Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 4 - With Video

I didn't feel especially good about last week's games, so I'm pretty surprised to have gone 11-5. For the new and uninitiated, this fast start is *not* sustainable. I'd like to think I'm seeing things clearly - my resolution this year not to rely on anything but my own observations might have something to do with that, but 33-14 is not a real record picking 16 games ATS every week. It's like when Josh Hamilton was hitting .400 into June a few years ago - major regression was on its way (he finished the year at .285.) Hopefully, my drop-off won't be that steep, but rest assured it's coming.

I split on my best bets, winning (ugly) with the Saints and losing (even uglier) with the Packers, bringing my record on those to 6-3-1.

This week, I hate to do this, but I'm taking my own team, the Giants - and in a Thursday night game, no less. Having seen the offense finally come together last week, I just think they're better than the Redskins, and they're getting more than the full three. I also like the Jaguars to show up with Blake Bortles under center, and they're getting 13 at San Diego. I might add a third game in the comments, but I'll hold off for now.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Giants +3.5 at Redskins

Maybe I'm biased, but I think the Giants are better than the Redskins, and they're getting the hook. Back New York.

Giants 24 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Dolphins -4 vs. Raiders*

I had originally picked the Raiders here thinking it was a home game for them, but then I was reminded it's in London (I space on the London game every single year.) Now the line doesn't look as off, given the neutral setting. I'd like to buy the Dolphins low here, given the calls for Ryan Tannehill's benching and Joe Philbin's ouster, but I'm also loath to switch a pick I've made for superstitious reasons which is of course ridiculous. But given it's basically a coin-flip, that's enough to sway me. Back Oakland.

* Game is in London

Dolphins 20 - 17

Packers -1.5 at Bears

I'm not sure why the Packers are favored, but the difference between +/- 1.5 isn't that much. I expect Green Bay's offense to break out. Back the Packers.

Packers 27 - 23

Bills +3 at Texans

The Texans looked terrible in Giants Stadium, but EJ Manuel is struggling with accuracy, so I'll lay the wood at home. Back Houston.

Texans 20 - 16

Titans +7.5 at Colts

This seems like a good time to sell high on the Colts who just rolled over a terrible Jacksonville team on the road. Indy's defense is not good, and Andrew Luck doesn't have a single weapon who scares anyone. Back Tennessee.

Colts 24 - 23

Panthers +3 at Ravens

I'd like to buy the Panthers low, but if three is all they're getting, I'll take the Ravens who are typically tough at home. Back Baltimore.

Ravens 20 - 16

Lions -1.5 at Jets

The Jets really need Eric Decker healthy, and if he is, I think they handle the Lions at home. Detroit should struggle on the ground, and I don't like Matthew Stafford's chances against the blitz. Back New York.

Jets 23 - 19

Buccaneers +7.5 at Steelers

This is a classic, buy-low/sell-high, so much so I'm having a hard time pulling the trigger. But I like the switch to Mike Glennon - he has the arm strength at least to get the ball to his big playmaking receivers, and the Steelers have a lot of injuries on defense. Back the Bucs.

Steelers 23 - 21

LATE GAMES

Jaguars +13 at Chargers

I love the switch to Bortles who's outplayed Chad Henne since he first set foot on an NFL field, and this strikes me as a letdown game for San Diego who's come off two straight wins as an underdog. Back the Jaguars.

Chargers 27 - 20

Eagles +5 at 49ers

This is a strange line. I could see three or even 3.5 at most, but at five, Vegas is really begging people to take the Eagles. That should drive the line down and that it hasn't means someone is still taking the 49ers. Is it the public bettor who can't imagine them going 1-3, or the sharp who knows San Francisco's per-play output is better than its record? While this looks and feels like a trap game, I'll stick with the Eagles.

49ers 27 - 24

Falcons -3 at Vikings

This is typical buy-low/sell-high after the Falcons rolled at home last week. Of course, you have a rookie quarterback making his first start, but at least it's at home against a weak defense. And Matt Ryan looked great against Tampa, but he's always played so much better in the Georgia Dome. Back the Vikings.

Vikings 24 - 23

SUNDAY NIGHT

Saints -3 at Cowboys

The rule with the Saints is back them at home, fade them on the road. You'd be 3-0 if you did that so far this year. The one exception might be the Cowboys who have almost no home field advantage and are sure to give away the cover with a perfectly timed disaster following a Jason Garrett punt in plus territory. Still, I have to hold my nose and follow the rule. Back Dallas.

Cowboys 31 - 30

MONDAY NIGHT

Patriots -3.5 at Chiefs

Maybe Bill Belichick knows something I don't, throwing little dink and dunks to Julian Edelman all day while making Aaron Dobson a healthy scratch and barely surviving at home against the Raiders (actually the game should have been tied but for a ticky-tack holding call negating a Darren McFadden touchdown.) After all, the Pats went 12-4 last year mostly doing that. But until I see Tom Brady stretch the field, or the defense dominate the way it did in Brady's early days, I'm not laying the hook on the road. Back the Chiefs.

Patriots 20 - 19

I went 11-5 in Week 3 to put me at 33-14-1 on the season. Best bets are 6-3-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.