Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 13

Last week wasn't bad - 9-6 overall, I won my best bet (Broncos) and went 4-1 in the Supercontest, but it still felt frustrating. Maybe that's because I went 1-2 on Thanksgiving - the Falcons and Redskins losses were painful - and was 9-4 heading into Sunday night. Essentially four of the five standalone games went against me, so most of my time was spent losing even if the overall mark was good.

This week, it seemed like Vegas went crazy overcompensating for big favorites cruising to easy covers. Of course, it's possible that in the new pinball NFL this is now the norm, but I could not make my lines high enough to keep up in some instances. Accordingly I'm on some ugly dogs.

Teams I like best this week are the Cowboys, Falcons, Browns and Broncos. As usual, I'll post my Supercontest picks in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Saints -7.5 at Cowboys

This is an insane line, but I suppose the books are getting torched by the Saints every week, so they took a drastic measure. I made this line 3.5 as the Cowboys are tough at home, and they'll keep the ball out of Drew Brees' hands. Take the points.

Saints 27 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Colts -4 at Jaguars

I made this line exactly four, so I could go either way. Coin flip, but give me the Jaguars.

Colts 20 - 17

Panthers -3.5 at Buccaneers

I made this line 2.5, so the Bucs are an easy call for me here. The Panthers offense looks good, but the Bucs should move the ball and keep up. Take the points.

Panthers 27 - 24

Ravens +1 at Falcons

This line opened as Ravens minus two, which was bizarre. I had it as Ravens plus three, and while the market has restored some sanity, it hasn't gone far enough. Take the Falcons.

Falcons 23 - 20

Browns +6 at Texans

I've probably underestimated the Texans, and it's cost me the last few weeks, but I think the Browns are for real, and these are roughly equal teams. Take the points.

Browns 24 - 23

Bills +5 at Dolphins

This is a tough one. I made the line 3.5, but have a Dolphins feeling. Most of the time when I've gone against my lines I've lost, so I'll stick with the Bills, but it makes me uneasy, and I wouldn't touch this with real money.

Dolphins 20 - 17

Bears -4.5 at Giants

We don't know yet whether Mitchell Trubisky will play, and Chase Daniel lacks his mobility and arm strength. As such, I made this line three, and I'm taking the Giants.

Bears 20 - 19

Broncos -5 at Bengals

I've been picking mostly dogs this week as Vegas has gone overboard to compensate for the favorites covering so reliably, but I'm laying the wood here. The Broncos are a decent team, and the Bengals are bankrupt on both sides of the ball.

Broncos 24 - 13

Rams -10 at Lions

I made this line 10.5, hoping not to have to take the Lions, and it was just enough. The Rams are well rested and should go to town against a toothless Detroit squad.

Rams 33 - 16

Cardinals +14 at Packers

The Packers are mediocre, but this is their kind of spot - a home game against a weak opponent. Accordingly, I made the line an absurd 13.5 to ensure I'd be on them. So you can imagine my surprise when I saw it wasn't enough. Sometimes, the public wants it worse than you do, and you have to let it go. Take the points.

Packers 30 - 17

LATE GAMES

Chiefs -15 at Raiders

There's no way I was taking the Raiders here, so I made the Chiefs ridiculous 14.5-point favorites on the road. That's the equivalent of 20.5 at home, and we haven't seen lines in the 20s since the 2007 Pats, and that was one of the greatest teams of all time. But as was the case with the Packers, it wasn't enough. Take the Raiders.

Chiefs 38 - 24

Jets +8 at Titans

This one annoys me. I wanted to take the Titans, so I made the line eight, but the initial line (as of Tuesday morning) was 9.5, and I was actually happy to take the Jets with that many points. But now I see it's moved right to where I had it, and that forces me to choose. Give me the Jets.

Titans 23 - 17

Vikings +5 at Patriots

I made this line 3.5, so I'm on the Vikings, but I liked it a lot better when I saw it at six. The Vikings defense has come around, and these are roughly equal teams. Take the points.

Patriots 23 - 20

49ers +10 at Seahawks

I made this line a whopping 13, the one time I seriously overshot to lock in a big favorite. The set-up worries me a bit - the Seahawks just won a massive road game, and now they get a division rival that knows them. But Nick Mullens is overmatched, and the Seahawks offense is hitting its stride. Lay the wood.

Seahawks 30 - 17

SUNDAY NIGHT

Chargers +3.5 at Steelers

I made this line three, so I'm on the Chargers, but I have misgivings. The Steelers are much better at home, and the Chargers are missing Melvin Gordon who is a key player in their offense, particularly in the passing game. Still, with Joey Bosa looking like he's all the way back, I'm taking the points.

Steelers 27 - 24

MONDAY NIGHT

Redskins +6.5 at Eagles

The Colt McCoy Redskins are a bad offense, but their defense is stout, and I can't keep giving the Eagles credit for last year. Take the points.

Eagles 20 - 16

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Last week, I went 9-6 to put me at 93-78-5 on the year, won my best bet, the Broncos (7-5 overall), and went 4-1 in the Supercontest (32-27-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.