Beating the Book: NFL Championship Weekend ATS Picks + Predictions

Welcome to the Championship Weekend edition of Beating the Book!

We're down to just three games remaining in the NFL season – a daunting thought for those of us who aren't yet mentally prepared to endure six months without football. Coming off of a Divisional Round weekend that lived up to the hype, we're now left with a pair of intriguing matchups with Super Bowl berths on the line.

In the AFC, the top-seeded Ravens will look to punch their ticket at home as 3.5-point favorites, while the Niners will look to do the same as 7.0-point favorites over Detroit. 

You can find my thoughts on the full Championship Weekend slate, below. As is the case every week throughout the season, we'll start chronologically and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. Our best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

Last week: 1-3 ATS; 3-1 SU; best bet lost (SF -9.5)

On the season: 135-138-8 ATS, 179-103 SU; 13-7 best bet

Best call of the Divisional Round:

• As long as we don't get a Jared Goff disaster game – in the realm of possibility! – this is a game Detroit should be able to slow down and control at home. I don't love this one, but give me Detroit to win by a touchdown.

Worst calls of the Divisional Round:

• No matter what, this should be a close game and one that probably isn't remotely decided until late in the fourth quarter. Give me Buffalo to kick a game-winning field goal to win by three and pull off the narrow cover.
• As I've written all season, part of what makes the Niners so dangerous is they can play a B-level game and still win comfortably. That's the benefit of having such a wealth of playmakers on both sides. Packers hang around and make this a game, but we're taking the Niners to win by two scores.

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Sunday Games

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

I did pick the Bills to outlast Kansas City last week, but what I failed to account for is the tragic history of Buffalo when it comes to late-game kicking. While I'd like to say the Chiefs were "lucky" to escape with the victory, winning those kind of games in the playoffs is exactly what Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have found ways to do over and over again.

This week, the Chiefs will face an even stiffer test in Baltimore against a Ravens team that exerted its will on the Texans in the second half. The Ravens should again have the advantage on the ground against Kansas City after piling up 229 yards as a team a week ago.

The KC defense held up well against Miami in the Wild Card Round but gave up 182 rushing yards to Buffalo last week while allowing the Bills to possess the ball for over 37 minutes. Typically, that's not a recipe for success, you can get away with running 31 fewer plays than the opponent when you're gaining 7.7 yards per play. 

For the Ravens, sustaining drives and controlling the clock is the path to success. After going up 17-10 in the third quarter last week, the Ravens ripped off back-to-back, seven-plus-minute touchdown drives to pull away and seal the win. Baltimore can't count on the same level of dominance against Kansas City, but if they have to utilize Jackson more as a passer, that's certainly not a bad thing.

The bulk of Jackson's most-efficient passing games this season have come against quality opponents like Detroit, Miami, Cincinnati, San Francisco and the Rams. Jackson should also get his favorite weapon back from IR this week – a huge jolt for an offense that functioned just fine without him.

On the Chiefs side, the question for me is who steps up outside of Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice? That duo proved to be just enough last week – KC scored on its first five drives of the game – but the Chiefs will need a third option to emerge in order to find the same success in Baltimore. Credit to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for making a couple of big catches last week, but the larger sample strongly suggests that he's not a dependable weapon on a weekly basis.

While Baltimore is the better team, I fully expect Kansas City to hang around and play a tight game well into the fourth quarter. In the end, though, I keep coming back to my belief that the Chiefs simply don't have the weapons this season, as bulletproof as Mahomes tends to be in the playoffs. Again, I'd be surprised if the game isn't in the balance late, and I actually like Kansas City to cover the 3.5, but I think the Ravens get the job done at home and advance to their first Super Bowl since 2013.

The pick: Ravens 24 – Chiefs 21

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-7.0)

I wrote last week that the Niners are so talented they don't need to play their best game to beat good teams. While they didn't cover against Green Bay, the Niners survived a sluggish offensive night, an injury to Deebo Samuel and a rough game from Brock Purdy, to hang on for a narrow victory. Purdy was clearly impacted by the weather conditions last weekend, but I expect a calmer, more-decisive version of him this week against a vulnerable pass defense.

The degree to which the Lions can slow down Christian McCaffrey will be interesting note. Green Bay kept him (relatively) in check last week in what was ultimately a lower-volume game, but McCaffrey still had his share of inevitable big plays, including the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Detroit, meanwhile, has gone six straight games without allowing its opponent to hit even 90 yards on the ground. My guess is that streak comes to a screeching halt this week, though that may mean the Lions have to sell out against the run.

Entering the weekend, Detroit has been out-gained in six of its last eight games – decisively so in many of those, including the Wild Card win over the Rams. Winning the turnover battle has helped offset that disparity – Detroit is +7 with five multi-turnover games in that span – but doing so against a Niners team that ranks near the top of the league in both takeaways (fifth) and turnovers lost (sixth) will be a tough ask.

On the San Francisco side, the Deebo Samuel injury will be something to closely monitor (duh) throughout the week. Can the Niners win without him? Sure, probably. But Samuel is the skeleton key who unlocks their full potential, pushing them from an already-elite offense to one of the most dangerous, unpredictable offenses in recent memory. As was the case for Green Bay last week, a Samuel absence would obviously be huge for Detroit – simply not having to worry about one of the game's most unique weapons would take immense pressure off of Aaron Glenn's defense. If Samuel is in – and more importantly, makes it through the game – I'm not sure Detroit has the horses on defense to keep up with the Niners' four-headed monster of playmakers.

All season, I've had this feeling about the Lions that they're a good, ascending team but a cut below the true Super Bowl contenders in the NFC. Making it this far has all but disproved that theory, though collapses by Dallas and, especially, Philly have certainly helped pave the way. 

While the Lions are one of very few teams who can match San Francisco's effectiveness on the ground, my concern lies in their (relative) lack of options in the passing game beyond Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Detroit can't expect to control the tempo all night with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and at some point they'll need Jared Goff to make multiple gotta-have-it plays.

I'm not saying I don't trust Goff – I think I actually do at this point – I simply trust the 49ers more to limit those plays in this spot. The conditions shouldn't be too much of a factor for Goff, but this will be the Lions' first playoff game away from a massive home field advantage in Detroit. It'll also be their first outdoor game since Dec. 10 and just their second since Week 7.

I know I picked against the Niners last week and it backfired, but we're going back to the well. Give me the Niners to finally break through and win this game by two scores to set up a rematch of their Week 16 turnover-fest against Baltimore in the Super Bowl.

The pick: 49ers 31 – Lions 21