Circa Millions NFL Week 7 Bets

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Picks for Circa Millions, Week 7

Hey team, good to see you again. Apologies for the absence last weekend. But the good news is that daddy's home. Ramping up a big Week 7 slate for my birthday weekend. The big 3-1 has me thinking. I need to dish out some winners for you guys. 

For my birthday month, I'm blessing you with 31% off when you sign up for a monthly subscription. Offer ends 10/31.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) | Total: 47.5

For anybody who thinks the NFL cares about its fans, we can put that fallacy to rest. A Super Bowl rematch in the 4pm window while the Jets-Steelers are on Sunday Night Football? What idiot decided this was the way to go? Nevertheless, this is the true game of the week. A case for both of these interconference titans in this matchup.

5-0 KC is coming off of its bye week, a spot where HC Andy Reid has been uber-successful in his career. Reid was 13-1 in his time with the Eagles, and is 8-3 with the Chiefs. Most would agree that KC has looked far from impressive this season despite the undefeated mark. The offense is middle of the pack in scoring with 23.6 PPG and outside the top 10 in yards per game (354.6 - 11th). It's not bad, but we're so used to seeing them flat out dominate. For example, Patrick Mahomes is 17th in pass yards and 19th in TDs with the second most picks. The Chiefs are realistically three plays away from being 2-3 at best. With that being said, this is when people doubt them, and they find a way to keep on winning.

Facing SF is obviously a challenge, but there is a weak spot. The pass defense of the Niners is middle of the road at best right now allowing 215 YPG this season, as well as allowing over 330 yards to Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Additionally, Kareem Hunt coming back into the fold could be huge for this offense. Hunt pounded the rock against NOLA a couple of weeks ago for over 100 yards giving his team a real offensive identity. Although the 49ers run defense ranks as one of the best right now, it's still the same unit that allowed the Chiefs to prance for 130 yards in the Big Game with QB1 accounting for 66 of them. 

The 49ers being 3-3 right now is a bit surprising. They lost at Minnesota again. Dropped a game in LA where they should have won, but folded. And also collapsed against Arizona where they had a late double-digit lead. It's a little strange, but this is where we are. Brock Purdy though, has played pretty well to this point with his 1,629 pass yards (2nd most) and 9 TD/4 INT ratio. He'll be tasked with trying to score against a KC defense that's allowed just 17 PPG this year (6th best). The stable of weapons including Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk etc. is clearly a huge reason why this offense is so dangerous, so moving the rock through the air against a bottom half pass defense will be the difference.

Mahomes off a bye as a dog is all the reason I need to take the Chiefs in this one. As a dog, Mahomes is 10-3 in his career. It's almost as alluring as the fire reference my dear editor, John McKechnie throughout today. 

I don't think San Fran is right, there's some issues they still have to fix. KC just somehow usually finds a way.

Pick: KC ML +108 FD

Circa Millions Week 7 Picks

Obviously, I did not do my article last week. Silly me. However, my Millions picks went 4-1. Not too bad. With three weeks left in the second quarter, I'll need a big finish to have a shot at placing in the top 10.

Pick 1: KC +1.5

See above.

Pick 2: Bills -9.5

Didn't get the closing line value here as this is now down to 8.5. Will Levis will be out, Mason Rudolph in for the Titans. Rudolph is better for this offense, but how much better? Buffalo has a lot of flaws in my humble opinion, but the one thing they do is beat the bad teams. Tennessee has only scored over 20 points once, which was against Miami. 

Buffalo's defense should harass this offense, which should have a tough time getting to that 20-point mark. Once the floodgates open and the Bills start racking up the points, I don't see the opposition keeping it within range. Bills should win big.

Pick 3: Bengals -5.5

This line has held steady all week. Typically Cincy has had a lot of trouble with this Browns team lately. Since the start of 2020, they're only 2-6 in this spot. However, I am of the belief that this Bengals team is about to go on a ferocious run that will launch Joe Burrow into the MVP conversation. By the way he is 22/1, so the time to buy is now.

 I am also of the belief that Cleveland is so over this Deshaun Watson situation with the $230 million dollar guaranteed man operating as literally the worst QB in football. Even with Nick Chubb returning, I don't know if the Browns can mentally get up anymore with Watson as their leader. 

Pick 4: Vikings -1.5

This is the most difficult decision of my week. On one hand, the Lions are my Super Bowl pick that is better than any NFC team. On the other hand, I have gotten smoked on betting against Minny this season, even though I really don't think they're thaaat good. 

The Vikings have a good spot here. At home, off a bye against a Detroit team that just lost their best defensive player. Not to mention, I think the Lions may have used a lot of bullets last week in the spanking of the Cowboys. Taking a shot here.

Pick 5: Ravens -3.5

You know the Royal Mint is my famously coined spot. But my next favorite number to bet is the favorites of exactly -3.5 points. Off memory, I think the only time this has lost this season was Week 1 Miami against the Jags. It's been wildly successful. That aside, the Ravens are rolling right now, winning four straight. 

The offense has been humming, scoring 28+ in each of those games. Matchup-wise, Tampa's defense has been cooked this year, so it's difficult to envision how they're stopping the Lamar/King Henry combo. It should be a shootout, but Lamar likely improves to 23-1 against NFC foes.

Best of luck this weekend.