This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 7-9 last week, and the teams I especially liked went 2-2. There's not much else to say about it.
This week, I particularly like the Seahawks and Saints. I felt there was some value on the Redskins, Bengals, Bears and Dolphins, too.
Consider the Seahawks a best bet.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Cowboys -3.5 at Vikings
This is where I set the line. The Cowboys are so unstoppable offensively, there's little a defense can do, particularly one like the Vikings that's especially tough against the pass. But I expect Minnesota to show up at home and keep it close enough. Take the points.
Cowboys 23 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Broncos -5 at Jaguars
I set this line at three. I was actually impressed by Trevor Siemian last week, but that was a tough physical game on a Sunday night against a division rival, and now the Broncos have to travel to the east coast. Take the points.
Broncos 20 - 19
Chiefs +3.5 at Falcons
I set this line at three, seeing these as roughly equal teams. The key for Kansas City will be getting to Matt Ryan. On offense the Chiefs should be able to run the ball at least. Take the points.
Falcons 27 - 24
Texans +6 at Packers
I was wrong about the Packers last week, and there's a chance I overcompensated here by making the line 6.5. But I liked what I saw from Aaron Rodgers Monday night, and the Texans are arguably the
I went 7-9 last week, and the teams I especially liked went 2-2. There's not much else to say about it.
This week, I particularly like the Seahawks and Saints. I felt there was some value on the Redskins, Bengals, Bears and Dolphins, too.
Consider the Seahawks a best bet.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Cowboys -3.5 at Vikings
This is where I set the line. The Cowboys are so unstoppable offensively, there's little a defense can do, particularly one like the Vikings that's especially tough against the pass. But I expect Minnesota to show up at home and keep it close enough. Take the points.
Cowboys 23 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Broncos -5 at Jaguars
I set this line at three. I was actually impressed by Trevor Siemian last week, but that was a tough physical game on a Sunday night against a division rival, and now the Broncos have to travel to the east coast. Take the points.
Broncos 20 - 19
Chiefs +3.5 at Falcons
I set this line at three, seeing these as roughly equal teams. The key for Kansas City will be getting to Matt Ryan. On offense the Chiefs should be able to run the ball at least. Take the points.
Falcons 27 - 24
Texans +6 at Packers
I was wrong about the Packers last week, and there's a chance I overcompensated here by making the line 6.5. But I liked what I saw from Aaron Rodgers Monday night, and the Texans are arguably the worst offense in the league right now. Lay the wood at Lambeau.
Packers 24 - 17
Eagles -1.5 at Bengals
The Eagles have been tough at home this year, Monday night's game notwithstanding, but on the road they shouldn't be laying points against a league-average team. Take the Bengals.
Bengals 21 - 20
Lions +5.5 at Saints
I made this line six as the Saints are especially tough at home, have been better on defense of late and should light up the Lions pass defense. Lay the wood.
Saints 33 - 24
49ers +1.5 at Bears
I set this line at three, as these are roughly equal teams, given their current states, but this line implies the Niners are better. I think that's presumptuous. Take the Bears.
Bears 24 - 20
Rams +13.5 at Patriots
I set this line at 14.5. It's probably the sucker side, but Bill Belichick's defenses often confuse young QBs, and the Pats offense is especially good at home. Lay the wood.
Patriots 34 - 13
Dolphins +3.5 at Ravens
These are roughly equal teams in my opinion, so I made the line three. The Ravens are tougher at home, but there's no reason to lay the extra hook. Back Miami.
Ravens 23 - 20
LATE GAMES
Bills +3 at Raiders
This is the line I set too, but I was hoping it would be higher, so I could take the Bills. The Raiders keep winning, but it has a smoke-and-mirrors quality - they make a few big plays here and there, but rarely seem to excel down-in and down-out for a team with their record. The Bills were already solid and now seemingly have a healthy Sammy Watkins back. I'll take the points.
Bills 30 - 27
Buccaneers +4 at Chargers
I pegged this line at three as I think these are roughly equal teams. Jameis Winston is playing better of late as is Tampa's defense. Take the points.
Chargers 26 - 23
Redskins +2.5 at Cardinals
I had this as a pick 'em. The book is still respecting Arizona too much. I do trust the Redskins more at home, and the Cardinals are much tougher in their home venue, but I'm still taking the points.
Redskins 27 - 23
Giants +6 at Steelers
I made this line 4.5. The Giants have a terrible coach who sits on small leads and rarely pushes the pedal down, but that shouldn't be a problem against the Steelers who will score points at home and force the Giants to keep up. The Giants also have the better defense. Take the points.
Steelers 29 - 27
SUNDAY NIGHT
Panthers +6.5 at Seahawks
I had this line at a whopping 10.5, so this is my best bet. I love buying the Seahawks low off the ugly showing in Tampa, and like the Cardinals, the Panthers are overrated by the book. Lay the wood.
Seahawks 31 - 17
MONDAY NIGHT
Colts -1.5 at Jets
I had this game as a pick 'em, so I suppose I'm obligated to hold my nose and take the Jets. I really don't like backing Ryan Fitzpatrick against Andrew Luck, but given the venue and the line, I'm doing just that. Take the Jets.
Colts 24 - 23
I went 7-9 in Week 12 to go 83-90-4 on the season. I'm 2-2 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.
