This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 8-6-2, last week, won my best bet barely (Bengals) and went 4-1 in the Super Contest. After a rough first half of the year, I'm getting back to .500, though it would be nice to close strong and break even with the vig (52.38 percent), too.
This week, I especially like the Redskins and Rams.
For the podcast version of the article click here.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Jets +14.5 at Ravens
I made this line 16.5, so I'm on the Ravens. Of course, I'm assuming Lamar Jackson is 100 percent healthy, but it looks like he'll play, and I doubt they'd put him out there if there were significant risk.
Ravens 27 - 10
EARLY GAMES
Buccaneers -3.5 at Lions
This is exactly where I set the line, but I'll fade the Bucs as more than a field goal road favorite -- erratic teams play better as underdogs. Take the points.
Buccaneers 27 - 24
Eagles -4.5 at Redskins
Who are the Eagles to lay points on the road against anyone, especially with the injuries to their receiving corps and now offensive line. Take the home dog.
Eagles 20 - 17
Bears +4.5 at Packers
I made this line 3.5, as the Packers lack playmakers, the Bears have a better defense, and Mitchell Trubisky and Matt Nagy have found something of late. Take the points.
Bears 23 - 20
Patriots -9.5 at Bengals
There's no way Bill Belichick would cheat. How could anyone even suspect him? That said, the Patriots are bad offensively, and this number is too big on the road.
Patriots 23 - 17
Texans +3 at Titans
The Titans seem like the better team right now, but Derrick Henry's hamstring injury concerns me, as he's such a huge part of what makes them go. I'll buy the Texans low off the bad loss.
Titans 24 - 23
Seahawks -6 at Panthers
I made this line seven, as I like the Seahawks to bounce back after a bad loss to the Rams. The Panthers might have packed it in, too.
Seahawks 31 - 17
Broncos +9.5 at Chiefs
I like the Broncos youth movement with Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant. Moreover, the Chiefs offense has not been the same since Week 2. This is too many points. Take Denver.
Chiefs 27 - 20
Dolphins +3.5 at Giants
Maybe Eli Manning can get back to .500 for his career, but the Dolphins are playing hard, and the Giants don't protect the passer, run block or stop the pass. Take the points.
Giants 26 - 23
LATE GAMES
Jaguars +6.5 at Raiders
I thought this line would be about four, but made it six because it's the Raiders last game in Oakland, thinking I'd be on them. But surprisingly, the market has it at 6.5 (and even seven in some places), so I'm on the Jaguars.
Raiders 30 - 24
Browns -2.5 at Cardinals
The Cardinals defense is abominable, and Kyler Murray hasn't been sharp the last two games, but no way I'm laying wood on the road with the Browns. Take the points.
Cardinals 27 - 24
Vikings -2.5 at Chargers
I'm always wrong on the Chargers, so you probably want to fade this pick, but I made this line Vikings plus three. Derwin James is back, the team is finally healthy, and this is the time of year they put together meaningless wins, and everyone laments how tough they'd be if only they were in the playoffs.
Chargers 26 - 20
Falcons +11 at 49ers
The Niners are the best team in the NFL, though this could be a letdown spot after games against the Packers, Ravens and Saints. Still, Kyle Shanahan has this team playing well in plenty of tough spots, so I'll lay the wood.
49ers 31 - 19
Rams -1 at Cowboys
The Rams look like last year's version suddenly, and this is a must-win game for them to have a shot at a Wild Card. They'll get it done against a talented, but defeated Jason Garrett-coached Cowboys team.
Rams 27 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Bills +2 at Steelers
I made this 2.5, so I'm barely on the Steelers. Both are solid teams, and this is pretty much a coin flip.
Steelers 20 - 17
MONDAY NIGHT
Colts +9 at Saints
I made this line 13, so I'm on the Saints who looked sharp offensively in their loss to the 49ers. The Colts made a valiant effort without Andrew Luck, but they're toast now.
Saints 31 - 20
For the podcast version of the article click here.
Last week, I went 8-6-2, won my best bet (the Bengals), and went 4-1 in the Super Contest. I'm now 101-103-4 on the year, 7-7 on best bets and 35-33-2 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.
