This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
Along with Todd Gurley, the Thursday night game is this week's elephant in the room, pitting Tom Brady and the high-powered New England offense against a still way-too-cheap Lamar Miller and the Dolphins. I'm one of the many who cautions against using Thursday night players in tournaments because of the often-unjustified boost in ownership rates, but it's impossible to simply ignore a game that has the week's highest over/under, not to mention Miller and Rob Gronkowski.
Miller's combination of price, role and talent is hard to argue with, but I will say that there are a bunch of other strong options in the same price range that will all have much lower ownership rates. Though I still prefer Miller for cash games or 50-50s, his ceiling isn't much different from that of Charcandrick West ($4,700), Ronnie Hillman ($4,600) or Chris Johnson ($4,600). The only other Dolphin worth considering is Rishard Matthews ($4,300), who has clearly emerged as the team's No. 2 wide receiver.
As for the Patriots, Mr. Gronkowski ($8,000) is always a strong play, and with some value on the board at tight end this week, his ownership rate should be pretty reasonable. A Tom Brady ($8,300)-Gronkowski stack isn't a bad idea, but it's obviously very costly and won't exactly be an uncommon strategy. Julian Edelman ($8,100) is still too expensive and none of the New England running backs warrant consideration this week.
I usually do a quick round-up of injury situations before getting in to specific player picks, but the only situation I'm really concerned with this week will be discussed when we get to the tight ends.
Here are the top plays for Week 8 on DraftKings:
Quarterback
Andy Dalton, CIN (at PIT), $6,000 – Though he has no shot at actually finishing this season as the second-highest scoring quarterback on DraftKings, Dalton should build on his early-season success in a favorable Week 8 matchup against a Pittsburgh team that's solid against the run but vulnerable to the pass. With Ben Roethlisberger (knee) expected to return, this contest could easily become a high-flying shootout, and the Bengals still haven't had much luck with their power-running game. A Dalton-A.J. Green-Antonio Brown game stack is very enticing, with Dalton and Brown sticking out as two of the week's best values. By the way, this is strictly a tournament pick, as it's downright foolish to use any quarterback besides Philip Rivers ($6,600) for cash games. If not for Rivers' presence, Dalton would actually be my favorite signal-caller for both tournaments and cash games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ (at OAK), $5,200 – I'm a big believer in the Jets, and while that has more to do with the rest of the team than its quarterback, this week's matchup sets up perfectly for a classic Fitzmagic performance. The Raiders have that every-so-lovely combination of a strong run defense and poor pass defense, making them one of the top teams to target with opposing quarterbacks. Oakland also has a decent enough offense to potentially keep pace in a high-scoring game, even though the Jets defense has an advantage in that matchup. If Chris Ivory (quad) struggles to find room early on, we'll likely see a whole lot of Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall ($7,600) and Eric Decker ($5,300). The preferred stack is Fitzpatrick-Decker, but you could also make a case for adding Marshall, as the Jets' top two receivers account for a massive portion of the targets.
Other options:Cam Newton, CAR (vs. IND), $6,800; Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (vs. CIN), $6,700; Philip Rivers, SD (at BAL), $6600
Running Back
Todd Gurley, STL (vs. SF), $6,300 – It will eventually make sense to steer away from Gurley, but the time has not yet come. Despite ranking just eighth in price among healthy running backs, he's widely viewed as a top-three asset at the position this week, challenged only by Le'Veon Bell ($8,300) and Devonta Freeman ($8,000). You could maybe make a case for fading Gurley at this price if the matchup weren't so favorable, but with the 49ers heading to St. Louis as massive underdogs, the rookie still belongs in every lineup.
Ronnie Hillman, DEN (vs. GB), $4,800 – Coming off two 100-yard rushing performances in his last three games, Hillman is expected to lead the Denver backfield against a middling Green Bay run defense. C.J. Anderson will likely still poach a few touches, but with the Denver offensive line finally getting its act together, Hillman has a nice shot at the 100-yard bonus. He also figures to have a low ownership rate, especially in the Thursday contests that include Lamar Miller and Charcandrick West for similar prices.
Other options:Le'Veon Bell, PIT (vs. CIN), $8,300; Devonta Freeman, ATL (vs. TB), $8,000; Justin Forsett, BAL (vs. SD), $6,100; Charcandrick West, KC (vs. DET), $4,700; Chris Johnson, ARI (at CLE), $4,600; Darren McFadden, DAL (vs. SEA), $3,800; Antonio Andrews, TEN (at HOU), $3,300
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown, PIT (vs. CIN), $7,800 – In the three games Ben Roethlisberger (knee) played before his injury, Brown had 29 catches for 436 yards and two touchdowns on 35 targets. Roethlisberger is expected to play this week and Brown's price has dropped more than $1,000 from its usual level. Any questions?
Alshon Jeffery, CHI (vs. MIN), $6,400 – Though I've generally avoided matchups with the slow-paced Vikings, the price tag here is simply too good to ignore. Jeffery's probably a top-eight wide receiver for season-long leagues from here on out, yet he's only the 18th-most expensive player at his position on DraftKings this week. If you want another receiver with a similar Week 8 projection, it will likely cost you an extra $1,000. Despite this reality, Jeffery should carry a reasonable ownership rate in the low double-digits, as his early-season injury struggles have kept him somewhat under the radar. Prior to a Week 7 bye, he went for 8-147-1 against the Lions in his first game back from a hamstring issue.
Nate Washington, HOU (vs. TEN), $3,600 – Already throwing the ball a ton even when Arian Foster (Achilles) was healthy, the Texans are now desperately thin at the offensive skill positions. There's not another pass-catcher comparable to Foster among the Houston running backs, and the team's tight ends have been minimally involved in the passing game. With Cecil Shorts (shoulder) also sidelined, both Washington and DeAndre Hopkins figure to hit double-digit targets this week. Sure, Hopkins will probably be the one to have a big day, but Washington's $5,100 cheaper and coming off a huge outing of his own. With the exception of a Week 4 game that be barely played in because of injury, Washington has at least eight targets in every appearance this season, including 16 last week. It may feel a bit like point-chasing, but the targets will surely be there and he's still a decent player, even if the volume is mostly a product of his team's ineptitude.
Other options:Julio Jones, ATL (vs. TB), $9,200; DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (vs. TEN), $8,700; A.J. Green, CIN (at PIT), $7,600; Eric Decker, NYJ (at OAK), $5,300; Michael Crabtree, OAK (vs. NYJ), $4,700; Steve Johnson, SD (at BAL), $3,200
Tight End
Ladarius Green, SD (at BAL), $3,000 – If Antonio Gates (knee) misses another game, which seems quite likely, Green will be one of the top values at any position this week. He has at least 9.7 DraftKings points in every game this season, including the two contests that Gates participated in. Last week, with Gates absent, Green went for 4-45-1 and a pair of two-point conversions on nine targets, playing nearly every snap. Not sure if you've heard, but the Ravens aren't so good at defending the pass and the Chargers have no running game whatsoever. If Gates does play, I'll hopefully be able to pivot to Tampa Bay's Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder), who hopes to return from a five week-absence to face the Falcons on Sunday. With Vincent Jackson (knee) looking unlikely to play, ASJ could see an unusual number of targets for a player priced at $2,800. He went for 5-110-2 in his only healthy appearance this season, back in Week 1 against the Titans.
Other options:Greg Olsen, CAR (vs. MIA), $6,500; Delanie Walker, TEN (at HOU), $4,100
Team Defense/Special Teams
St. Louis Rams (vs. 49ers), $3200 – Last week, I foolishly advocated the Redskins D/ST over the Rams D/ST, figuring that both were in excellent spots at similar price tags, but with the Redskins likely to carry a much, much lower ownership rate. This week, I'll happily just take the best option on the board, despite my expectation that the Rams defense will be in more than one-third of lineups. Ownership rate matters at every position, but it's relatively less important for team defenses and quarterbacks, as the popular plays typically have very high floors. Even if Philip Rivers, Todd Gurley and the Rams D/ST disappoint this week, there's very little chance they'll be bad enough to totally sink lineups.
Other options: Atlanta Falcons (vs. TB), $3,400; Kansas City Chiefs (vs. DET), $2,800; Tennessee Titans (at HOU), $2,500
