This article is part of our DFS Football 101 series.
College Fantasy Football is like fantasy football on steroids because there is just so much offense and so many players to pick from. It can be overwhelming at first for someone used to just NFL, but once you get a taste of it, you won't be disappointed. Being informed is the most important part of cashing in your contests. Here are some of the top things you need to know and tools you can use to start winning on DraftKings.
Projecting Team Totals
Look at the Vegas lines each week and start to find the teams who are projected to score the most points.
This week's projected team totals (Early slate)
Baylor 44
UCLA, Marshall, USC 40
Ohio State 39
Cincinnati 37
Michigan State, West Virginia, Alabama 36
Texas Tech, TCU 35
California 34
Oklahoma 33
UCF, Louisville 32
Georgia, Minnesota 30
Maryland, Arkansas 28
You get these numbers by looking at a game. Let's go with Baylor/West Virginia. The total posted in the game is now 80 with Baylor -7. Divide the total by two (40) and cut the spread in half (3.5), then add both numbers to get Baylor's projected total of 43.5 (I usually round up). Then subtract 44 from the total of 80 points to get West Virginia's total of 36, making 44-36 the projected total for the game. I usually look for teams with a projected total of 28 or higher and line of -28 or less. The one exception is I'm not afraid to take smaller schools that are favorites of 28 or higher.
Smaller schools do not pull their starters because they need to score as many points as possible to keep a higher ranking. Bigger schools are more apt to pull their starters when they have a huge lead. Bigger schools make more money and thus have more invested in the health of their starters, and smaller schools have reason to play starters longer because their schedules are too weak to earn reliable top-25 consideration without an eye-popping margin of victory.
Offense/Defense Ranks (Run/Pass)
Now that we have our targeted teams based on projected point totals, let's look at the teams who have the biggest edge for offense/defense based on yardage ranks. After seven weeks, we have enough of a sample size now to trust this year's data, but earlier in the season I would use Phil Steele's team rankings or go based off 2013. You want to seek out teams that have a significant edge in the passing or running game along with a higher percent of that offense coming from one of the two sides. It's all about exploiting a matchup.
Passing (Quarterback/Wide Receiver/Tight End targets)
Cincinnati #11 vs. SMU #124 +113 (Cincinnati 77 percent pass)
UCLA #29 vs. California #128 +99 (UCLA 57 percent pass)
California #4 vs. UCLA #100 +96 (Cal 73 percent pass)
TCU #12 vs. Oklahoma State #105 +93 (TCU 63 percent pass)
Ohio State #35 vs. Rutgers #101 +66 (Ohio State 51 percent pass)
Rushing (Running Back/Rushing Quarterback Targets)
Baylor #17 vs. West Virginia #86 +69 (Baylor 41 percent run)
Alabama #32 vs. Texas A&M #82 +50 (Alabama 43 percent run)
Marshall #10 vs. FIU #53 +43 (Marshall 50 percent run)
Minnesota #30 vs. Purdue #71 +41 (Minnesota 66 percent run)
Michigan State #18 vs. Indiana #52 +34 (Michigan State 50 percent run)
Percent of Run vs. Pass
I want to see my players on teams with a projected total of at least 28 points, and I want that player to be high-usage part of a consistently scoring passing/rushing/receiving game from that team. It's obviously ideal if you can put together a team of players whose team touchdown percentages line up with a projected score that implies a probable touchdown.
Quarterback is King
You need to start two quarterbacks and you want to look for the ones in the highest projected scoring games, but you also want to target an elite passer (400 yards a game potential) or a quarterback who runs a lot. Do not skimp on spending at the quarterback position, as they are the one who score the most on a week-to-week basis.
Find Value at Running Back
You can always find value at the running back position due to injury, suspension, or matchup. Almost every week there are solid running back plays in the $4000-$6500 range. Some examples this week are: Nick Chubb, T.J. Yeldon, William Stanbeck, Shock Linwood. Look for teams that rely heavily on the run, or find a running back that is guaranteed 20 carries.
Pair your Wide Receivers and Quarterbacks
There is strong data that shows how much a quarterback's success correlates with the wide receiver, so you want to try and find at least one or two of them that match up. If you have a running quarterback, then look elsewhere. For example, you would definitely want to find a Cincinnati wide receiver to pair with Gunner Kiel this week.
Skimp on Tight End
Because so many college football teams run the spread offense and three wide receiver sets, the tight end position is a lost art. There are some elite tight ends, but it just does not make sense to pay up. Look for someone who gets a few receptions each week in a high scoring game so that a touchdown is a high probability.
Rotowire Tools
This is where you need to look for all your injury and starting players news. Critical when looking for value plays.
On the right-hand side, you can see all the players listed who are "out", "questionable", "doubtful", "probable" or "suspended".
Check out the waiver wire watch piece to see who might be your value plays of the week.
Who is up, who is down for the week.
Each week, Mario Puig gives you value plays on DraftKings.
DraftKings College Football Lineup Optimizer
The Lineup optimizer is a great tool to build a lineup and see which players are the best values along with top projected players. You can select from any teams on the right hand side depending on the game set, etc. If you want to remove teams from low scoring games you can. It's a useful tool to get a feel for how a lineup should be constructed. Note, we do not offer "projections" for college football, just a ranking. You can also add in players to lock them in for the optimizer. So let's say you like Gunner Kiel as one of my quarterbacks, just click on the lock icon to the left of his name and hit "Refresh your Optimal Lineup Now"
DraftKings College Football Lineup Optimizer Week 8
Sample Lineup (Early Slate)
QB-J.T. Barrett, Ohio State - $7700
QB-Cody Kessler, USC - $5700
RB-William Stanbeck, UCF - $4800
RB-Nick Chubb, UGA - $4600
WR-Sterling Shepard, OKL - $6700
WR-Jordan Payton, UCLA - $5900
WR-Tyler Lockett, Kansas State - $5900
TE-Cam Serigne, Wake Forest - $3700
FLEX-T.J. Yeldon, Alabama - $4400
DraftKings Roster Format: QB, QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, FLEX
Scoring Notables (1 point per PPR, +3 points for 300 yards passing, 100 yards rushing/receiving)
One of the biggest reasons you should be playing college fantasy football on DraftKings is you can build your bankroll for NFL and take a shot at their Millionaire Maker contest which is just $27 to enter. They also run satellite contests in the $2-$5 range so you can qualify on Saturday for the big Sunday contest.
