This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
Week 5 of the NFL season is upon us. This week only has one game with an over/under of 50 points. Not too surprising since there isn't necessarily two high-octane offenses going against one another. Even though we don't have any monster totals this week, we do have great options. I have had most the week to take in the games, the data and the line movements. I will try and steer you in the right direction in terms of game selection. Remember it's all about exposing weaknesses, and since we are five weeks in, those weaknesses are no becoming easier to identify.
New York Jets Vs. San Diego Chargers (-6.5) (43.5 O/U)
Don't let the total fool you. I still expect a lot of fantasy points in this game, specifically from the Chargers side. As you may know by now, I love picking on the Jets secondary. The Jets allow the fourth most points to quarterbacks and third most points to wide receivers. Given the way Philip Rivers has played this season, he is clearly on my radar, especially for cash games on DraftKings. On the Jets side, there isn't much to get excited about, but there is one player on my radar, whom I will touch on in my suggestions.
Players To Consider
Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego – As mentioned in the blurb, Rivers is a very intriguing option for DraftKings cash games. He has been an elite option this season and faces a Jets secondary that has struggled against quarterbacks. Plus, this is a home game, which gives Rivers a bump in value.
Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego – Allen finally broke out last week against the Jaguars. He had looked like a bust through the first three games, but chalk up those poor outings to facing off against some tough secondaries, which has actually made him a great buy-low option. He will cause problems for the Jets' secondary this weekend, and he's still priced quite low across the industry.
Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets – Ivory is priced at $3,100 on DraftKings, which should lead to serious consideration for your flex play. Ivory had 17 carries last week against the Lions and seems to have gained the lion's share (no pun intended) of the workload. At $3,100, he creates major cap relief for your squad and has immense upside.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. New Orleans Saints (-10) (48.5 O/U)
The Saints are coming back home after an embarrassing road effort against the Cowboys last Sunday on national television. Historically, the Saints have performed better at home, and I expect a bounce-back performance this weekend. There's plenty of DFS buzz surrounding this game, as it has a considerably high total relative for the week, it features some of the best players in the league, and there are some good value plays. The public is betting heavy on the Saints and the over, which is really hard to fade. I do not like fading teams that are supposed to be elite at home, especially when they are in desperation mode.
Players To Consider
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans – Cooks' price has come down across the industry after a mediocre game against Dallas last week. Given his skill level and reduced salary, Cooks is hard to pass up this week. He is averaging 7.5 targets per game and faces a defense that gives up the most points to wide receivers.
Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay - With Mike Evans (groin) out, I expect Jackson's targets to increase this week. Jackson and Glennon have shown decent chemistry together and should be able to expose the Saints secondary, who give up the fifth most points to wide receivers.
Mike Glennon, QB, Tampa Bay – Glennon deserves some consideration for tournaments. He is priced close to the minimum across the industry, and the Saints have given up the sixth most points to quarterbacks this season.
Cincinnati Bengals (-1) Vs. New England Patriots (46 O/U)
Oddly, the Patriots were originally favored in this contest, but the odds changed during the Monday night game, as the sportsbooks were flooded with money on the Bengals. A lot of "sharp" players are on New England to cover, but personally I have no interest in this game's spread. What does interest me is the total. If you have watched any of the Patriots games this season you know their offense is terrible. I could make an argument that they looked worse against the Raiders than they did against the Chiefs. So what happens when a terrible offense plays a good defense? In all likelihood, the Patriots will have another embarrassing offensive showing. On the flip side, I do think the Patriots defense is still competent and should put up a fight. I am leaning towards the under here, but all these prime-time games have flown over so far, which scares me a bit.
Players To Consider
Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati – Probably one of my favorite running backs to watch. He is effective in the running and passing game. I love him for cash games, especially with his pricing on DraftKings. He has a very high floor and will be a fixture in my lineups this weekend.
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati – This guy simply gets no love. He is as consistent as they come and is still overlooked by fantasy players. He has elite offensive weapons at his disposal and usually priced in the bottom-tier of quarterbacks. While I think the Patriots defense is competent, there is no reason Dalton can't put up a respectable amount of points this weekend.
Cincinnati, D/ST - I do not expect Tom Brady to make a lot of mistakes, but since losing Logan Mankins, the Patriots quarterback hasn't been as good. If you are going to be paying for a D/ST, the Bengals should be considered. They are solid across the board and face a declining offense.
Other Players To Consider
Andrew Hawkins, WR, Cleveland – Hawkins is priced close to minimum on both the top sites, and he has been targeted over 10 times in each of his three games. He should be considered for your WR3/Flex spots.
Garrett Graham, TE, Houston – Yes, I am suggesting a different Graham at tight end this week. Graham draws a great matchup against a Cowboys team that has given up the most points to tight ends this season.
Russell Wilson, QB, Washington – Wilson takes on the Redskins on Monday night. Wilson loves his prime-time games, and I expect him to have a great outing against the Redskins. The Redskins defense has allowed the fifth most points to quarterbacks this season and it keeps getting worse every week.
