This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The 2-9 Raiders have to spend their Black Friday at Arrowhead Stadium, which probably isn't the way they'd prefer. The 10-1 Chiefs probably feel the exact opposite – they get to follow up the holiday with a home game against the team that embarrassed the Chiefs at Arrowhead on Christmas of last year. The Chiefs haven't necessarily gotten better since last year's game, but the Raiders have definitely gotten worse. The Chiefs get back Isiah Pacheco at RB, while the Raiders will be without starting quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Chiefs are favored by 13.0 points with the over/under at 42.5.
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes ($10800 DK, $16000 FD) should be able to inflict damage on the Raiders defense, and perhaps quite a lot if the Chiefs choose. It's unlikely that the Raiders score or move the ball regularly enough to force the Chiefs into an urgently pass-happy script, but the Raiders pass defense is one of the worst in the league and so Mahomes should be relatively efficient if nothing else.
Aidan O'Connell ($8800 DK, $5000 FD) isn't a starting-caliber quarterback at the NFL level, and this game could be difficult for him. Even when O'Connell beat the Chiefs last year the Raiders didn't throw the ball by choice. This time they might be compelled to throw the ball, and in that sense there could be some amount of volume upside with O'Connell, but efficient production seems unlikely. On FD the price is low enough that he could be worth
The 2-9 Raiders have to spend their Black Friday at Arrowhead Stadium, which probably isn't the way they'd prefer. The 10-1 Chiefs probably feel the exact opposite – they get to follow up the holiday with a home game against the team that embarrassed the Chiefs at Arrowhead on Christmas of last year. The Chiefs haven't necessarily gotten better since last year's game, but the Raiders have definitely gotten worse. The Chiefs get back Isiah Pacheco at RB, while the Raiders will be without starting quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Chiefs are favored by 13.0 points with the over/under at 42.5.
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes ($10800 DK, $16000 FD) should be able to inflict damage on the Raiders defense, and perhaps quite a lot if the Chiefs choose. It's unlikely that the Raiders score or move the ball regularly enough to force the Chiefs into an urgently pass-happy script, but the Raiders pass defense is one of the worst in the league and so Mahomes should be relatively efficient if nothing else.
Aidan O'Connell ($8800 DK, $5000 FD) isn't a starting-caliber quarterback at the NFL level, and this game could be difficult for him. Even when O'Connell beat the Chiefs last year the Raiders didn't throw the ball by choice. This time they might be compelled to throw the ball, and in that sense there could be some amount of volume upside with O'Connell, but efficient production seems unlikely. On FD the price is low enough that he could be worth it anyway.
RUNNING BACK
Isiah Pacheco ($9200 DK, $14500 FD) is arguably the toughest call in this game. It's his first game back from a 10-week absence due to a broken fibula, and it's probably a game the Chiefs can win without Pacheco. That he's active means Pacheco will definitely play, but this could still just be more like a warmup game for Pacheco than a true unleashing. Kareem Hunt ($9000 DK, $14000 FD) would be expected to pick up most or nearly all slack if Pacheco is eased back in, though technically the likes of Samaje Perine ($3000 DK, $6500 FD) and Carson Steele ($1400 DK, $5500 FD) are plenty eligible to get in on the festivities too. For Perine or Steele to do much it would probably require an early blowout win for the Chiefs. Whoever gets substantial usage at running back figures to be quite productive for the Chiefs in this game.
Ameer Abdullah ($5800 DK, $9500 FD) might have done enough against the Broncos in Week 12 to hold on to the starting role even if Alexander Mattison ($6200 DK, $9500 FD) is able to return from his ankle injury. It's possible that no running back is useful for the Raiders in this game, but given the projected game script the coveted player would be whichever one handles passing-down tasks, with the assumption being the Raiders might not have the luxury of running much. If Mattison is out or limited then it seems like the third-best candidate to see snaps would be Sincere McCormick rather than Dylan Laube, given that the latter did not play last week even when Mattison and Zamir White were both out (whereas McCormick did play).
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Brock Bowers ($10000 DK, $13000 FD) and Jakobi Meyers ($8000 DK, $10500 FD) are tough fades even with the Raiders' gloomy overall projection. It's possible that the Raiders run little in this game due to falling behind early, and if so any potential production that might have been allocated toward the Raiders run game will instead have to go to the pass, where Bowers and Meyers have a near monopoly on usage. If the Raiders throw 30 passes it would be easy to imagine 20 or more of the targets going to Bowers and Meyers. Then again, Bowers and Meyers might fare better in PPR scoring given that the Raiders are not expected to reach scoring range much. The remaining pass catchers are not compelling, but the wideout duo of Tre Tucker ($4400 DK, $8500 FD) and DJ Turner ($2400 DK, $7000 FD) should see plenty of snaps at least. Tucker is likely the better player between himself and Turner. Michael Mayer sees snaps at tight end and has a lot of talent but is mostly reduced to a blocker.
Travis Kelce ($9600 DK, $11500 FD) is going through real decline and it's tough to correctly gauge his projection in any given game at the moment. The yards-after-catch ability appears totally gone, which has opened up room for Noah Gray ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) to make a consistent impact. Kelce won't stay down forever, but guessing his upswings will be one of the more difficult ongoing weekly questions this year. DeAndre Hopkins ($8400 DK, $11000 FD) is very obviously the best route runner the Chiefs have, but to this point Andy Reid has either disagreed or decided to tempt fate by giving more snaps to backup-caliber wideouts like Justin Watson ($2800 DK, $7000 FD) and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4000 DK, $7500 FD). Hopkins will be productive if he gets the snaps, but you need the snaps to get the targets and last week Watson (48) and Smith-Schuster (37) both played more snaps than Hopkins (25). Xavier Worthy ($7400 DK, $10000 FD) appears to have his usage locked in, at least, and he could very well be a major factor in this slate. Some collection of Kansas City pass catchers should do damage here.
KICKER
Matthew Wright ($5000 DK) will be your Kansas City kicker with Harrison Butker out. Wright likely has very little range but tends to be accurate from within 50 yards. Then again, 50-yard field goals are where the fantasy upside is a lot of the time, so Wright categorically does not have the upside that Butker would have. Still, Wright could play a role in cashing lineups if the Chiefs get into scoring range multiple times but fail to score touchdowns.
Daniel Carlson ($4800 DK, $8000 FD) is one of the league's five best kickers but he plays for the worst team. When Carlson gets opportunities he takes full advantage of them, boasting standout accuracy and range both. Guessing whether he sees such opportunities here isn't easy, but what's safe to assume is that the Raiders will not score that many points. Perhaps their meager projected point total will mostly be accrued by Carlson's kicks, but perhaps not.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Chiefs ($6800 DK, $9000 FD) could be set up quite well in this game. The Raiders are a uniquely bad team at 2-9, and there's a decent chance O'Connell is a downgrade from Minshew. With no running game and only short-range targets in the passing game the Raiders just aren't really built to threaten any defense in particular, let alone one as good as the Chiefs.
Las Vegas ($3200 DK, $8000 FD) is of course not a serious consideration through most lenses, although one could correctly point out that the same was true last year before the Raiders beat the Chiefs on Christmas. Then again, this Vegas team is probably worse than the one from last year, and certainly the Vegas odds makers agree given the 13.0-point spread.
