Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 15

Last week was rough as I went 7-9 overall, lost my best bet (Chargers) and went 3-2 in the Supercontest.

This week is also tough as eight of my lines were right on the button, and all but one (the Steelers) were within two points. The teams I like best as of Wednesday morning are the Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Bills and Bengals. I struggled most on the Giants-Titans, Buccaneers-Ravens, Redskins-Jaguars and Cardinals-Falcons.

As usual, I'll put my Supercontest picks in the comments.

For the podcast version of this article, click here

THURSDAY NIGHT

Chargers +3.5 at Chiefs

Usually I avoid the road dog on the short week, but I actually think the Chargers are the better team given their superior defense. Accordingly, I made the line 2.5 and am taking the points.

Chiefs 27 - 24

SATURDAY GAMES

Texans -6 at Jets

I hate the Jets, but this is too many points on the road in what could be a bad weather game. Take the home dog.

Texans 23 - 19

Browns +3 at Broncos

This is exactly where I set the line, so it's more or less a coin flip for me. But give me the Browns and Baker Mayfield getting the points.

Broncos 20 - 19

EARLY GAMES

Dolphins +7 at Vikings

Funny, this line was eight on Tuesday, and I was set to take the Dolphins as I made it 7.5, but it's down to seven today, and that means I'm on the Vikings who looked terrible the last two weeks offensively, but at least their defense showed up.

Vikings 24 - 16

Raiders +3 at Bengals

This was exactly where I set the line. Both teams showed up last week, but I'll fade the Raiders off the dramatic win during an early body-clock road game. Lay the wood.

Bengals 24 - 20

Buccaneers +8 at Ravens

This is another game where my line is the actual one, making it a coin flip. The Ravens could force Jameis Winston into mistakes, but the Bucs defense has been adequate of late, and this is a lot of points for the Ravens offense. Total hunch, but I'll take the points.

Ravens 23 - 16

Cowboys +3 at Colts

The Cowboys are a good team, but I set the line at three also, even though I guessed it would be a pick 'em. The Colts need to win, while the Cowboys are riding high after locking up the division and have little chance at a first-round bye. Take the Colts.

Colts 27 - 20

Lions +2.5 at Bills

I like fading the Lions playing their second road game in a row, this time in much tougher conditions. I made this line three, but the oddsmakers are only giving Detroit 2.5. Take the Bills.

Bills 17 - 9

Packers +5.5 at Bears

I thought Aaron Rodgers would go crazy with Mike McCarthy gone, but that didn't happen, and it seems the problems run deeper. I made this line 6.5, as the Bears defense is legitimately good, and Matt Nagy's gimmick offense will be enough. Lay the wood.

Bears 23 - 17

Titans +2.5 at Giants

I made this line three so I'm on the Giants who have turned the corner of sorts, but I'm not strong on this one. The Titans have beaten the Cowboys and Patriots, and if they get pressure on Eli Manning, he's toast.

Giants 23 - 20

Redskins +7 at Jaguars

This is where I set the line too. The Redskins as currently constituted have the 32nd best offense in the league, and it's a big drop from No. 31. That said, the Jaguars are no higher than 30, and both defenses are fairly stout. Give me the points.

Jaguars 10 - 6

Cardinals +8.5 at Falcons

Another game with the exact line I set. The Falcons have been terrible, but this feels like a get-well game at home against a bottom of the barrel Cardinals squad. But the Cardinals have covered big road spreads more often than not, and the Falcons probably shouldn't be laying a number like this against anyone. In the end, my gut says lay the wood, so I'll take the Falcons.

Falcons 31 - 17

LATE GAMES

Seahawks -5 at 49ers

I made this line four, so I'm on the home dog, but not by much. The line was six on Tuesday, and I vastly preferred that, In any event, the 49ers haven't rolled over, and the Seahawks are traveling on a short week. Take the points.

Seahawks 23 - 19

Patriots -1.5 at Steelers

This was the biggest disparity on my board - I made the Steelers three point favorites at home in a must-win game. If the Steelers lose, they're 7-6-1 and travel to New Orleans next week. Not that necessity always leads to a better performance, but the Steelers are better at home, and they should be able to matchup well on both sides of the ball. It also sounds like Ben Roethlisberger is fine to play despite his rib injury. Take the points.

Steelers 26 - 23

SUNDAY NIGHT

Eagles +9.5 at Rams

I'd like to fade both these teams, but this is exactly where I set the line, and I have to pick one. Give me the Rams who should tear up the Eagles' porous secondary at home.

Rams 33 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Saints -6.5 at Panthers

I made this line six, so I'm on the Monday night home dog. The Saints are still arguably the league's best team, but like the Rams, they haven't been in the same kind of rhythm the last few weeks, and the Panthers know them well.

Saints 31 - 27

For the podcast version of this article, click here

Last week, I went 7-9 to put me at 112-91-5 on the year, lost my best bet, the Chargers (8-6 overall), and went 3-2 in the Supercontest (38-31-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.