This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 7-8 last week after digging a hole early, and I lost my best bet, the Chiefs, dropping me to 0-2 on that front. This week, I went back to the well, setting my own lines first. The easiest calls for me were probably the Cowboys, Colts and Seahawks. I also like the Falcons, but have a nervous vibe about it for some reason.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Jaguars +3.5 at Titans
This was exactly the line I had, so it's a coin flip for me. I don't like Tennessee as a favorite, but then again, I don't like the Jaguars on a short week going on the road. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the points.
Titans 20 - 17
LONDON GAME
Redskins +3 at Bengals
For the second straight week, I forgot this was the London game when making my line (4.5), so at first I was taking the Bengals as only three-point home favorites. I actually wrote it up as "Vegas finally treating Cincinnati as the 2016 version," and cited concerns about Jordan Reed and Josh Norman's health. So it's tough to pivot and go the other way, but 4.5 in Cincy means 1.5 on a neutral field, and the Redskins are getting three. Take the points
Bengals 24 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Lions +2.5 at Texans
I set this line at three. The Texans (and Brock Osweiler in particular) have looked terrible of late, but the downgrade in defense from Denver to Detroit should
I went 7-8 last week after digging a hole early, and I lost my best bet, the Chiefs, dropping me to 0-2 on that front. This week, I went back to the well, setting my own lines first. The easiest calls for me were probably the Cowboys, Colts and Seahawks. I also like the Falcons, but have a nervous vibe about it for some reason.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Jaguars +3.5 at Titans
This was exactly the line I had, so it's a coin flip for me. I don't like Tennessee as a favorite, but then again, I don't like the Jaguars on a short week going on the road. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the points.
Titans 20 - 17
LONDON GAME
Redskins +3 at Bengals
For the second straight week, I forgot this was the London game when making my line (4.5), so at first I was taking the Bengals as only three-point home favorites. I actually wrote it up as "Vegas finally treating Cincinnati as the 2016 version," and cited concerns about Jordan Reed and Josh Norman's health. So it's tough to pivot and go the other way, but 4.5 in Cincy means 1.5 on a neutral field, and the Redskins are getting three. Take the points
Bengals 24 - 23
EARLY GAMES
Lions +2.5 at Texans
I set this line at three. The Texans (and Brock Osweiler in particular) have looked terrible of late, but the downgrade in defense from Denver to Detroit should partially cure what ails them. Lay the wood.
Texans 27 - 23
Seahawks -3 at Saints
I set this line at four, even though the Saints are much better at home. The Seahawks played an awful game in Arizona, but I think they get it cleaned up against a terrible defense. Back Seattle.
Seahawks 27 - 19
Patriots -6.5 at Bills
The Patriots have been a covering machine this year, so I aggressively set this line at three - or so I thought. The real line (which is all the way to seven in some places) treats the Bills as a borderline doormat, which plainly they're not. Take the home dog.
Patriots 23 - 20
Jets -3 at Browns
I hate being forced to take the Browns every week, but here I am again, as I made this line Jets minus one. As terrible as Cleveland is - and as tired as I am of taking it - I'm not laying points on the road with the Jets.
Browns 21 - 20
Raiders +1 at Buccaneers
I made this Raiders plus 2.5 - as much as I don't respect them, they have to be considered better than Tampa, just not quite by this much. It's splitting hairs, but I'll take the Bucs.
Buccaneers 26 - 23
Chiefs -3 at Colts
I had this as Chiefs plus one. I respect Kansas City, but Andrew Luck is playing at an MVP level (even if he's not in the running given his supporting cast), and Indy's at home. Take the points.
Colts 31 - 30
Cardinals +2.5 at Panthers
I had this line at three. Both teams have underperformed, Arizona's banged up and Carolina's coming off a bye, so I have them as rough equals. Take the home team laying less than three.
Panthers 27 - 24
LATE GAMES
Chargers +5 at Broncos
I had this line at six. I know the Chargers beat Denver a couple weeks ago, but that was a Thursday night road game, and Trevor Siemian was coming back from a missed week. Lay the wood.
Broncos 27 - 20
Packers +3 at Falcons
I had this line at 3.5 - the Falcons are a good team, and the Packers strike me as overrated and not deserving of this much respect on the road. Lay the wood.
Falcons 24 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Eagles +4.5 at Cowboys
I had this line at 5.5. The Eagles defense played well against Minnesota, but this is a road game against an elite offensive line, and I don't think Jim Schwartz can scheme to stop it. Lay the wood.
Cowboys 27 - 17
MONDAY NIGHT
Vikings -6 at Bears
The Vikings cover-express finally derailed, dropping them to 18-4 over their last 22 games. Maybe they crush the Bears, but I made this line three - a robust road number against a division rival - and it's all the way to six. Take the points.
Vikings 20 - 16
I went 7-8 last week to go 53-53-1 on the season. I'm 0-2 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.
