Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 12

I went 7-6-1 last week, but it was actually pretty good. I won both my best bets (Vikings and Seahawks), and I went 3-1-1 on the games I liked most with my only loss being the Browns who were covering in the final minutes before a fumble-TD at their own goal line. Moreover, my other losses included the Rams (who were up 10-0 and getting 1.5 with five minutes left) and the Texans who were flat-out robbed by the refs (and their own moronic coach). I'm sure a few bounces went my way too (Vikings got two non-offensive TDs, for example.)

This week, I especially like the Vikings, Saints, Chiefs and Eagles. I might make one a best bet in the comments.

THANKSGIVING DAY

Vikings +2.5 at Lions

I actually set this line at 2.5, so I could go either way here. I think the Vikings are probably the better team, and I trust Mike Zimmer, who botched the end game the first time around, a little more than Jim Caldwell. Take the points.

Vikings 20 - 16

Redskins +7 at Cowboys

I set this line at 6.5, so I'm on the Redskins here. The Cowboys have such a high floor offensively, but the Redskins have the weapons to keep up. Back Washington.

Cowboys 27 - 24

THURSDAY NIGHT

Steelers -8.5 at Colts

Andrew Luck is worth quite a bit, but I'd have had this as Colts minus three, and no quarterback is worth 11.5. As such, I'm taking Indy.

Steelers 23 - 16

EARLY GAMES

Chargers -1 at Texans

I despise the Texans and their cowardly coach, but they should have covered against the Raiders Monday night. I had the Chargers plus 2.5, and I already regret having to back Houston again, but I'll hold my nose and do it.

Texans 23 - 20

Titans -5 at Bears

I set this line at six, now that Jay Cutler is out and Matt Barkley likely in, and I'm happy to take Tennessee here with Marcus Mariota playing well and a defense that's not awful. Lay the wood.

Titans 27 - 17

Jaguars +7.5 at Bills

I made this line only 6.5, and maybe that was too low. The Bills don't have name players, but they're physical, they get to the quarterback and they run block well. In any event, I'm hoping for the backdoor cover as that's the only way the Jaguars ever seem to get it done. Take the points.

Bills 27 - 20

Bengals +4.5 at Ravens

The loss of A.J. Green moved this line a bit, but these are still roughly equal teams, and I'll take the extra point and a half. I had made it 3.5, thinking Vegas would likely steer me to Cincinnati.

Ravens 21 - 17

Cardinals +4.5 at Falcons

I made this line 5.5 as the Falcons have been the better, more consistent team all year, and I especially dislike Arizona on the road. Lay the wood.

Falcons 30 - 24

49ers +7.5 at Dolphins

I set this line at nine as the Dolphins might have turned a corner. It's worth noting the Niners have played decently the last two weeks. Still, I'm laying the wood.

Dolphins 27 - 17

Rams +7 at Saints

I had this line at nine as well. The Saints are a decent team, and their defense isn't as bad as it once was. The Jared Goff Rams aren't likely to keep up in New Orleans.

Saints 27 - 13

Giants -7 at Browns

The Giants sat on a six-point lead for 22 minutes Sunday, and their biggest margin of victory all year - a seven-point win over the Rams - came at home. On the road, there's no way I'm laying a TD, even against the Browns. (I set this line at 5.5, incidentally). Take the home dog.

Giants 23 - 17

LATE GAMES

Seahawks -5.5 at Buccaneers

I set this line at 4.5 and was dismayed to see it meant I was taking the Bucs. Seattle might be the best team in the NFL, but Jameis Winston is playing better, and this is a decent-sized number at home.

Seahawks 23 - 19

Panthers +3.5 at Raiders

I wanted to fade the Raiders after their sickeningly lucky win over the Texans, so I made this line only 4.5. Unfortunately, Vegas took it a step further, beating me to the punch. As such, I'm laying the points.

Raiders 27 - 23

Patriots -8 at Jets

I set this line at 8.5, so I'm on New England. The Patriots have covered 58 percent of the time since 2003 despite being a public team because the books haven't accounted for their propensity to keep scoring even after the game is no longer in doubt. Every other team trades margin of victory for time off the clock, but the Patriots break the mold. I'm laying the wood.

Patriots 33 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Chiefs +3.5 at Broncos

These are roughly equal teams, so I set the line at three, but the Chiefs are getting the extra hook. Take the points.

Chiefs 20 - 17

MONDAY NIGHT

Packers +3.5 at Eagles

I set this line at 3.5, so I could go either way here, but the Packers can't defend against anyone, and the Eagles shut down Matt Ryan in Philly, something the Seahawks couldn't do in Seattle and the Broncos failed to do in Denver. Moreover, Aaron Rodgers is putting up great fantasy numbers, but getting only 6.7 YPA on the year. Take the Eagles.

Eagles 27 - 23

I went 7-6-1 in Week 11 to go 76-81-4 on the season. I'm 2-2 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.