This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
We may have to wait until September for another full slate, but there's still plenty of intrigue with eight teams on the board in the wild-card and divisional rounds of the playoffs.
Of course, it's a very different game on the smaller slates, with ownership percentage concerns taking on added importance in GPPs. I'm not saying you should entirely avoid Antonio Brown, but if you do have multiple entries at your disposal, it's definitely worth considering what kind of lineups are most likely to prosper in the event Brown only has a mediocre game.
Make sure to keep a close eye on weather, though I would also recommend the same thing for Weeks 1-17.
Anyway, let's take a look at the strongest plays for the wild-card round of the playoffs:
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers, GB at WAS ($6,400): In a wild-card round full of vicious defenses, only Rodgers and A.J. McCarron draw matchups that are even average. Rodgers obviously hasn't been his usual self while playing in an injury-marred Green Bay offense, but the recent drop in price largely makes up for his struggles, at least for our purposes. I wouldn't worry too much about ownership percentage at quarterback, as there's a decent case to be made for each of the signal-callers besides Teddy Bridgewater. Personally, I'll also be avoiding Alex Smith, Brian Hoyer and Kirk Cousins, the last of whom is overvalued by the general public at the moment. Cousins' combination of price and game log may seem enticing, but the Green Bay defense is far better than anything he's faced since mid-season.
Other options: Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at CIN ($7,200); Russell Wilson, SEA at MIN ($7,000)
Running Back
Marshawn Lynch, SEA at MIN ($6,500): Though pretty good when healthy, the Minnesota defense has still been vulnerable to the run, allowing 4.3 yards per carry during the regular season. Even in his first game back from surgery, Lynch is the only running back I consider viable at a price above $4,500, as Adrian Peterson ($7,300) has to face the Seahawks and Charcandrick West ($5,700) is just blatantly overpriced in a difficult matchup of his own. With Lynch returning to practice as a full participant, it wouldn't be surprising to see him get 20+ carries, and I'd even argue that he's the favorite to lead all running backs in touches this weekend. Furthermore, his price is at its lowest point in recent memory, and a big game would likely prevent teammates Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin from posting huge performances of their own.
Fitzgerald Toussaint, PIT at CIN ($3,900): This only holds up if DeAngelo Williams (foot) can't play, which seems like a pretty safe assumption for at least the wild-card round. Toussaint was the only other tailback active for Sunday's win over the Browns, making it clear that he's ahead of Jordan Todman in the pecking order. Fullback Will Johnson could poach a few touches, possibly even at the goal line, but Mike Tomlin's actions and words both suggest that Toussaint will take on a three-down workload. A Roethlisberger-Toussaint-Martavis Bryant stack provides a unique way to get heavy exposure to the Pittsburgh offense. Seriously, we all know Antonio Brown is beyond incredible, but that doesn't mean you should be scared to fade him.
Other options: Eddie Lacy, GB vs. WAS ($4,500); Giovani Bernard, CIN vs. PIT ($4,000); Spencer Ware, KC at HOU ($4,000); James Starks, GB vs. WAS ($3,600)
Wide Receiver
A.J. Green, CIN vs. PIT ($7,500): With everyone scared not to use Antonio Brown, it seems quite likely that the other high-priced wideouts (Green, DeAndre Hopkins and Jeremy Maclin) will be somewhat under-owned. Green may have an inexperienced quarterback throwing him the ball, but he also has the best matchup (by a wide margin) of the bunch. Pittsburgh's cornerbacks are unquestionably awful, and A.J. McCarron has actually been pretty good (okay, decent). Do you know why we all ignore Green's mediocre route running, inconsistent effort and generally lousy attitude? It's because he consistently eats the Steelers and Ravens alive.
James Jones, GB at WAS ($4,100): Jones is my favorite play of the entire slate, offering the best combination of price, matchup and expected target volume. With Aaron Rodgers lacking other reliable options, Jones has at least four receptions and seven targets in each of his last four games, with 19 catches for 279 yards and a touchdown on 40 targets over that span. Given the respective teams' favored alignments, Jones will likely spend most of Sunday's game matched up against Quinton Dunbar or a similarly vulnerable player, whereas Davante Adams should have to deal with 2015 breakout star Bashaud Breeland on the right side. Jones will probably be in every one of my lineups, so I'm not going to be a happy camper if the Redskins unexpectedly use Breeland to shadow the 31-year-old. Let's hope for the best.
Other options: Antonio Brown, PIT at CIN ($9,600); DeAndre Hopkins, HOU vs. KC ($8,400); Jeremy Maclin, KC at HOU ($6,400); Randall Cobb, GB at WAS ($5,800); Martavis Bryant, PIT at CIN ($5,600); DeSean Jackson, WAS vs. GB ($4,500); Tyler Lockett, SEA at MIN ($4,400); Stefon Diggs, MIN vs. SEA ($4,300); Marvin Jones, CIN vs. PIT ($3,700); Jermaine Kearse, SEA at MIN ($3,300); Jarius Wright, MIN vs. SEA ($3,000)
Tight End
Jordan Reed, WAS vs. GB ($6,400): As important as a contrarian approach may be in the playoffs, Reed is the one "chalk" pick that I absolutely love. Having safely established himself as fantasy football's No. 2 tight end ahead of Greg Olsen, the oft-injured Reed could easily lead the wild-card round in targets. Not to say that I want Reed in every lineup, but the Rodgers-Reed-James Jones game stack is definitely my favorite lineup base. If Rodgers does have a big game, Reed will likely be very active on the other side. It also makes sense to use two tight ends, as the running back options are pretty awful, and most people will use a wide receiver in the FLEX spot. There are also a lot of viable tight ends this weekend, providing us with plenty options.
Other options: Tyler Eifert, CIN vs. PIT ($5,000); Travis Kelce, KC at HOU ($4,500); Kyle Rudolph, MIN vs. SEA ($3,500); Heath Miller, PIT at CIN ($3,300)
Team Defense/Special Teams
Kansas City Chiefs at HOU ($4,000): Apart from a desire to avoid Houston ($3,900), Washington ($3,300) and Minnesota ($3,000), I don't have a strong opinion in regard to the team defenses. I don't believe in Brian Hoyer and think most people will go with Seattle if they spend up, so I guess that makes the Chiefs a good pick. Really, it's more about what fits best with your roster. A Lynch-Seattle combo makes plenty of sense, as do Ware-KC, Toussaint-PIT and Lacy-GB. It's also totally fine to just make a lineup and see what's left at the end, which seems to be a popular approach anyway. Good luck!
Other options: Seattle Seahawks at MIN ($4,100); Cincinnati Bengals vs. PIT ($3,200); Green Bay Packers at WAS ($2,800)
