This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 9-7 by conventional scoring last week, and that doesn't include a horrendous beat on Monday night, won my best bet (the Packers) and went 4-1 on LVH picks. As for my own scoring, I should have taken the Panthers, Saints and Eagles, so I'll give myself 13-3.
This week, I especially like the Texans, Steelers and Seahawks. I'll make my best bet in Staff Picks and post my LVH SuperContest selections in the comments below.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Patriots -5.5 at Buccaneeers
I'm now 0-4 on the Patriots, and I don't have a good feel for this one, either. Unless New England fixes its defense in a hurry, or the Bucs simply show up flat off the short week, this is too many points. Take Tampa.
Patriots 27 - 24
EARLY GAMES
Chargers +3.5 at Giants
These are roughly league-average teams despite being 0-4. I don't see why the Giants are giving the extra hook, though. Take the points.
Giants 23 - 20
Bills +3 at Bengals
The Bills are coming off a nice win in Atlanta, but the Falcons lost their top two receivers and were still driving for the win in crunch time. The Bengals seem to have righted the ship on offense too, albeit against the Browns. Take Cincinnati.
Bengals 24 - 20
Jets +1 at Browns
The Jets have been the better team so far, but I like taking the doormat in a winnable home game. Take the Browns.
Browns 20 - 17
Jaguars +9
I went 9-7 by conventional scoring last week, and that doesn't include a horrendous beat on Monday night, won my best bet (the Packers) and went 4-1 on LVH picks. As for my own scoring, I should have taken the Panthers, Saints and Eagles, so I'll give myself 13-3.
This week, I especially like the Texans, Steelers and Seahawks. I'll make my best bet in Staff Picks and post my LVH SuperContest selections in the comments below.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Patriots -5.5 at Buccaneeers
I'm now 0-4 on the Patriots, and I don't have a good feel for this one, either. Unless New England fixes its defense in a hurry, or the Bucs simply show up flat off the short week, this is too many points. Take Tampa.
Patriots 27 - 24
EARLY GAMES
Chargers +3.5 at Giants
These are roughly league-average teams despite being 0-4. I don't see why the Giants are giving the extra hook, though. Take the points.
Giants 23 - 20
Bills +3 at Bengals
The Bills are coming off a nice win in Atlanta, but the Falcons lost their top two receivers and were still driving for the win in crunch time. The Bengals seem to have righted the ship on offense too, albeit against the Browns. Take Cincinnati.
Bengals 24 - 20
Jets +1 at Browns
The Jets have been the better team so far, but I like taking the doormat in a winnable home game. Take the Browns.
Browns 20 - 17
Jaguars +9 at Steelers
The Jaguars defense has looked good early on, but they've played the Tom Savage Texans, the Ravens and the Jets. The Steelers are a different team at home, and I expect them to score points. Maybe the good Blake Bortles shows up, but I wouldn't count on it. Lay the wood.
Steelers 31 - 13
Titans -3 at Dolphins
The Dolphins have looked awful the last two weeks, but they've been traveling all over the globe without a home game so far, and the Titans are dealing with a gimpy quarterback and below-average defense. Take the home dog.
Dolphins 24 - 23
49ers +1.5 at Colts
I wanted to take the 49ers here because I root for good coaching, and I have Carlos Hyde in a lot of places. I have a nagging Colts feeling, though, and I'll heed it. Just feels like a game where Brian Hoyer has a couple turnovers, and Jacoby Brissett plays it safe. Lay the wood.
Colts 23 - 17
Cardinals +6.5 at Eagles
When I first looked at this game, I thought Eagles, easy. The Cardinals can neither run nor protect Palmer. But the more I thought about it, on the occasion Palmer does have time to throw, he'll probably torch a weak Eagles secondary. This game went from one of my easiest snap calls to my biggest coin flip. Still, I'll stick with my first read and lay the wood.
Eagles 27 - 20
Panthers +2.5 at Lions
Is Cam Newton back, or was it just a result of facing the Patriots generous defense? I'll bet the former, and as such I expect him to keep pace with the Lions dink and dunk offense.
Panthers 20 - 19
LATE GAMES
Seahawks +1.5 at Rams
My first instinct was to take the Seahawks, and I'll stick with it. Jared Goff has been much improved, but this is a much tougher defense than he's faced. Take the dog.
Seahawks 24 - 17
Ravens +2.5 at Raiders
EJ Manuel didn't look terrible last week, and Joe Flacco did. I honestly hate both these teams and wish I didn't have to pick this game. I suppose in that case I'll take the points.
Ravens 19 - 17
Packers +2 at Cowboys
The Packers are much better at home, but I don't think the Cowboys defense can slow Aaron Rodgers down, and Dallas' offensive line isn't what it used to be. Take the points.
Packers 28 - 27
SUNDAY NIGHT
Chiefs -1.5 at Texans
The Chiefs have been great this year, but they had no business covering last week, and the Texans have come around with Deshaun Watson at the helm and J.J. Watt looking healthy again. Take the points.
Texans 23 - 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Vikings -3 at Bears
I don't have a strong lean on this one, but I'll take the Bears as a Monday Night home dog in Mitch Trubisky's NFL debut. Take the points.
Vikings 17 - 16
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I went 9-7 against the spread in Week 4 to put me at 31-31-1 on the season. I went 4-1 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 10-10 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
