Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 14

Last week was my best of the year. I went 12-4 overall, won my best bet (the Cowboys) and went 3-2 in the Supercontest. Keep in mind I made the Packers-Cardinals line 13.5 and only won because the market was insane enough to make it 14, i.e., you don't always have to be right, only less wrong than the next guy.

This week, I especially like the Packers and Chargers. As usual, I'll put my Supercontest picks in the comments.

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THURSDAY NIGHT

Jaguars +4 at Titans

I made this line three now that the Jaguars have a caretaker (of sorts) rather than a turnover machine at quarterback, and they can go back to playing defense again. I don't like taking a team off a big win on a short week on the road, but it's only an hour flight, and the Titans are coming off an emotional win too. Take the points.

Jaguars 17 - 16

EARLY GAMES

Ravens +6.5 at Chiefs

I wanted to take the Ravens here because I suspect the Chiefs will sorely miss Kareem Hunt, so I made the line only seven, but the market was ahead of me at 6.5. Accordingly, I'll lay the wood.

Chiefs 27 - 20

Colts +4.5 at Texans

This is exactly where I set the line. The Texans keep burning me, but I expect the Colts to be competitive in a must-win game. Take the points.

Colts 24 - 23

Panthers -1.5 at Browns

I made this line plus three as these are roughly equal teams in my opinion. Maybe the Panthers are much better as this line suggests, but I won't bet on it. Take the home dog.

Browns 27 - 24

Falcons +5.5 at Packers

These are roughly equal teams, but I set the line at 7.5 virtually assuring I'd be on the Packers for their first post-Mike McCarthy game. I expect them to play inspired ball to send a message. Lay the wood.

Packers 37 - 23

Saints -8 at Buccaneers

I set this line at 7.5, but guessed it would be eight. The Saints are still a great team, their loss in Dallas notwithstanding, but the Bucs defense has shown a pulse of late, and Jameis Winston isn't making mistakes. Take the points.

Saints 30 - 23

Jets +3.5 at Bills

I set this line at 4.5, but have some misgivings. The Bills killed them in New York a few weeks ago and have the better defense, but as exciting as Josh Allen is, he's also plenty volatile and therefore doesn't play well as a favorite. Still, I'm laying the wood.

Bills 24 - 19

Patriots -7.5 at Dolphins

It's rarely wise to fade the Pats, but I made this line 5.5 as the Dolphins know them and often play them tough in Miami. Ryan Tannehill finally looks healthy too. Take the home dog.

Patriots 24 - 20

Giants -3.5 at Redskins

This line was at Redskins minus 1.5 Tuesday morning, and I was all over the Giants, who I made three-point road favorites, at that number. But the Mark Sanchez adjustment was made overnight, and now the Giants are laying 3.5. Accordingly, I have to hold my nose and take the Redskins.

Giants 20 - 17

LATE GAMES

Broncos -5.5 at 49ers

I like what the Broncos have done of late, with Case Keenum taking on more of a caretaker role and letting Phillip Lindsay and the defense do their thing. But this is their second straight road game, and the 49ers still seem to be trying. Take the points.

Broncos 23 - 19

Bengals +14 at Chargers

Try not to laugh, but I made the Chargers 20.5-point favorites and predicted the real line would be 19.5. Is the market giving Cincy way too much credit for early-season performance that's no longer relevant? I think so. Lay the wood,

Chargers 34 - 9

Lions -2.5 at Cardinals

I originally set this line at three in a game between roughly-equal doormats, then changed my mind and went to a pick 'em because Matthew Stafford has to be considered better than Josh Rosen. Apparently, my move wasn't enough as the actual line has the Lions as road favorites. Accordingly, I'm on the Cardinals again.

Lions 20 - 19

Eagles +3.5 at Cowboys

This is where I set the line. The Cowboys strike me as the better team, but I like fading them off the massive Saints win, even if I'm still skeptical about the Eagles after their only marginally impressive defeat of the Mark Sanchez-Redskins. Take the points.

Cowboys 23 - 20

Steelers -10.5 at Raiders

I made this line 9.5 as the Steelers aren't great on the road, and they're coming off a bad loss on Sunday night. Take the points.

Steelers 27 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Rams -3 at Bears

The Rams haven't impressed me of late, struggling for too long against the Lions and not blowing teams away the way they were early in the year. If the Bears have Mitchell Trubisky, I'd make this line a pick 'em. With Chase Daniel, I'd probably need to get at least four. I'll split the difference, hope for Trubisky and take the Bears.

Rams 20 - 19

MONDAY NIGHT

Vikings +3.5 at Seahawks

This is where I set the line. The Vikings were so unimpressive in New England, and in Seattle is usually not the place to get well. But the Vikings are second in the league against the run (3.7 YPC allowed), so they match up well against Seattle's run-heavy attack. Take the points.

Seahawks 24 - 23

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Last week, I went 12-4 to put me at 105-82-5 on the year, won my best bet, the Cowboys (8-5 overall), and went 3-2 in the Supercontest (35-29-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.