This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Overall, I'm not thrilled with a 6-8 week, but I went 3-2 in the Supercontest and won my best bet, the Cardinals, on a miracle comeback. It certainly could have been worse.
This week, I especially like the Vikings, Falcons, Broncos, Packers and Titans. I'll post the Supercontest picks in the comments.
For the podcast version of this article, click here
THURSDAY NIGHT
Raiders +3 at 49ers
I made this line six, but I hadn't considered how little travel the Raiders, who were also home last week, have to do, and that was also before I realized the Niners were starting someone named Nick Mullens at quarterback, not that C.J. Beathard was that far above replacement value. This is like betting on a preseason game, but I'll stick with the 49ers.
49ers 23 - 19
EARLY GAMES
Lions +5 at Vikings
I set this line at 6.5. The Lions defense isn't good, and the Vikings offense is quietly one of the better ones in the league. Lay the wood.
Vikings 27 - 20
Chiefs -8.5 at Browns
I hate taking the Browns, but getting rid of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley is a good thing even if the new head coach, Gregg Williams, named his son the defensive coordinator. This is a massive road line, and the Browns should move the ball at least. Take the points.
Chiefs 30 - 23
Steelers +3 at Ravens
I made this line 3.5, as the Ravens are the
Overall, I'm not thrilled with a 6-8 week, but I went 3-2 in the Supercontest and won my best bet, the Cardinals, on a miracle comeback. It certainly could have been worse.
This week, I especially like the Vikings, Falcons, Broncos, Packers and Titans. I'll post the Supercontest picks in the comments.
For the podcast version of this article, click here
THURSDAY NIGHT
Raiders +3 at 49ers
I made this line six, but I hadn't considered how little travel the Raiders, who were also home last week, have to do, and that was also before I realized the Niners were starting someone named Nick Mullens at quarterback, not that C.J. Beathard was that far above replacement value. This is like betting on a preseason game, but I'll stick with the 49ers.
49ers 23 - 19
EARLY GAMES
Lions +5 at Vikings
I set this line at 6.5. The Lions defense isn't good, and the Vikings offense is quietly one of the better ones in the league. Lay the wood.
Vikings 27 - 20
Chiefs -8.5 at Browns
I hate taking the Browns, but getting rid of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley is a good thing even if the new head coach, Gregg Williams, named his son the defensive coordinator. This is a massive road line, and the Browns should move the ball at least. Take the points.
Chiefs 30 - 23
Steelers +3 at Ravens
I made this line 3.5, as the Ravens are the more desperate team, at home and won easily in Heinz Field earlier in the year. But the Steelers defense has been better of late, and Joe Flacco hasn't played well. Still, I'll lay the wood.
Ravens 26 - 20
Buccaneers +6.5 at Panthers
The Panthers looked great crushing the Ravens, but I'll take the Bucs, with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, getting nearly a TD against a mediocre defense.
Panthers 31 - 27
Jets +3 at Dolphins
This is a total coin flip, but I'll take the Dolphins, who have the better quarterback - yes, Brock Osweiler is better than Sam Darnold right now - and who had 10 days off since their absolute defensive no-show in Houston.
Dolphins 24 - 20
Falcons +1.5 at Redskins
The Redskins are terrible on offense, and while the defensive front is stout, they can be beaten in the passing game. Take the Falcons coming off a bye.
Falcons 27 - 20
Bears -9.5 at Bills
Nathan Peterman is good for a pick-12, but I have to take the points out of principle here. This is a massive road line for a team line the Bears, and the Bills defense should get after Mitchell Trubisky. Back Buffalo.
Bears 16 - 13
LATE GAMES
Texans +1 at Broncos
I made this line three, as I'm still not sold on Houston, and Denver's pass rush should get home against Deshaun Watson. Take the Broncos.
Broncos 23 - 19
Chargers +1.5 at Seahawks
I made this line a pick 'em, so I'm on the Chargers getting points. Seattle is a tough place to play, and the Chargers have a history of disastrous implosions, but they're better on both sides of the ball. Take the points.
Chargers 24 - 23
Rams +1.5 at Saints
I had this at 2.5, so I suppose I should be on the Saints. But I don't have a strong opinion and mostly just want to watch the game.
Saints 33 - 31
SUNDAY NIGHT
Packers +6 at Patriots
I set this line at 4.5. The Packers found something on defense by reshuffling their secondary, and Aaron Rodgers will have to take his frustrations from not getting a final possession to beat the Rams out on the Patriots this week. Mike McCarthy's idiocy is the only thing that gives me pause, but I'm taking Green Bay.
Patriots 27 - 24
MONDAY NIGHT
Titans +6.5 at Cowboys
I hate the Titans as much as the next guy, but the Cowboys are not a team with which I want to lay 6.5 against anyone. In fact, these two teams are pretty similar, which should mean a low-scoring, grind-it-out game where the points carry even more weight. Take the Titans.
Cowboys 19 - 16
For the podcast version of this article, click here
Last week, I went 6-8 to put me at 61-56-4 on the year, won my best bet, the Cardinals (4-4 overall), and went 3-2 in the Supercontest (21-18-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.
