DraftKings NFL: Week 1 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Football is back. Week 1 is finally here and we have a 13-game slate on DraftKings. Four of those games are shaping up to be popular targets. The Chiefs-Cardinals and Chargers-Raiders matchups are the only games with totals above 50. The Eagles-Lions and Packers-Vikings matchups will be relatively popular as well. As unpredictable as the NFL is, Week 1 is especially volatile as we have new coaches, new players and no previous stats to analyze. Embracing that uncertainty is the name of the game for tournaments. There are few better weeks to take chances on than this one. The large-field tournaments have historically been won with lineups where the cumulative rostership is less than 80 percent. That means only 3-4 chalky players and 3-4 who aren't very popular at all. If you have a strong take about a player not mentioned in this article or your favorite podcast, this is the time to gamble. The leverage gained by fading chalk in favor of something less popular is what vaults lineups to the top. If you're only interested in rostering the "best plays," stick to cash games. There is plenty of money to be made there as well. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Christian McCaffrey vs. CLE ($8,500)

McCaffrey projects as the top running back on the slate from both a raw points and point-per-dollar perspective. We're used to seeing him priced higher than $9K and that makes his $8,500 salary look pretty cheap for a home matchup against Jacoby Brissett and the Browns. McCaffrey's dual-threat ability makes him a dream for DFS and there is plenty of cheap value at the other positions to make affording him rather easy. In the mid-range, Saquon Barkley ($6,100) is also popping in projections. All the preseason reports have been positive and he's expected to see heavy use this season. He and McCaffrey will be a popular pairing in cash games. 

• QB Jalen Hurts at DET ($6,800)

All indications have Hurts being the popular QB in cash games, and rightly so considering his rushing upside and favorable matchup against the Lions. The Eagles actually have the third-highest implied total on the slate, which add to the fact that he's just underpriced. 

• WR Michael Pittman at HOU ($5,500)

Sticking with the theme of underpriced, Pittman is too cheap by about $1,000. The Colts are big favorites against the Texans and Pittman is the clear No. 1 target for new QB Matt Ryan. The combination of a safe floor and high ceiling makes him stand out as one of the top value plays on the slate and close to a lock for cash games. For tournaments on the other hand, him, McCaffrey, Barkley and Hurts make for great candidates to fade as they'll all be popular. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Patrick Mahomes at ARI ($7,700)

QB Lamar Jackson at NYJ ($7,300)

QB Joe Burrow vs. PIT ($6,400)

RB Joe Mixon vs. PIT ($7,100)

RB D'Andre Swift vs. PHI ($6,800)

RB Aaron Jones at MIN ($6,700)

RB Najee Harris at CIN ($6,400)

RB Saquon Barkley at TEN ($6,100)

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. PIT ($7,100)

WR Keenan Allen vs. LV ($7,000)

WR Brandin Cooks vs. IND ($6,300)

WR Tee Higgins vs. PIT ($6,100)

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster at ARI ($5,200)

WR Christian Kirk at WAS ($5,100)

TE Travis Kelce at ARI ($6,600)

TE Dallas Goedert at DET ($4,500)

TE Irv Smith vs. GB ($3,400)

D/ST Washington Commanders vs. JAX ($2,500)

D/ST Chicago Bears vs. SF ($2,200)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Kansas City Chiefs (29.5) at Arizona Cardinals (24)

Chiefs

Kansas City stands out as my top stack for multiple reasons this week. There is mismatch in the trenches as the Chiefs have one of the best offensive lines in the league while the Cardinals defensive line is among the worst. Patrick Mahomes ($7,700) should have plenty of time in the pocket to find his playmakers, who are all underpriced considering that Tyreek Hill is now a Jet. His targets will be spread around to new additions JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,200) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,700). As well as Mecole Hardman ($4,600), who had a couple big performances last season when he filled in for the injured Hill. Travis Kelce ($6,600) could see a bump in share this season, and I expect Mahomes to look for him even more often in the redone now. He's a bargain in this spot and it's possible this is the cheapest we see him all season. A more contrarian way to target the Chiefs would be rostering Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,400). The running back situation remains murky in Kansas City but Edwards-Helaire has multiple-TD upside considering the Chiefs have the slate's highest implied total. 

Cardinals 

Kyler Murray ($7,200) always has the upside to be the highest scoring quarterback, and that's especially true in matchups with shootout potential like this one. His rushing upside and usual lack of passing yards would have me pairing him with only one pass-catcher. New addition Marquise Brown ($6,200) has the most upside in the absence of DeAndre Hopkins. Brown and A.J. Green ($4,600) likely would see bumps in target share if Rondale Moore ($4,000) is inactive. If Moore plays, he projects as one of the better value options at WR with how cheap his salary is and that would make him my preferred "run-it-back" option in Chiefs stacks. The "run-it-back" option who would provide the most leverage is James Conner ($7,000). He's likely to be the least popular RB in that range and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Cardinals take an early lead with a couple scores from Conner, who had 19 last year in a resurgent season.  

• Favorite Stack: QB Mahomes + WR Smith-Schuster + WR Brown + TE Kelce

Pittsburgh Steelers (19) at Cincinnati Bengals (25)

Steelers

It's hard to get excited about rostering Pittsburgh WRs with Mitch Trubisky ($5,000) at QB but he's probably an upgrade over Roethlisberger. Still, it has me wary of spending salary Diontae Johnson ($6,000), who's been dealing with a shoulder injury. Chase Claypool ($5,000) and his big-play ability would make more sense to me but my favorite Steeler is George Pickens ($4,100). Pickens looks to be one of the steals of the draft after missing most of his final season at Georgia due to a torn ACL. You could always just avoid the WRs and run it back with Najee Harris ($6,400). Harris projects well from a point-per-dollar standpoint and we saw his pass-catching upside lead to plenty of big games last season. 

Bengals

Targeting this game is mostly about the Bengals side. Fresh off last year's Super Bowl run, I expect them to take another step forward this season. Joe Burrow ($6,400) is already an elite QB and will only get better. He's also just too cheap and should be priced in the $7K range with the other top QBs on the slate. The matchup against a usually stout Pittsburgh defense combined with the lowish 44-point total should temper ownership, and the Bengals can put up points against anyone. Ja'Marr Chase ($7,100) has a ceiling as high as any WR and it probably isn't long before his salary rises to the 8K range along with the other elites. Tee Higgins ($6,100) is also a bit underpriced. He finished last season with 100 yards and two TDs in the Super Bowl and has that type of production in his range of outcomes every week. Tyler Boyd ($4,800) is usually good for six targets, and he found the end zone six times last season. I will pair Burrow with two of these WRs; their affordable salaries make it rather easy considering that the rest of the slate is littered with value. Again, there is always a chance that the RB get the TDs instead. Joe Mixon ($7,100) projects as one of the best backs on the slate, and he had some huge games last season. He topped 25 fantasy points seven times and that's always a possibility when the Bengals are home favorites.  

• Favorite Stack: QB Burrow + WR Chase +/- WR Higgins + WR Pickens

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Rashod Bateman + TE Mark Andrews

QB Kyler Murray + WR Marquise Brown or WR A.J. Green + TE Travis Kelce

QB Justin Herbert + WR Keenan Allen and/or WR Mike Williams + TE Darren Waller

QB Jalen Hurts + RB D'Andre Swift + WR A.J. Brown and/or TE Dallas Goedert

QB Jalen Hurts + WR DJ Chark + WR A.J. Brown and/or TE Dallas Goedert

QB Kirk Cousins + RB Aaron Jones + WR Justin Jefferson +/- TE Irv Smith

QB Matt Ryan + Michael Pittman + Parris Campbell + Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins

QB Daniel Jones + RB Derrick Henry + WR Kadarius Toney and/or WR Wan'Dale Robinson

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. PIT ($7,100)

Chase is coming off a breakout season, one in which he flashed a massive ceiling as he topped 25 fantasy points on five occasions. He and star QB Joe Burrow should take another step forward this season. Both are so young and now with a Super Bowl appearance already under their belt, the sky is limit really. It's not the greatest spot in the world against a Steelers team that's usually decent against the pass, but that should temper the ownership and Chase can succeed in any matchup. 

• TE Travis Kelce at ARI ($6,600)

Kelce has everything going for him in this spot. For one, it's surprising to see him priced less than $7K, and it's possible this is the cheapest we see him all season. Two, now that Tyreek Hill is out of the picture, Kelce is the clear No. 1 option and should see a bump in target share. And three, Patrick Mahomes should operate from a clean pocket, behind a good offensive line against a weak Cardinals defense. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Justin Jefferson, MIN vs. GB ($7,800); RB Derrick Henry, TEN vs. NYG ($8,600)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Jonathan Taylor at HOU ($9,100)

Fading Taylor has nothing to do with him as a player. I expect him to have another big season, and he has good chance to have a big game on Sunday with Colts sizable favorites against the Texans. The decision to fade is more about him being the most expensive player on the slate and other running backs, who will be less popular than Taylor, that I'd rather take a chance on. I can see the Colts winning comfortably and not needing to give Taylor 25-plus touches. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster at ARI ($5,300)

All the reasons that I like Travis Kelce this week apply to Smith-Schuster. He's cheap, the matchup is good and he's expected to fill the void left by Tyreek Hill. Obviously, Smith-Schuster isn't Hill but he's a physically imposing, possession WR who's great around the goal line. If healthy, he should have 10-catch upside anytime the Chiefs are in a favorable spot.  

Honorable Mentions: RB Elijah Mitchell, SF at CHI ($5,400); WR Rashod Bateman, BAL at NYJ ($5,300)

The Bargain Bin

QB Derek Carr at LAC ($5,900)

QB Matt Ryan at HOU ($5,500)

QB Jameis Winston at ATL ($5,300)

QB Marcus Mariota vs. NO ($5,200)

QB Daniel Jones at TEN ($5,000)

RB Antonio Gibson vs. JAX ($5,800)

RB Travis Etienne at WAS ($5,600)

RB Miles Sanders at DET ($5,400)

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire at ARI ($5,400)

RB Elijah Mitchell at CHI ($5,400)

RB AJ Dillon at MIN ($5,300)

RB Dameon Pierce vs. IND ($4,800)

WR Tyler Boyd vs. PIT ($4,800)

WR DJ Chark vs. PHI ($4,800)

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling at ARI ($4,700)

WR Mecole Hardman at ARI ($4,600)

WR Chris Olave at ATL ($4,500)

WR George Pickens at CIN ($4,100)

WR Kadarius Toney at TEN ($4,100)

WR Jahan Dotson vs. JAX (3,400)

WR Parris Campbell at HOU ($3,300)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson at TEN ($3,000)

Injuries to Monitor 

• WR Allen Lazard at MIN ($5,600)

Lazard didn't practice Friday and is doubtful with an ankle injury. As the de facto No. 1 WR for the Packers, his absence would provide opportunities for the likes of Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb and Romeo Doubs. I'd have most interest in the two rookies, especially Doubs considering his minimum salary. 

• WR Rondale Moore vs. KC ($4,000)

Moore was expected to be a popular value option this week, but it seems likely that he's going to miss out with a hamstring injury. That would mean bumps for Marquise Brown and A.J. Green. I'd be happy to roster either of them in Chiefs stacks, in that case. 

• TE George Kittle at CHI ($5,900)

Kittle's absence would open the door for Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to see more targets. It would make rostering them more palatable considering the game has the lowest total on the slate. If Kittle ends up playing, I'll just fade them all. 

Weather

Nothing to worry about this week.