DraftKings NFL: Week 16 DFS Tournament Guide

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

We're discussing the main DFS slate Sunday afternoon, consisting of the 10 games that start between 1:00 ET and 4:25 ET. The Week 16 schedule is strange even by 2020 standards, with one game played Friday and three more on Saturday, in addition to the usual SNF and MNF slots.

Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones all play in primetime, leaving us with a Sunday slate where Nick Chubb ($7,800) and David Montgomery ($7,700) are the most expensive running backs. There are still premium options available at the other positions, as Seattle and Kansas City both have afternoon games.

As always, I'm happy to discuss strategy in the comments below, or on twitter (@JerryDonabedian).

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1:00, 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the vast majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

(Bold for over/unders of 50+ and implied totals of 26+)

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their DK salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our tourney lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few "chalk" picks. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Darrell Henderson at SEA ($4,500)

The matchup may not be ideal, but it isn't bad enough to cancel out the value in paying only $4,500 for the primary ballcarrier in Sean McVay's offense. The Rams lead the NFL in rush-offense DVOA (10.0%), churning out the ninth-most yards per game (127.9) despite getting next to nothing from their quarterback. Malcolm Brown ($4,000) does figure to steal some work — especially targets — but Henderson nonetheless has 20-carry upside with Cam Akers (ankle) out of the picture. FWIW, the Rams' backfield trio combined for a 23-99-3 rushing line in the Week 10 win over Seattle.

• WR Jamison Crowder vs. CLE ($4,500)

Crowder has mostly been disappointing since Sam Darnold returned for Week 12, but the slot man is still the clear No. 1 option, as evidenced by his 27 percent target share the past four weeks. He's at 26 percent in his 10 appearances this season, and he still has a healthy average of 14.1 PPR points across the 19 games both he and Darnold have played the past two years. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Patrick Mahomes vs. ATL ($8,500)

QB Mitchell Trubisky at JAX ($5,700)

RB David Montgomery at JAX ($7,700)

RB Austin Ekeler vs. DEN ($7,600)

WR Tyreek Hill vs. ATL ($9,000)

WR Terry McLaurin vs. CAR ($6,700)

WR Amari Cooper vs. PHI ($5,700)

WR Michael Gallup vs. PHI ($4,100)

TE Travis Kelce vs. ATL ($8,500)

TE Dallas Goedert at DAL ($3,600)

D/ST Baltimore Ravens vs. NYG ($4,000)

D/ST Washington Football Team vs. CAR ($3,000)

D/ST Houston Texans vs. CIN ($2,800)

D/ST Dallas Cowboys vs. PHI ($2,400)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the contest, hoping to take advantage of a tight game where both teams are still chucking the ball around late in the fourth quarter. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.

Falcons (21.75) at Chiefs (32.25)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Falcons - 3rd (25.91),  Chiefs - 13th (27.1)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Falcons - 5th (29.0),  Chiefs - 8th (29.6)

The Chiefs have a league-high 69 percent pass-play rate in the first half of games, five percentage points ahead of the third-place Falcons (64 percent). Kansas City tends to lean on its running backs more after halftime, but there's no question both of these teams are very familiar with pass-heavy gameplans.

Falcons

Matt Ryan ($5,800) broke out of an ugly slump last week, but he still has a less-than-stellar track record when Julio Jones (hamstring) doesn't play, averaging 18.4 PPR points in the eight games Jones has missed over the past five years (compared to 22.4 ppg with Jones active).

Ryan comes with risk in an outdoor, road game against a respectable pass defense, but we at least have a pretty good idea where his passes will go, with Calvin Ridley ($8,500) averaging 12.0 targets the past three weeks, and Russell Gage ($5,100) seeing 8.3. Either wideout works as the bring-it-back for a Chiefs stack, though it isn't a necessary competent of a lineup, as Patrick Mahomes turned in some of his best fantasy performances during blowouts rather than shootouts.

In terms of per-play efficiency, it's run defense that remains the weakness for Kansas City, allowing 4.6 YPC (26th) and 123.5 yards per game (21st). The Atlanta backfield is a three-headed mess right now, but Ito Smith ($4,000) is cheap enough to justify some interest after he led the team in carries both of the past two weeks.

Chiefs

We all know the deal here, with betting odds putting Kansas City nearly four points ahead of any other team on the main slate. Patrick Mahomes ($8,500), Tyreek Hill ($9,000) and Travis Kelce ($8,500) won't come cheap, but they're well worth the price if you're confident in discount options elsewhere. 

It isn't too difficult to make a lineup that uses each of the Big 3, but we also have the option of subbing out Hill or Kelce for one of Le'Veon Bell ($5,800), Sammy Watkins ($5,000) or Mecole Hardman. It'll likely be Bell generating the most interest this week, stepping in as the lead runner while Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) is unavailable.

Just remember that the Chiefs love to throw the ball even when they have a healthy backfield, and Andy Reid still seems to prefer Darrel Williams over his other backs for the obvious passing situations. That's not to say Bell is a bad play, but he's not a slam-dunk, best-value-of-the-week type play either.

Hardman had nine targets and a touchdown last week, but his role wasn't really any different from usual in terms of snap/route usage, so I'm only interested within the context of a Mahomes stack.

• Best Stack: QB Mahomes + RB Smith + WR Hill + WR Gage + TE Kelce

Bears (27.25) at Jaguars (19.75)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Bears - 15th (27.2),  Jaguars - 6th (26.1)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Bears - 26th (31.5),  Jaguars - 24th (31.3)

Both teams prefer to play at a slow pace, but they haven't typically been in positions to dictate tempo, often playing from behind. That's especially true for the 1-13 Jaguars, of course.

Bears

For all his shortcomings, Mitchell Trubisky ($5,700) isn't a terrible fantasy quarterback, as he's willing to take some risks and can supplement his subpar passing with rushing stats. He's topped 20 DK points in three of seven starts this year, averaging 18.2. Nothing special, but it's not terrible, and this week he's facing Jacksonville.

A red-hot David Montgomery ($7,700) figures to attract plenty of attention, and he gets enough work in the passing game to justify using him in a Trubisky stack. Figuring out the rest of it is more difficult, as Allen Robinson ($7,700) is questionable with a hamstring injury. An absence for Robinson would hurt Trubisky's outlook, but it would also give us some nice value on Darnell Mooney ($4,000), Anthony Miller ($3,200) and Cole Kmet ($3,000). 

Just be careful with Miller, as it might actually be Javon Wims ($3,000) who takes on most of Robinson's vacated perimeter snaps. It may all be a moot point if Robinson is fine, so we'll need to keep an eye on the situation.

Jags

I'm not to keen on using Gardner Minshew ($5,200) against a good defense, but DJ Chark ($4,800), Keelan Cole ($3,500) and Laviska Shenault ($3,700) are all cheap, reasonable options to attach to a Trubisky stack. The rookie scored 9.4 or more DK points each of the past three weeks, and he gets one or two carries per week on top of the handful or so of targets.

• Best Stack: QB Trubisky + RB Montgomery + WR Mooney + WR Shenault

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Lamar Jackson + TE Mark Andrews

QB Deshaun Watson + RB Giovani Bernard + WR Brandin Cooks

QB Baker Mayfield + WR Jarvis Landry + WR Rashard Higgins + WR Jamison Crowder

QB Andy Dalton + RB Miles Sanders + WR Amari Cooper + WR Michael Gallup

QB Teddy Bridgewater + WR DJ Moore + WR Terry McLaurin + WR Curtis Samuel

RB-Defense Pairing

We can pair a running back with his team's defense to double our bet on favorable game script in certain matchups. Just keep in mind that the scoring correlations aren't nearly as strong as those between quarterbacks and pass catchers, so it isn't worth forcing into a lineup unless the prices for each individual commodity make sense. We also need to account for specialized backfield roles, e.g., using Jonathan Taylor rather than Nyheim Hines with the Colts defense.

• RB Chris Carson ($6,400) + Seahawks D/ST ($2,600) vs. LAR

The Rams aren't a team we'd typically target with this type of stack, so really it's more about price than matchup. The Seattle defense is awfully cheap for a unit that's scored nine or more DK points in four straight games, and Carson should also be a solid value if he approaches his 70 percent snap share from last week's win over Washington.

Honorable Mention: RB Miles Sanders ($7,000) + Eagles D/ST ($2,900) at DAL

High-Priced Hero

• TE Travis Kelce vs. ATL ($8,500)

Kelce finally seems to be in the correct price range, alongside the high-end No. 1 wide receivers. It may not be as much of a steal in terms of salary relative to production/volume, but the matchup with Atlanta should allow the superstar tight end to post even better efficiency stats than he normally does. The Falcons have given up the seventh-most DK points to tight ends, yielding a league-high 78.4 percent catch rate.

Honorable Mentions: RB Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. DEN ($7,600); Miles Sanders, PHI at DAL ($7,000)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often to blame, but in some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Nick Chubb at NYJ ($7,800)

Run defense is the one thing the Jets aren't terrible at, so it's typically been opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers who have enjoyed ceiling games against Gang Green. That's not to say Chubb will have a bad week... he'll do just fine. But the matchup should push more of the offense's volume toward Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins, while Kareem Hunt figures to get most of the work in the fourth quarter even if the Jets keep the game close.

Other Fades: WR Calvin Ridley, ATL at KC ($8,500)

The SMASH Spot

Volume may be king, but we still need to account for efficiency, pinpointing situations that are likely to lead to impressive production in terms of YPA, YPC or YPT.

• RB Giovani Bernard at HOU ($4,800)

You could argue that this matchup pits the NFL's worst run defense against its worst rushing offense, with Houston giving up 150.5 yards per game and 5.0 per carry, while Cincinnati has managed just 96.6 ypg and 3.8 YPC. The hope here is that they meet somewhere in the middle, which likely would result in Bernard outperforming his modest price tag. He typically gets about two-third of Cincinnati's backfield volume, averaging 11.6 carries, 3.8 targets and 39.1 snaps in eight starts this year.

Honorable Mention: QB Mitchell Trubisky, CHI at JAX ($5,700); WR Jarvis Landry, CLE at NYJ ($6,900)

The Bargain Bin

QB Mitchell Trubisky at JAX ($5,700)

QB Andy Dalton vs. PHI ($5,500)

RB Darrell Henderson at SEA ($4,500)

RB Ito Smith at KC ($4,000)

WR Michael Gallup vs. PHI ($4,100)

WR Darnell Mooney at JAX ($4,000)

WR Laviska Shenault vs. CHI ($3,700)

TE Cole Kmet at JAX ($3,000)

TE Donald Parham vs. DEN ($2,500)

D/ST Dallas Cowboys vs. PHI ($2,400)

Injury Situations

The "Sunday Scramble" doesn't need to be stressful. We can plan our response ahead of time for various scenarios that could emerge once inactive lists are released.

•  RB Ezekiel Elliott (vs. PHI)

Tony Pollard ($6,500) played 90 percent of snaps last week and scored two touchdowns. Fire him up as the top RB play of the week if Zeke is out again.

• WR Allen Robinson at JAX

This one was discussed above in the section on stacking the Bears-Jaguars game. Darnell Mooney ($4,000) already gets a lot of deep targets, and he should see more short/intermediate passes if Robinson is out.

• WR Keenan Allen + TE Hunter Henry vs. DEN

Mike Williams ($4,500) and Austin Ekeler ($7,600) could see a boatload of targets if both Allen (hamstring) and Henry (COVID-19 list) end up missing this game. Tyron Johnson and TE Donald Parham ($2,500) would also attract some fantasy interest.

• RB Antonio Gibson vs. CAR

Can't say I love J.D. McKissic at $6,400, but he at least stays on the map for another week if Gibson (toe) is out again.

• RB James Robinson vs. CHI

As an avowed Devine Ozigbo ($4,000) fanboy, I'll be keeping close tabs on this one. It's not a great matchup, and Dare Ogunbowale likely would steal work on passing downs, but Ozigbo could get around 15 carries if Robinson (knee) doesn't play. Robinson is listed as questionable, after missing practice throughout the week.

Weather Watch

It looks like we'll go another week without a snow game... sigh. The outdoor games are all expected to be mid-30s or warmer, and there aren't any forecasts for significant rain or wind. Cold-ish weather in Kansas City and the mid-Atlantic isn't ideal for kicking long field goals, but it shouldn't be a problem for quarterbacks or receivers.

The Toilet Bowl

I'm now running a weekly DraftKings contest where the goal is to have the LOWEST point total rather than the highest.

There's no way to make a paid contest of this sort on DK, but I can promise that the winner each week will get a shoutout in the following week's tournament guide. And if anyone manages to win the contest in two different weeks this season, I'll make a $50 donation to the charity of their choice (or to their venmo account).

Congratulations to DK user spottedowl81, who just became the first repeat winner of our Toilet Bowl. The Owl got it done in Week 15 with a Saints-Chiefs stack, dropping snowflake after snowflake without taking a penalty for any zeroes. 

If you're the owl, or you know the owl, please come forward and claim your prize by DM'ing me on twitter (@JerryDonabedian) or dropping a comment below with the name of the charity you'd like the donation to be sent to.

And here's the winning lineup...

Here are the rules:

1. All lineups must use at least $49,500 of the salary cap.
2. Any player with zero points automatically adds 3x of their salary to your point total. So you can put an injured player who costs $7,500 in your lineup, but then we're adding 22.5 points to your final score. The same goes for players who aren't injured but nonetheless finish with zero points. However, negative scores are allowed — in fact, they're encouraged — free of any penalty.

OK, here's the link: https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/99415991

Good Luck!