This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week I had the displeasure of heading to Jacksonville and watch my beloved Buffalo Bills lose to one of the worst teams in football. However, the Cowboys, Rams, Saints, Bengals all lost as favorites as well and they were all at home. I won my favorite prop bet last week (Russell Gage over yardage), went 9-5 picking every game ATS, so let's see if we can keep that mojo going.
GAMES
New Orleans Saints 
(+3) at Tennessee
I have no idea what's going on with the quarterback position for the Saints but this line smells very fishy. New Orleans loses at home last week against the Falcons, the Titans go on the road and beat the Rams and if this game is on a neutral field, it's a pick 'em? Give me the Saints here as I hope Sean Payton figures out how to win here (take the points, +123 to win outright doesn't do much for me).
Buffalo Bills 
(-12.5) at New York Jets
This is betting that the Bills bounce back after their horrible loss last Sunday and while the Mike White story is nice, he hasn't faced this defense. Buffalo has been double-digit favorites in three straight games now (1-1) and the Jets seem like a team that when they get behind, they fold. I'll lay the points and back my Bills here.
New England Patriots 
(-2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
I don't know what voodoo magic Bill Belichick has but his teams tend to get better as the season goes on. Nick Chubb has been ruled out for this game and the New England backfield is in flux as well. I know that Belichick loves to prove his system can work with anyone (think Jonas Gray and that three-touchdown game Monday night seven years ago) so I'm not worried who's healthy and who isn't. This is betting on Belichick which I hate doing as a Bills fan; thinking with my head and not my heart here.
PLAYER PROPS
Mike Williams OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards
Let's look at the last three games for Williams: 2-58, 2-19, 2-27. So the nice people at the DraftKings SportsBook are basically begging you to take the under here. Contrarian Kevin? He says don't fall for it and let's take the over here. This is my favorite wager of the week and I think this game will easily end up as one of the highest-scoring games of the week with neither defense slowing down the opposing offense. This could be a wager that is settled in the first half and I don't mind taking the over in this game between these teams at 52.5.
Dan Arnold OVER 3.5 Receptions (-165)
Arnold and Trevor Lawrence clearly have a good rapport and it seems like Arnold is becoming one of the top receiving options as the season goes on (and since the trade). He's had four and eight catches over his last two games and the Colts rank 27th against the tight end position this season. I don't like laying these odds but this seems like an easy wager to win.
O.J. Howard OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
Here's another line that doesn't seem right given the fact that Howard has gone over this mark only once this season. However, Tampa will be without Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski and possibly Chris Godwin. This should mean that Howard has more of a role in the receiving game and he's capable of hitting the over with only two receptions.
PLAYER TOUCHDOWNS
Dalvin Cook -140
I'm pretty sure I'd be on this line if it was -200 or worse. That being said, I'll take the -140 and be happy about it. With an over/under of 52.5 it's hard to see a scenario where Cook doesn't score but stranger things have happened. I'd sprinkle a little on Cook being a two-touchdown scorer (+380) as well.
Devin Singletary +140
It doesn't seem like Zack Moss is going to play this weekend leaving the primary running back duties all to Singletary. With a 47.5 over/under total and being a 12-point favorite, it makes sense to have the main running back in this game at plus odds. Even if Moss suits up, I'd expect Singletary to get the lion's share of touches out of Buffalo's backfield.
Jonathan Taylor -175
My chalkiness is in play for this week and normally I don't like laying these kinds of odds. I'm comfortable doing this given the fact that Taylor is at home and I don't think the Jaguars have turned into the '85 Bears/2000 Ravens on defense. Taylor has scored in six straight games and has two touchdowns (+300 this week!) in three of those contests.
