This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions for Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
A game highly anticipated since the schedule was released this spring finally unfolds at AT&T Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
The Lions have largely lived up to expectations as an elite NFC contender, and come in off a bye. Meanwhile, despite two consecutive victories, the Cowboys have disappointed in terms of their offensive firepower, and enter as home underdogs in this spot as a result.
Let's examine top bets and a game prediction for Sunday's Lions-Cowboys showdown.
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Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds for Week 6
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Lions -165 (BetMGM)/ Cowboys +148 (FanDuel)
Point spread: Lions -3 (-115 BetMGM)/ Cowboys +3.5 (-120 ESPN BET)
Totals: Under 52.5 points (Fanatics)/ Over 52.5 points (ESPN BET)
The spread for this game hasn't seen much movement over the last week-plus, not necessarily surprising considering that nothing has changed with the Lions in off a Week 5 bye. Detroit was a -3 favorite in the middle of last week, and that figure has continued to bounce between 3 and 3.5 post-Week 5 following a last-minute Cowboys win over the Steelers on Sunday night.
The total has also bounced within a very tight range. It has remained between 52 and 52.5 at most sportsbooks for well over a week, despite the Cowboys underperforming on offense and only scoring a combined 40 points in the last two games. However, the Lions put up 42 the last time they were on the field and project as well-rested against a Dallas defense still without Micah Parsons (ankle) and DeMarcus Lawrence (IR-foot).
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Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Betting Picks This Week
As already alluded to, the Lions have mostly lived up to their end of the bargain in terms of preseason prognostications, although they had a tougher time putting away teams than anticipated. In fact, Detroit has mostly started as a Motor City version of the old "Cardiac Kids" Browns teams. All but their latest win against the Seahawks in Week 4 came by single digits and their one loss qualified for that distinction as well.
Jared Goff comes off a literally perfect performance against Seattle where the ball never hit the ground on his 18 pass attempts. The entire effort was a textbook performance in offensive wizardry, as Goff's work through the air was complemented by 116 rushing yards from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions' run defense has also remained a strength this season. Even though Detroit allowed 80 rushing yards to Kenneth Walker on just 12 carries in that game, 28 of those came on one run. The Lions still concede the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game overall, and the second fewest in the NFC (90.8).
The ability for Detroit to make teams one-dimensional presents a particularly daunting problem for Dallas. The Cowboys already check in at an NFC-low 82.0 rushing yards per game, including a meager 59.5 per contest in its two home games thus far. The combination of the opponent's ability to make life difficult on opposing ground attacks and the Cowboys' inconsistency in that area likely leads to a second straight busy game for Dak Prescott. The QB put up the second-most pass attempts of any game this season (42) in the Week 5 win over the Steelers. Moreover, Detroit already faces the third-most pass attempts per contest (39.5).
The Lions also have the second-highest implied team total (27.75) on the slate as of Friday night, and that number has risen two points since the open. The Cowboys aren't far behind, sporting a 24.75 figure, also the byproduct of a two-point bump. Simply put, there are no shortages of offensive expectations for a game that features a well-rested and healthy Lions offense against an injury-hampered Cowboys defense. Further, the Dallas passing attack looks to get CeeDee Lamb his first 100-yard game of the campaign, and already sees plenty of encouraging signs from emerging (now) No. 2 wideout Jalen Tolbert and tight end Jake Ferguson.
Consequently, I'm in the camp of the Over on the total, Prescott's pass attempts, and a very manageable yardage total for Lamb in a game I expect to remain tight throughout.
Lions @ Cowboys Best Bets:
- Over 52.5 points (-108 on BetRivers Sportsbook)
- Dak Prescott Over 38.5 pass attempts (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- CeeDee Lamb Over 81.5 receiving yards (-120 on Fliff Sportsbook)
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Lions @ Cowboys Prediction
Lions 29, Cowboys 27
Despite Dallas' lackluster body of work on offense this season, I expect that we get a signature performance from Prescott and company. As already covered, the Lions can undoubtedly shut down the run at an above-average level, but their pass defense remains beatable by an elite talent like Lamb and emerging pieces like Tolbert and Ferguson. Thus a high-scoring battle should ensue, but one where I think the well-rested Lions escape with the thinnest of victories.
