This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
It was only an 8-7 week, but I won my best bet, the Seahawks, easily. The other team I liked, the Saints, did not fare as well.
This week, I especially like the Chiefs and Bills, and I could see the Browns getting their first win. Other places where I found value were the Jaguars, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers and Rams. I also like the Ravens in New England, believe it or not.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Raiders +3 at Chiefs
I usually like the home team on a short week, and I think the Chiefs are slightly better anyway. (I made this line four.) Lay the wood.
Chiefs 31 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Broncos +1 at Titans
I set this at Broncos minus 1.5, assuming Trevor Siemian is playing. I don't feel strongly about this one as the Titans are strong where Denver is weaker (you run on them and attack them over the middle with the tight end), but it's still hard to score much when your outside receivers are shut down. Take the point.
Broncos 20 - 19
Chargers +1 at Panthers
I made this line 2.5 as the Chargers are the better team, and it's possible the Panthers have checked out, especially after the ridiculous charade of Cam Newton's one-play benching. But I'm inclined to buy low here off the Seattle blowout. Take Carolina.
Panthers 23 - 20
Texans +6 at Colts
I wanted to take the Colts here, so I made this line 5.5, but the market
It was only an 8-7 week, but I won my best bet, the Seahawks, easily. The other team I liked, the Saints, did not fare as well.
This week, I especially like the Chiefs and Bills, and I could see the Browns getting their first win. Other places where I found value were the Jaguars, Texans, Buccaneers, 49ers and Rams. I also like the Ravens in New England, believe it or not.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Raiders +3 at Chiefs
I usually like the home team on a short week, and I think the Chiefs are slightly better anyway. (I made this line four.) Lay the wood.
Chiefs 31 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Broncos +1 at Titans
I set this at Broncos minus 1.5, assuming Trevor Siemian is playing. I don't feel strongly about this one as the Titans are strong where Denver is weaker (you run on them and attack them over the middle with the tight end), but it's still hard to score much when your outside receivers are shut down. Take the point.
Broncos 20 - 19
Chargers +1 at Panthers
I made this line 2.5 as the Chargers are the better team, and it's possible the Panthers have checked out, especially after the ridiculous charade of Cam Newton's one-play benching. But I'm inclined to buy low here off the Seattle blowout. Take Carolina.
Panthers 23 - 20
Texans +6 at Colts
I wanted to take the Colts here, so I made this line 5.5, but the market beat me to it and went all the way to six. Fair enough, I'll hold my nose and take the Texans.
Colts 24 - 20
Bengals -6 at Browns
Of course, I don't want to take the Browns, but I made this line 4.5, and it's six. Put differently, it would be 12.5 in Cincinnati in a division rival game with the dog coming off its bye. That's too much for a mediocre Cincy team no matter who's at quarterback for Cleveland. Take the points.
Browns 21 - 20
Steelers -2 at Bills
I did a double-take when I saw this line. I had it Steelers plus three. Pittsburgh has not been good on the road, the Bills are a tough team, and weather could be a factor. Take the home dog.
Bills 27 - 16
Cardinals +1 at Dolphins
The book loves the Cardinals for some reason, but I'll buy low on the Dolphins coming off an embarrassing loss in Baltimore. Lay the point.
Dolphins 20 - 17
Bears +8.5 at Lions
I had this line at eight, so that puts me on the Bears. The Lions defense did play very well in New Orleans, so they could blow Chicago out, but the Bears have competed more often than not, and this is a divisional game. Take the points.
Lions 23 - 16
Vikings -3.5 at Jaguars
This seems like too many points on the road for a team that can't score on offense. (I made it a pick 'em.) Minnesota will need a special teams or defensive TD to cover this, and they might get it, but I won't bet on that. Take the points.
Vikings 16 - 13
Redskins -1 at Eagles
I had this line at Redskins -1.5, so I'm narrowly on Washington. On the one hand, the Eagles defense has been nasty at home. On the other they seem to have fallen apart of late. But even if the good version of the Eagles shows, this should be a tight game. Take the Redskins.
Redskins 26 - 20
LATE GAMES
Saints +2.5 at Buccaneers
I had this line at 3.5 as Tampa has played better of late, and the Saints aren't as good on the road. Lay the wood.
Buccaneers 27 - 23
Jets +2.5 at 49ers
I set this line at an even three. As bad as the 49ers are, why are the Bryce Petty Jets not getting the full three on the road? Lay the wood.
49ers 23 - 20
Seahawks -2.5 at Packers
I didn't want to take the Packers, but as a home dog at Lambeau against a Seahawks squad that's much better at home, I can live with it. I made the line 1.5. Take Green Bay.
Packers 24 - 23
Falcons -6 at Rams
I had this line at 3.5, which would be 9.5 in Atlanta. Maybe that's a little light, but the Rams defense can be nasty at home, and the Rams offense should at least move the ball this week. Take the home dog.
Falcons 20 - 16
SUNDAY NIGHT
Cowboys -3 at Giants
I had this as Cowboys minus 1.5, so I'm on the Giants. I don't feel strongly about it, though, especially now that it looks like Jason Pierre-Paul is slated to miss the game. The Giants defense is pretty good, though, and if they can slow Dallas' running game, they could keep up. Take the home dog.
Cowboys 24 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Ravens +7.5 at Patriots
I had this line at 7.5, so I could go either way here. With Rob Gronkowski out and the Ravens playing well, I'll take the points - John Harbaugh has had more success in Gillette Stadium than most coaches, and neither he nor Joe Flacco will be intimidated by the occasion.
Patriots 24 - 20
I went 8-7 in Week 13 to go 91-97-4 on the season. I'm 3-2 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.
