Beating the Book: Pats Handle Bears, Jets Win in Denver + Full Week 7 Picks and Predictions

It's that time of the week again. Sit down, buckle up, grab a 2-liter of Mountain Dew Code Red and let's make some picks.

Week 6 in the NFL has come and gone, and in its wake we're left with more confusion than ever. Looking at the NFC, specifically, is there a true second-best team behind the undefeated Eagles? Is it the Vikings? Maybe the Cowboys with Dak coming back? It can't be the Giants… can it?  With the 49ers, Packers and Bucs all losing as heavy favorites in Week 6, the correct answer is: there's no clear answer.

In the AFC, the story is much the same. After knocking off Kansas City on Sunday, Buffalo sits atop the conference at 5-1. The Chiefs, of course, are still very much a contender, but beyond those top two teams, it starts to get murky fast. At the end of the day, the NFL is set up to encourage parity, and that's exactly what we're getting this season.

Turning the page to Week 7, the first thing that jumps out is we won't have three of the NFL's best teams available to bet this week. The Eagles, Bills and Vikings – who've combined for two losses – are all on bye, as are the red-hot Los Angeles Rams, fresh off of trailing the PJ Walker Panthers at halftime last week.

Beyond that, the board is heavy on home favorites. As of Wednesday, 11 of the 14 games feature a home favorite, with the Bucs (-10.5 at Carolina), Packers (-4.5 at Washington) and Chiefs (-3.0 at San Francisco) standing as the outliers.

In a season marred by some high-profile offenses struggling, only one game (Seahawks-Chargers) has a total north of 49.0 points, while five games – Bucs-Panthers, Giants-Jags, Packers-Commanders, Jets-Broncos, Bears-Pats – sit at 42.0 or lower.

Before we fully dive into Week 7, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 6 picks.

Last week: 8-6 ATS; 7-7 straight up; best bet lost

On the season: 45-45-4 ATS; 58-35-1 straight up; 1-5 best bets

Best calls of Week 6: 

• For the second time this season, I'm going to designate a Cardinals game as my anti-lock of the week. Take a long look in the mirror and think about all of the loved ones in your life before betting any amount of money on this game.
• The Packers' issues aren't going to be ironed out over the course of a week – especially post-London – so I think we get a dogfight and another uneasy crowd at Lambeau Field. With Aaron Rodgers playing like a slightly above-average quarterback, the gap in talent between the two teams isn't all that wide.

Worst calls of Week 6:

• I'll reluctantly put on my Byron Leftwich jersey and take the Jags to rediscover their ground game and win outright at the Joseph Addai Dome. 
• A matchup against this version of the Steelers should be a major confidence booster for Tom Brady.

NFL Week 7 Picks: Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via FanDuel, as of Wednesday at Noon ET.

Thursday Night Football

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Another banger to kick off the week. Sitting at 2-4, it feels like both Arizona and New Orleans badly need this game, but mathematically both teams are still very much in the mix in their respective divisions. The Rams and 49ers have both been disappointing thus far, while in the NFC South the Bucs have been far from dominant.

Andy Dalton may be in line for another start on a short week, and while he's played fairly well, he's nursing a back injury and this is a difficult spot for New Orleans. Not only do the Saints have to travel, but they're expected to be without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, while both of their starting corners – Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo – are also banged up. 

Update: 

On the other side, Arizona's injury report isn't a whole lot better. We already know Hollywood Brown and starting left guard Justin Pugh won't play, and it looks as though James Conner is on track to join them in street clothes. The Cards should get a major boost from DeAndre Hopkins, but it's fair to wonder what he'll look like following a long layoff, plus a short week of practice.

As you can probably tell, I don't feel good about either of these teams. There's a reason I put the Cardinals in betting jail last week, after all. Despite knowing full well that they've lost nine in a row at Beanie Wells Stadium, I'm trusting the Cardinals to contain Alvin Kamara and do just enough to pull out the wow, both of these teams are pretty bad type of victory that's become all too common in 2022.

The pick: Cardinals 24 – Saints 21

Sunday Early Games

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens

Well, here I am yet again loving this spot for the Ravens. In the interest of honesty, I also loved Baltimore last week against the Giants, though I was not anticipating another big-time letdown game from Lamar Jackson.

Back at home, where they dispatched the Bengals two weeks ago, it feels like Baltimore is catching Cleveland at a great time. Jacoby Brissett is coming off of easily his worst game of the season, Myles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney and Denzel Ward are still banged up, and the Browns' defense has allowed 864 yards of offense over the last two weeks.

If Bailey Zappe can toast this defense for 309 passing yards, I like Jackson's* chances to shake off a pair of sub-par performances and get back on track. With Rashod Bateman trending toward a return, give me the Ravens to win and cover at home.

*Sidebar: Feels weird referring to him as just "Jackson". He's so clearly a "Lamar". It's like calling LeBron James "James" or Kawhi Leonard "Leonard". You would never say to a friend "Leonard really went off last night". Just had to get that off my chest.

The pick: Ravens 27 – Browns 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers

If the Bucs were playing literally any other team, I would not take them to cover a big spread for the second week in a row. But sometimes the schedule has a way of working its magic. A meeting with the Panthers is exactly what this Bucs team, which has been stuck in second gear all season, needs right now.

Last week against Pittsburgh, the Bucs were consistently able to move the ball, but they had drives of 11, 12 and 14 plays each end in a field goal. On the season, Tampa has only two rushing scores, while Brady has tossed just eight touchdowns – one less than he had through the first two games a year ago. While the offensive line may be a season-long issue, I do trust that the Bucs' offense will gradually pick up steam.

With a completely inept passing game on the other side – PJ Walker's longest completion against the Rams traveled literally one-yard past the line of scrimmage – Tampa should have plenty of leeway should Brady and Co. get off to another slow start.

In what could be Christian McCaffrey's final game in a Delhomme turquoise uniform, I'm taking the Bucs to win and cover.

The pick: Buccaneers 31 – Panthers 9

Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

With their convincing win over the 49ers last week, the Falcons remain the NFL's only undefeated team against the spread. No offense to the Eagles, but some would say that's more impressive than actually being undefeated.

Anyway, I keep saying the Falcons are the league's friskiest team, and clearly nothing has changed on that front. If anything, they appear to be growing increasingly frisky with each passing week. Marcus Mariota continues to avoid mistakes and do just enough to sustain drives. Get this: he even did the unthinkable Sunday and threw the ball to little-known tight Kyle Pitts – for a touchdown, no less!

Meanwhile, the defense exceeded expectations yet again. It stepped up with a fumble-return touchdown and held strong after the Niners rallied to tie the game at 14. Going up against the Bengals presents a more difficult test, but Cincinnati is still struggling to run the ball, so the Falcons should be able to hang around.

The Bengals did finally unlock Ja'Marr Chase for a big play to seal their win over the Saints last week, and having Tee Higgins back is a huge boost. To me, this offense remains the biggest sleeping giant in the league. If they can figure out the ground game, the Bengals should be able to shake off a slow start and hit their stride at the right time.

I think the Falcons once again frisk things up and cover the spread, but I'll take Cincinnati to win outright at home.

The pick: Bengals 28 – Falcons 24

Detroit Lions (+7.0) at Dallas Cowboys

The Lions left a bad taste in our mouths with their letdown against New England, so I get why the Cowboys are getting a full 7.0 points here. But the Lions are coming out of a bye week and could have Amon-Ra St. Brown, D'Andre Swift and DJ Chark back healthy. That's a significant boost for an offense that put up 35, 36, 24 and 45 points prior to the New England no-show.

On paper, Dallas should get a nice boost from Dak Prescott – assuming he plays – but it's reasonable to expect him to show some rust after more than a month off. Keep in mind, too, that Prescott completed just 14-of-29 passes for 134 yards and a pick before exiting Week 1 against Tampa Bay.

With that said, this Lions defense might actually be the worst in the league, so it's a good spot for Dak to have a soft landing. In the end though, it's the Cowboys' defense that tips the scales in their favor. As long as Dallas can contain the run at even a reasonable clip, I like their chances to force Jared Goff into uncomfortable throws.

Coming out of the bye, the Lions can cover, but I like the Cowboys to win at home and move to 5-2.

The pick: Cowboys 27 – Lions 21

New York Giants (+3.0) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Just a really uncool matchup for me, personally. After cruelly sucking me back in with convincing wins over the Colts and Chargers, the Jags are rapidly careening toward same old Jags territory. Following Sunday's second-half collapse in Indianapolis, I had a nightmare that they cut Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk in order to re-sign Toby Gerhart and Cecil Shorts. I wouldn't wish this on my worst enemy.

Literally the worst thing that could happen for the Jags right now is playing the Giants at home. If there's one thing I've staked my reputation on this season, it's that the Giants are not good at football. With each passing win, that statement looks worse and worse, but even at 5-1 I refuse to put any faith in this team. 

The paradox, of course, is that I also have no faith in the Jaguars. I might even have negative faith at this point. However, the oddsmakers apparently see something they like about a team that just lost at home to the Texans and failed to sack Matt "Baby Michael Vick" Ryan a single time on 58 dropbacks.

There's something about this game that's tremendously unsettling. Nothing would truly surprise me, but it would be strangely poetic for the Jags to put an end to all of this Giants nonsense. It's bordering on hullabaloo at this point.

I feel like I'm being baited into it, but I'm taking the Jags to win AND cover at home in their first win over an NFC team since 2018 (real stat -- I checked).

The pick: Jaguars 17 – Giants 13

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans

Not too long ago, the Colts were on the ropes and on the verge of a complete disaster season, but they've seemingly righted the ship and could take control of the AFC South with a win on the road. Much like the first meeting between these teams three weeks ago, this is an impossible game to pick. Tennessee won that battle 24-17 but was vastly out-gained by Indianapolis, which squandered multiple chances to tie or win the game in the second half.

I'm pretty convinced that neither of these teams are any good, and while Indianapolis is slightly more talented, I'll side with the Titans solely because they're at home and coming off of a much-needed bye week.

The pick: Titans 23 – Colts 20

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Washington Commanders

The last three weeks have forced me to completely re-evaluate my opinion on the Packers. Coming into the year, I thought they would take a slight step back on offense but end up as a more-dangerous overall team by the time the postseason rolls around. Now, I'm not even sure if they'll make the playoffs. Losing back to back games to the Giants and Jets may not be quite as disastrous now and it would've seemed back in August, but it's the way in which Green Bay has lost that's most concerning.

The offensive line is crumbling, the defense is constantly out of sorts, Matt Lafleur consistently forgets that he has running backs on his roster, and worst of all Aaron Rodgers is no longer transcendent enough to cover it all up. The Packers have more than enough talent to get things figured out over the second half of the season, but this is a team that appears to have lost faith in itself. The issues that came to roost against the New York teams aren't going to be fixed in a matter of days.

Fortunately for Green Bay, it falls headfirst into an excellent matchup against a Commanders team without its starting quarterback. The drop-off from Carson Wentz to Taylor Heinicke might not be massive, but it should be enough to buy the Packers some time when their offense inevitably comes out sluggish for the fourth straight game. 

This line has already moved by a full point in favor of the Commanders over the last 24 hours. I don't see them winning this game outright, but I like Washington to put up a fight and cover in another concerning, uninspiring performance by the Green Bay offense.

The pick: Packers 17 – Commanders 13

Sunday Late Games

New York Jets (+1.5) at Denver Broncos

Heading into Week 1, this line sat at Broncos -7.5, which speaks not only to Denver's rapid demise, but also to the rapid ascent of this Jets team. I still have major questions about Zach Wilson, who's been handled with kid gloves the last two weeks, but there's no doubt that New York has a ton of young talent on both sides of the ball. Last week's win over the Packers wasn't a fluke – they were the better team.

Given how the Broncos have looked this season, there's a case to be made that they don't even deserve to be favored against a 4-2 opponent. However, Denver's defense – which ranks second in DVOA behind only Buffalo – deserves very little blame for the appallingly bad start and should be in a good spot against a limited, turnover-prone quarterback.

Of course, the status of Russell Wilson will be worth monitoring closely throughout the week, but there could almost be a galvanizing effect if Denver is forced to turn to Brett Rypien. The Russell Westbrook comparisons started off as a joke, but it's beginning to feel more and more like the Broncos' problems begin and end with Mr. Unlimited. 

I can't believe I'm taking Zach Wilson on the road, but here we are. Jets win outright to send Denver into a full-on tailspin.

The pick: Jets 16 – Broncos 14

Houston Texans (+7.0) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Texans have hung in with some superior opponents this season, and the last time we saw them they took down the Jaguars in Jacksonville, but this is a good spot for Vegas with their season already potentially on the line. The Raiders should've won in Kansas City before the bye, and it feels like their offense – led by a resurgent Josh Jacobs – is beginning to heat up.

While the Raiders are the type of team that will allow the Texans to hang around, I don't see them getting tripped up at home. Raiders win and cover the spread.

The pick: Raiders 31 – Texans 23

Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

This game has easily the highest total on the board this week, and rightfully so. Both defenses rank near the bottom of the league in EPA, and both are particularly bad against the run. Unlike last week, when both Seattle and Arizona floundered on offense, I think we get significantly more fireworks here.

The Chargers are 4-2 but it's not a convincing 4-2. The offense still feels limited, Justin Herbert is constantly fleeing the pocket and they sorely miss Keenan Allen, who could finally make his return this week. On the bright side, Austin Ekeler has officially bounced back from his sluggish start and enters Week 7 as the top running back in fantasy football (PPR scoring).

Meanwhile, Geno Smith should be in a good spot to bounce back against a Chargers defense that had multiple coverage breakdowns against an inept Denver passing game on Monday night. Things got so bad that J.C. Jackson – the same J.C. Jackson who signed an $82 million deal this summer – was benched for the second half.

Over the last decade or so, these have been the two most chaotic teams in the NFL, so be prepared for some weird sh*t to go down. At no point will any lead be safe. The Chargers could be up 35-0 going into the fourth quarter and somehow Seattle will end up driving deep into Los Angeles territory with 40 seconds left and a chance to win the game.

With the hope that Allen is back in the mix to add a jolt to the passing game, I'll take the Chargers to win but Seattle to cover the 6.5.

The pick: Chargers 33 – Seahawks 29

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0) at San Francisco 49ers

As of publication, the 49ers carry over a preposterous injury report from last week's letdown against the Falcons. Whether players like Charvarius Ward, Talanoa Hufanga, Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead are ultimately available will color my opinion on this game, but it's not realistic to expect all of San Francisco's playmakers to be cleared.

Even if both sides were fully healthy, I would still take the Chiefs, despite the fact that they've lost to the Colts, barely beat the Chargers, barely beat the Raiders and lost to the Bills in four of their last five games. Defensively, the Chiefs have some issues, but they've been above-average against the run and should be able to contain the Jeff Wilson-Tevin Coleman backfield duo.

On the other side of the ball, Kansas City finally got JuJu Smith-Schuster rolling last week – a major development for an offense that lacked a true No. 2 option behind Travis Kelce. Injury situation aside, the 49ers aren't going to roll over – especially at home – but I think the Chiefs are able to get the job done and cover.

The pick: Chiefs 27 – 49ers 21

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.0) at Miami Dolphins

This is a tricky one. Left for dead a week ago, the Steelers' defense earned back some respect after holding the Bucs to only 18 points in Week 6. On top of that, Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett combined for two touchdowns, no turnovers and several key third-down conversions.

Many are asking: Should the Steelers run a two-quarterback system where Pickett starts the game and Trubisky comes in as the closer to get the save? Something to think about.

As of Wednesday, Pickett remains in concussion protocol, but Mike Tomlin indicated the rookie will start as long as he's cleared. For Miami's purposes, Pickett vs. Trubisky is probably a wash, but this game will come down to whether or not the Dolphins can effectively move the ball with Tua Tagovailoa expected to make his return. Yardage-wise, the Dolphins have been an explosive offense, but they rank in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Outside of the 42-point eruption against Baltimore in Week 2, Miami has scored 20, 21, 15, 17 and 16 points in its other five games. 

I have some skepticism as to how Tua will look in his return, so I don't think Miami runs away with this game. Even at home, giving 7.0 points to Mike Tomlin is too much. I'll take the Dolphins to win – they can't possibly lose in their throwbacks on the 50th anniversary of the undefeated 1972 team – but Pittsburgh covers.

The pick: Dolphins 23 – Steelers 20

Monday Night Football

Chicago Bears (+7.5) at New England Patriots

This number has swelled to Pats -8.0 at virtually every other book, so if you like New England in this spot, now is the time to lock that in on FanDuel. With a total of 39.5 points, it's projected as the second-lowest-scoring game of the week behind Jets-Broncos.

New England is coming off of back-to-back beatdowns of the Lions and Browns – two teams with significantly more talent than the Bears. Chicago does carry a certain chaos element with Justin Fields, but if there's one coach who will have his defense prepared for a running quarterback, it's Bill Belichick.

It remains to be seen if Mac Jones will be cleared to return for this game, but as of Wednesday it looks like a distinct possibility. The Pats have quickly built some momentum behind Bailey Zappe, however, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he gets one more start before next week's divisional showdown against the Jets.

This will almost certainly be a slow-paced, drawn-out game with two run-heavy offenses. I'll put my faith in the more talented and better-coached side. Pats win and cover at home to move to 4-3.

The pick: Patriots 24 – Bears 13