Best Ball ADP Analysis: Early Bargain on Jeremiyah Love?

It doesn't take long these days to get decent data for NFL best ball ADPs, with thousands of drafts already taking place on Underdog and Drafters during the first two weeks of February. A lot will change between now and the summer, after free agency and the draft give us a fairly clear picture of Week 1 rosters. Best Ball ADPs tend to stabilize at that point, around May/June, with significant changes thereafter typically explained by injuries, trades, news nuggets, preseason performances, etc.

At this early juncture, we'll still see 2026 best ball ADPs move around some for no real reason at all, with the market not truly able to settle before the upcoming value shock in mid-March when teams start to negotiate with free agents.

In the tables below you'll see three columns after each player's name. The first column shows ADP from Underdog; the second is ADP from Drafters; the third shows my personal rankings. Everything is sorted by ADP on Underdog, as that's the closest thing that exists to an industry standard/default for best-ball valuations. Drafters (full PPR) and Underdog (half PPR) have some major, major differences in terms of format and scoring system, but the ADPs do tend to be very similar nonetheless.

Color-coding is used to indicate possible value. For example, Jeremiyah Love's ADP on Drafters (21.7) is listed below in green font, because it's significantly later than both his Underdog ADP (18.7) and where I have Love ranked (16th). Each individual draft is different, but on average, Love is a relative bargain on Drafters.

On the other hand, Chase Brown's ADP on Drafters (19.2) is listed in red, because that's much earlier than both his Underdog ADP (23.1) and where I have Brown ranked (33rd).

For the final column, it's a bit different, because those are my personal ranks rather than ADP. If a number is listed in red, it means I've ranked the player significant later than his ADP on both sites, e.g., Chase Brown and CeeDee Lamb.

Last but not least, I want to note that my best-ball rankings are considerably different from the PPR Top 300 (intended for normal redraft) that I posted shortly after the Super Bowl. That's partially because the two formats are different, but also because my best-ball rankings take ADP into consideration. In other words, I'm not usually ranking guys more than a couple rounds ahead of ADP, because it rarely makes sense use a pick on a player who is highly likely to still be available when we make our next pick (if we don't take him now).

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Rounds 1-2

I'm mostly in agreement with the market here, at least until Chase Brown, who isn't a good enough real-life player for me to draft him this early without first seeing Cincinnati's offseason moves. I worry that the Bengals will draft/sign a superior runner, which could take a big chunk out of Brown's goal-line work. He can handle volume without breaking down... the question is whether he's good enough that you want him to.

The other big differences between my rankings and best-ball ADPs? I have Ashton Jeanty and De'Von Achane ahead of CeeDee Lamb, while both sites have it the other way around (Lamb going ahead of the RBs). I'm also low on Trey McBride and slightly high on Brock Bowers, ranking them right next to each other at 17-18. Lastly, I've got Derrick Henry ahead of Saquon Barkley (20th vs. 21st), even though Barkley is going 4-6 picks earlier in drafts.

The differences between Drafters ADP and Underdog ADP are mostly small — and often explained by the differences in contest format — with the main points of disagreement being Brown and Jeremiyah Love. While not quite at the Jeanty/Barkley level of RB prospect, Love is a probable top-15 pick who caught 85 percent of his targets at Notre Dame, with 55 catches for 517 yards and five TDs in two seasons as the lead back. He wasn't a high-volume receiver in college but has the skills to immediately catch 50-plus passes in the NFL; no need to downgrade him in PPR, apart from the slight penalty relative to reception-heavy profiles at WR/TE, e.g., McBride, Nabers, London.

Rounds 3-4

Just like with my redraft rankings, I'm way below the market on most of the second-year pros at running back. TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey simply didn't play well enough to earn starting jobs for 2026 without serious competition, while Cam Skattebo and Quinshon Judkins — both of whom did play well as rookies — are returning from major leg/ankle injuries.

It sounds like Judkins' injury may not have been quite as bad as Skattebo's, but the latter got hurt earlier in the season and thus has more time to rehab before training camp. Both are expected to be ready for Week 1; my concern is that there's a poor track record for players returning from the combination of a leg fracture and ankle dislocation (Chris Godwin being the most recent example).

Rounds 5-6

I don't at all understand why Caleb Williams is going in the sixth round. Quarterbacks in general are going too early for my liking, both on Drafters and Underdog, with Williams in particular looking like a terrible pick at ADP. Nothing against the player; I just think there are similar upside bets that can be made at the position in Rounds 8-11.

Rounds 7-9

To me it seems like early drafters on both sites are too eager to take QBs and TEs. The depth at WR admittedly looks ugly right now beyond the first few rounds, but I still prefer targeting mostly RBs and WRs in this range, before focusing more on QBs and TEs during the double-digit rounds.

Rounds 10-12

WR depth looks the worst it has in recent memory, which might partially explain why mediocre QBs are going early relative to previous years. This has always been an ADP range that's heavy on QBs and TEs, but now it feels exaggerated. Why the heck would you draft Bryce Young over Emmett Johnson, a rookie RB who is widely projected as a Day 2 pick? I don't understand the urgency to fill out QB spots; depth at the position isn't half bad.

Rounds 13-16

I don't understand why Tyjae Spears goes so much later on Underdog (half PPR) than Drafters (PPR). Sure, he's largely been a passing-down back, but his fantasy scoring hasn't been as reception-dependent as that of a WR or TE. My feelings about Spears as a player aren't strong one way or another; I just want to point out a common market error. 

Best-ball drafters tend to think about the impact of scoring systems when comparing players to alternatives at the same position, but they aren't always factoring in how it should impact rankings between players at different positions. Theoretically, QBs and RBs should be going slightly earlier on Underdog (half PPR), while WRs and TEs go slightly later on Drafters (half PPR). In practice, that doesn't really hold.

Rounds 17+

At this point, differences in ADP/rankings aren't so important. Values are close enough together that we can just pick the guys we like / the guys we need based on positional depth. That said, it's nice to know that guys like Ja'Kobi Lane, Keaton Mitchell and Ryan Flournoy may be available as endgame picks. I rank them a tier or two above that.