This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week was a complete disaster, so I do apologize. One of the frustrating things about betting the NFL in particular is the zig vs. zag nature. One week it's almost all favorites coming home. The next you're getting a buffet of dog-ridden fleas running around. That's what makes it one of the most difficult sports to bet though. The important thing is how you learn from it and turn the page the following week. And that's exactly what's happening in Week 11, so let's rip.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) | Total: 47.5
It wasn't that long ago since these two teams we're viewed as the elite of the AFC, even the NFL. Most figured, myself included, one of them would have won a Super Bowl at some point in the last four seasons, but somehow they always seem to disappoint and mess (kinder word than I want to use) it up. With both teams virtually 10 lengths behind in their respective divisional races, any playoff berths would need to be via the Wild Card. While theoretically both could get in, with a showdown like this, the tie breaker means A LOT.
Cincy was my Super Bowl pick last season. As you know, it was not to be after Joe Burrow went down. This year was supposed to be different. Burrow was coming back, Ja'Marr Chase was playing for a huge pay day, Tee Higgins is doing the same as he probably goes to a new team in 2025, the running game had some new pieces, and the defense was supposed to be better. Oh, that damn defense. The one that's allowing 26.2 PPG (seventh most), compared to last year's 22.6 (12th most).
The Bengals defense was never really THAT good, but it was absolutely serviceable especially when you have an offense like they do. DC Lou Anarumo was likely going to be up for Head Coaching interviews after this season if his unit performed better, but it's probably setting him back a few years. Though Cincy's offense has been great overall with an MVP like season for Burrow and OPOY campaign for Chase, the other side of the ball is destroying them. In games against teams with winning records, the Bengals have allowed 26 points to KC (lost 26-25), 38 points to Washington (lost 38-33), 41 points to Baltimore (lost 41-38), 37 points to Philly (lost 37-17), and 35 points to Baltimore (lost 35-34). If they want to right the ship for a furious second half comeback, they'll need to show some resolve against winning teams where they're 0-5.
The Chargers were a team I've rooted for a little more than casually for the last two decades. Not a die hard like I was with the Falcons, but definitely a team I wanted to see succeed with Drew Brees, LT, Phillip Rivers, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen etc. To no avail, LAC was as disgraceful as they were talented under that hack of a HC Brandon Staley. After pumping in new blood with former 49ers and Michigan stalwart HC, Jim Harbaugh, this Chargers team has done a total 180.
The 6-3 Bolts have taken on a new identity as a run first team behind a resurging JK Dobbins fresh off a trio of injuries from his days in Baltimore. Dobby's 670 yards, 4.8 YPC, and 6 scores have him trending to compile over 1,200 yards and a 11 tudders. Meanwhile Justin Herbert has taken on a new approach to the game with a lot less volume, while being hyper efficient. Remember those clunky high volume passing games from Herbie under the old regime where he'd rip the rock 40-50 times in half of the team's contests? While it was a blast seeing him rack up 5,000 yards and close to 40 TDs, this is arguably the best version of him we've ever seen as a true QB in the NFL. His 241 pass attempts ranks only 21st in the NFL along with his 1,889 yards, but his 11/1 TD to INT ratio is currently one of the best.
Like Cincy though, LAC's problem is they haven't beaten anybody. The best team the Bolts have taken down is the 5-5 Denver Broncos. It's fair to say the Chargers stingiest scoring defense at 13.1 PPG could be a little inflated. They'll have their work cut out for them as they'll see the sixth best scoring offense at 27 PPG.
The truth is the 1.5 point spread seems to be right on. I'm going with the Bengals strictly because there is no tomorrow for them. If they lose this game and drop to 4-7, it's going to be extremely difficult to wrestle away a Wild Card berth. The Cincy offense should be able to move the ball and find pay dirt a few times in this tight battle.
Pick: Bengals ML +110 FD
Circa Millions Week 11
My Week 10 slate was a total disaster at 0-5. I'm actually embarrassed how bad it was a week ago. Because of one bad week, I'm cooked at any shot of grabbing the 150K 1st place quarter prize. It's basically like rooting for a team that starts 0-7 in the regular season. You know you're toast at making the playoffs, but you still show up for the games on Sunday anyway. Remember these are contest lines.
Pick 1 : Bengals +2
See Above.
Pick 2: Chiefs +2.5
I have a lot of exposure in Josh Allen MVP bets this year. Given the nature of that award, it's imperative the Bills are a one or two seed in the AFC this season. A win by Buffalo would mean a lot for his bid, while keeping the Ravens at bay. While I'm rooting for the Bills, it's almost impossible for me to not take Mahomes and KC as a dog. I mean 12-1 ATS in his career? That's crazy.
Pick 3: 49ers -6.5
I said this a few weeks ago, but people have kind of forgotten about SF this year. The team has been scrapping and battling to stay in the NFC West race, while everybody is talking about the Lions. I totally get it, but it would be wise to remember who the 49ers are. When it's all said and done, this is probably the team opposing Detroit in the NFC championship game again. Getting CMC back is like Thanos putting the final stone in the gauntlet. The offense should slice through Seattle's pitiful defense, which should be enough to win by seven at home after a sloppy showing in Tampa last week.
Pick 4: Lions -14
I really do hate laying these gigantic numbers. But there's always a little leeway with a team like Detroit. Despite missing TE Sam LaPorta, the Lions have more than enough weapons to throttle lowly Jacksonville. A couple weeks ago they took Tennessee apart brick by brick in a 52-14 thrashing. I think we could see something similar here. The Jags are going with Mac Jones against thanks to a Trevor Lawrence injury. Jones could only lead his team to seven points last week. That's not going to cut it against the class of the NFC.
Pick 5: Steelers +3
The truth of the matter is there isn't a ton of data on why I like this. I feel the Steelers and Ravens likely split the season series, so with Pitt at home this is their best shot. While Alex Highsmith is out (big loss), it's still probably the best defense this Ravens team has seen so far. I don't expect them to shut down their offense, but limit it enough for the offense to exploit a turnstile Balty defense. The big matchup is how Russell Wilson and George Pickens can repeat the Burrow-Chase success from last week.
Best of luck this weekend.
