPC. With the 49ers traveling across country to a very uninviting environment with the league's 30th ranked scoring defense and 25th ranked scoring offense, Hyde may not get the opportunities to produce in the first place, and those he does get won't be good ones.

Lamar Miller, HOU at SEA

The Seahawks' defense has been miscast as forgiving this year because it has allowed 4.7 YPC. Admittedly, I even lost sight of that last week when upgrading Orleans Darkwa. For those who missed it, he was held to 35 yards on nine attempts. Obviously, the Giants abandoning the run doesn't tell us much about the Seahawks' ability to stop it, but let's not forget that prior to their bye they held Todd Gurley to 43 yards on 14 tries (3.1 YPC). In fact, their generous yards per carry allowed is grossly inflated by just two runs – a 61-yarder by Carlos Hyde and a 75-yard scoring scamper by DeMarco Murray. Moreover, a ferocious unit led by Bobby Wagner, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor in the back seven has also allowed the third fewest receiving yards (175) to tailbacks. Since Miller has not topped 75 rushing yards in a game yet, has no runs of 20-plus yards and cedes touches to the more explosive D'Onta Foreman, he should be buried on most benches this week.

Jerick McKinnon, Latavius Murray, MIN at CLE (in London)

The Vikings one-two punch at running back has taken turns replacing Dalvin Cook without any drop off from the stellar rookie's early season performance, but this is the week they'll both hit a wall. In three games without Cook, both McKinnon and Murray have had big outings with over 100 scrimmage yards and a score. Both are viable flexes most weeks, but this is not one of them. The Browns are tied for allowing the fewest yards per carry (3.0) in the league and are fresh off holding two very good Houston and Tennessee backfields out of the end zone, which included several stuffs of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry from the 1-yard line last Sunday.

Wide Receiver

T.Y. Hilton, IND at CIN

Seems obvious, no? Nevertheless, it bears mentioning weekly as long as there are owners that dare challenge talented secondaries with Hilton: he's not even a flex option most weeks without Andrew Luck under center. In case anyone needs facts to feel better about benching last year's leader in receiving yards, here it goes: 1. This is the number of touchdowns he's scored so far. Just one. In seven outings. 2. He's failed to top 50 yards in four contests and has produced 64.5 percent of his yards in two huge games. 3. The Bengals' stellar corners have allowed the fewest catches in the league to wideouts (48 in six games) and just held Antonio Brown to four grabs on 10 targets.

Jarvis Landry, MIA at BAL

Before tallying a score in each of his last three games, Landry had failed to find the end zone in consecutive contests since November of his rookie season (2014), a year in which he registered a career-high five touchdowns. With a trip to Baltimore on tap, that hot streak looks headed for a halting stop Thursday. The Ravens have been the second-stingiest defense to receivers this year, having relinquished just three touchdowns to the position while holding both Antonio Brown and A.J. Green in check. Moreover, game flow doesn't figure to be in Landry's favor this week. The Ravens and Dolphins are 31st and 32nd respectively in total yards, meaning this is likely to be a tightly contested, low-scoring affair that figures to see plenty of Jay Ajayi barreling into the league's last-ranked run defense.

Tyreek Hill, KC vs. DEN

Hill is being used differently than he was as a rookie, when he cashed in at least three scores as a receiver, rusher and returner. That will play a factor in his being limited by a Broncos team he basically owned last year. In two meetings Hill blasted Denver for four touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving, one on a kick return). But a key takeaway from those two showdowns was the change from the first meeting when Hill caught nine of 10 targets and cashed three of those for TDs. In the second outing, Hill busted a 70-yard run to the house but was otherwise shut out as a receiver with no catches on five targets. Fast forward to 2017 and with Hill having climbed to the top of the receiver depth chart, he's no longer returning kickoffs or being used out of the backfield as frequently. Outside of a couple long touchdown grabs, he's averaged 8.0 YPT and scored once. The elite Broncos corners can use over the top help to bracket him and contain him much in the way they did last year when he averaged just 3.5 YPT against them. While he remains the game's most explosive player, there's just too low of a floor this week to risk sticking with him.

Tight End

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ vs. ATL

Let's not get too excited too soon with ASJ. He may have a touchdown in three straight contests while leading the Jets in targets over that stretch, but he's yet to top 46 yards in five games played. Seferian-Jenkins is too touchdown dependent outside of PPR formats to risk using him against a supremely athletic Atlanta linebacker corps that has played a large role in helping the Falcons to be one of only four defenses that's completely held tight ends out of the end zone – an especially notable stat considering they just wrapped up a meeting with Rob Gronkowski in which he led the Patriots in targets.