DraftKings NFL: Week 5 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 5 slate includes only 10 games as teams are on byes for the first time. The 49ers have the highest implied total, which means we're set for another week of Jordan Mason chalk. The Packers-Rams matchup is sure to be popular as both teams are missing key players and therefore have affordable value at multiple positions. Ravens-Bengals is the high-total game going overlooked for stacks while Bills-Texans is appealing for similar reasons. Whichever route you  take, remember that correlation and leverage are paramount to winning GPPs. The opposite is often true for cash-games. This article highlights the top value for cash and includes suggestions for tournaments. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. 

• WR Jayden Reed at LAR ($6,500)

The Packers are loaded at WR, which keeps Reed from being a target monster week in and week out. Nonetheless, he's Green Bay's most explosive WR and has already proved it by topping 30 DK points twice in four games already. Now Christian Watson (hamstring) is out and Romeo Doubs (personal) is questionable, which means we can be more confident in projecting sufficient volume for Reed. On top of that, the Packers have a great matchup against a well below-average Rams pass defense. Cheaper value can be found in Jordan Whittington ($4,600), who seems to have emerged as Stafford's top target in the absence of Kupp and Nacua. I expect him to be popular in cash games. 

• RB Jordan Mason vs. ARI ($7,400)

Normally, I don't highlight a player this expensive, but Mason projects as the best point-per-dollar value on the slate, regardless of position. He leads the NFL in carries and ranks second in rushing yards. The matchup against Arizona is about as good as it gets. The Cardinals gave up 216 yards on the ground last week to the Commanders and 187 the week before against the Lions. They've allowed six TDs to enemy RBs through four games. Mason has put up 20-plus DK points in three of four and seems likely to do it again Sunday. Cheaper value can be found in Chuba Hubbard ($6,100), who's coming off back-to-back 25-plus fantasy-point outings as Andy Dalton has made the Panthers offense competent. They also have a plus matchup against the Bears. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jordan Love at LAR ($6,500)

QB Brock Purdy vs. ARI ($6,200)

QB Geno Smith vs. NYG ($5,900)

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. IND ($5,700)

RB Kyren Williams vs. GB ($7,600)

RB Jordan Mason vs. ARI ($7,400)

RB Kenneth Walker vs. NYG ($6,800)

RB Chuba Hubbard at CHI ($6,100)

RB D'Andre Swift vs. CAR ($5,700)

RB Tyrone Tracy at SEA ($4,300)

WR Nico Collins vs. BUF ($7,700)

WR Deebo Samuel vs. ARI ($6,800)

WR Jayden Reed at LAR ($6,500)

WR Diontae Johnson at CHI ($6,100)

WR Michael Pittman at JAX ($6,000)

WR Christian Kirk vs. IND ($5,700)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson at SEA ($5,600)

WR Dontayvion Wicks at LAR ($5,000)

WR Jordan Whittington vs. GB ($4,600)

TE Colby Parkinson vs. GB ($3,700)

TE Tucker Kraft at LAR ($3,500)

D/ST Denver Broncos vs. LV ($2,900)

D/ST Carolina Panthers at CHI ($2,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Green Bay Packers (25.75) at Los Angeles Rams (22.75)

PACKERS

By the numbers, this sets up as great spot for Green Bay's passing attack. L.A.'s defense allows the most yards per pass attempt in the league, the second-highest QB rating and the third-highest completion rate. The Packers are coming off a tough loss to Minnesota, despite a furious comeback led by Jordan Love ($6,500), who threw for 389 yards and four TDs on his way to 34.16 DK points. Christian Watson (ankle) was knocked out of the game early, leaving Jayden Reed ($6,500) and Dontayvion Wicks ($5,000) carry the load. Reed responded with seven catches for 139 yards and a TD while Wicks caught five passes for 78 yards and two scores. They'll have the opportunity to step up again with Watson out and Romeo Doubs also out, for personal reasons.  Tucker Kraft ($3,500) has out-snapped Luke Musgrave ($2,700) 82 to 39 percent through four weeks. Kraft projects as one of the better values at TE. Josh Jacobs ($6,500) will go overlooked this week with chalky RBs priced above and below him. He has multiple-touchdown upside against a below-average Rams defense and makes for one of the best leverage options at his position.  

RAMS

Los Angeles continues to sorely miss Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but so long as they're out, opportunities will be there for less-heralded WRs priced much cheaper. Jordan Whittington ($4,600) projects as the best value of the bunch after he played 97 percent of snaps last week and caught six of eight targets for 62 yards. Tutu Atwell ($4,900) played 90 percent of snaps and caught four of six targets for 82 yards. Demarcus Robinson ($4,800) played 85 percent of snaps and caught two of three targets. Initially thought to be the de facto No. 1 without Kupp and Nacua, Robinson has drawn more than four targets in just one of four games. I'd feel comfortable with Whittington in any format while Atwell makes for a good GPP dart at lower ownership. Colby Parkinson ($3,700) is coming off four catches on seven targets and projects at the top of TE value. Matthew Stafford ($5,500) has yet to eclipse 20 fantasy points in game, but Sam Darnold just threw for four TD passes against this Packers defense a week ago. He's cheap enough to be considered in large-field GPPs. Any way you stack this game, Kyren Williams ($7,600) is a great option. He has a rushing touchdown in seven consecutive games and continues to be involved in the passing game. He's matchup-proof whenever Kupp and Nacua are sidelined. 

• Favorite Packers Stack: QB Love + RB Williams + WR Reed + WR Wicks + WR Whittington
• Favorite Rams Stack: QB Stafford +/- RB Jacobs + WR Reed or WR Wicks + WR Whittington + TE Parkinson

Indianapolis Colts (21.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (24.5)

COLTS

Indianapolis plays fast and doesn't have much of a defense. Thus, their games are almost always fruitful for fantasy. They rank third in pace and their game average the second-most combined plays. I'm assuming Joe Flacco ($5,500) will start after he replaced an injured Anthony Richardson ($6,000) last week and that's what we're hoping for. Flacco turned Amari Cooper and David Njoku into truly elite fantasy performers last season and his introduction has already done wonders for Michael Pittman ($6,000) and Josh Downs ($5,100). Pittman is coming off six catches for 113 yards while Downs caught eight of nine targets for 82 yards in a touchdown. For what it's worth, Alec Pierce ($4,900) continues to see a majority of snaps at WR3 over Adonai Mitchell ($3,800) and neither are in consideration for me this week. With Jonathan Taylor (ankle) out, Trey Sermon ($5,700) is in line to start. Almost by default he projects as decent value but in general, Taylor's absence is should result in a bump to the passing game. Again, all of this applies if Flacco starts. I'd have considerably less interest in the WRs if Richardson starts as he hasn't show the ability to put up high volume in completions and yards.  

JAGUARS

There aren't many better spots for an offense than a matchup with the Colts, who've conceded massive fantasy scores to Justin Fields and Caleb Williams in the last two weeks and got dominated by Malik Willis the week before that. It's partly for those reasons why a struggling Trevor Lawrence ($5,700) projects among the best value at QB this week. He's yet to have a good game this season, but Jacksonville has had four tough matchups and now he's a bit underpriced. Brian Thomas ($5,900) has already proved his first-round pedigree and is coming off his best game after catching six of nine targets for 89 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss in Houston. Christian Kirk ($5,700) has had back-to-back solid outings with 15 catches on 22 targets and a touchdown in that span. Their success has been facilitated by the absence of Evan Engram ($4,600), whose status remains up in the air as he deals with a hamstring injury. Similar to recent weeks, Brenton Strange ($3,200) would be a viable GPP option if Engram remains out. As for the RBs, Travis Etienne ($6,700) continues to cede snaps and workload to Tank Bigsby ($5,900). Etienne's salary has dropped to a low point as a result and he's cheap enough to take a chance on. It makes sense from a leverage perspective too. 

• Favorite Colts Stack: QB Flacco + WR Pittman and/or WR Downs + WR Kirk or WR Thomas
• Favorite Jags Stack: QB Lawrence + WR Kirk and/or WR Thomas + WR Pittman or WR Downs

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Nico Collins or WR Stefon Diggs + TE Dalton Kincaid or WR Keon Coleman

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Zay Flowers + WR Ja'Marr Chase or WR Tee Higgins

QB Joe Burrow + RB Derrick Henry or WR Zay Flowers + WR Ja'Marr Chase or WR Tee Higgins

QB Brock Purdy + WR Deebo Samuel or WR Brandon Aiyuk + TE Trey McBride

QB Geno Smith + WR Wan'Dale Robinson + WR DK Metcalf and/or WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

QB Daniel Jones + RB Kenneth Walker + WR Wan'Dale Robinson +/- WR DK Metcalf

QB Bo Nix + WR Courtland Sutton + WR Tre Tucker or TE Brock Bowers

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Nico Collins vs. BUF ($7,700)

Fantasy football's No. 1 WR through four weeks, Collins enters Sunday's matchup with Buffalo on the back of a 12-catch, 151-yard performance against the Jags last week. The Bills are a tougher matchup, but they just allowed the Ravens offense to do whatever they wanted. With the news that Joe Mixon is out again, Collins remains the focal point of the Texans offense, and he's so good that teams will only hope to contain him. Another 100 yards and a TD is in the cards. 

• RB Kyren Williams vs. GB ($7,600)

Williams has a rushing touchdown in seven consecutive games and his sky-high usage will continue so long as Kupp and Nacua are sidelined. The matchup against Green Bay is nothing to fear as we've seen the Packers defense concede big games to Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor. Last week, they allowed 28 first-half points to the Vikings so we shouldn't worry too much about the Rams ability to move the ball and score points. Assuming they do, Williams is by far the likeliest beneficiary. 

Honorable Mentions: WR DK Metcalf ($7,000); RB Kenneth Walker ($6,800)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Trey Sermon at JAX ($5,700)

With the news that Jonathan Taylor is expected to miss time, Sermon steps in as the starting RB and projects pretty well given his cheaper salary and plus matchup against Jacksonville. I don't think he's a bad option but it does give off some Cam Akers vibes. We saw Akers emerge as popular cheap value the last two weeks in the absence of Joe Mixon and he failed both times. The Colts are road underdogs, and I'm evaluating Taylor's absence as more of a boost to the passing-game, assuming Joe Flacco starts. I also prefer D'Andre Swift ($5,700) to Sermon for the same salary and don't want to dilute my ownership getting exposure to Sermon. The one exception to all this is a Jaguars stack. If you're playing Trevor Lawrence with one of his WRs, Sermon might make sense as you're hoping both the game shoots out with points on both sides.

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Dontayvion Wicks at LAR ($5,000)

Similar to what I said about Jayden Reed, this a prime opportunity for Wicks with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs sidelined. Wicks is quite a bit cheaper than Reed, however, and he's already proved capable of excelling in a larger role. He's coming off five catches for 78 yards and two scores while showing the big-play ability that makes him look more like a No. 1 WR than a so-called No. 4. 

Honorable Mentions: Jordan Whittington ($4,600); RB D'Andre Swift ($5,700)

The Bargain Bin

QB Geno Smith vs. NYG ($5,900)

QB Trevor Lawrence vs. IND ($5,700)

QB Joe Flacco at JAX ($5,500)

QB Matthew Stafford vs. GB ($5,500)

QB Deshaun Watson at WAS ($5,300)

QB Daniel Jones at SEA ($5,200)

QB Bo Nix vs. LV ($5,000)

RB Jerome Ford at WAS ($5,800)

RB D'Andre Swift vs. CAR ($5,700)

RB Trey Sermon at JAX ($5,700)

RB Javonte Williams vs. LV ($5,200)

RB Alexander Mattison at DEN ($5,200)

RB Antonio Gibson vs. MIA ($5,100)

RB Tyrone Tracy at SEA ($4,300)

WR Tutu Atwell vs. GB ($4,900)

WR Keon Coleman at HOU ($4,700)

WR Jordan Whittington vs. GB ($4,600)

WR Curtis Samuel at HOU ($4,200)

WR Tre Tucker at DEN ($4,100)

WR Darius Slayton at SEA ($3,900)

WR Mack Hollins at HOU ($3,100)

TE Colby Parkinson vs. GB ($3,700)

TE Tucker Kraft at LAR ($3,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• QB Anthony Richardson at JAX 

As of Friday, this is the most important piece of news on the slate. From a fantasy perspective, the viability of Michael Pittman and Josh Downs depends on whether or not Joe Flacco starts. If it ends up being Richardson, I wouldn't have nearly as much interest in the Colts pass-catchers. 

Weather

• Possible scattered storms in Jacksonville. Too early to know anything definitive on Friday.